Welcome to week 4. If you are not starting a single questionable player, then you are indeed lucky! Custom (to the league settings you create) gold-mining charts are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval.

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, NFL, FantasyPros, ESPN and FFToday. The data for this article was collected on 09/27/17. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .

Projection Table

Projection Graphs Standard Leagues

RB

Standard Scoring League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Tarik Cohen, Duke Johnson and Terrance West are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
DeMarco Murray, Mike Gillislee, Jacquizz Rodgers, Alvin Kamara and Rex Burkhead are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Leonard Fournette, Chris Carson, Isaiah Crowell, Javorius Allen and LeGarrette Blount are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

DeVante Parker, Sammy Watkins, Rishard Matthews, Devin Funchess and Tyler Lockett are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews and Tyler Lockett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Tyreek Hill, J.J. Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Terrelle Pryor and Kelvin Benjamin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Standard Scoring League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and DeShone Kizer are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Mike Glennon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Standard Scoring League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Zach Ertz, Charles Clay, Benjamin Watson, Martellus Bennett and Cameron Brate are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Zach Miller, Jack Doyle and Seth DeValve are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Jared Cook, Jimmy Graham, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and Ed Dickson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues

RB

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Mike Gillislee, James White, Alvin Kamara, Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Leonard Fournette, Chris Carson, Isaiah Crowell, Javorius Allen and LeGarrette Blount are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Rishard Matthews, J.J. Nelson and Devin Funchess are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Dez Bryant and Tyler Lockett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson, J.J. Nelson, Terrelle Pryor and Kelvin Benjamin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and DeShone Kizer are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Mike Glennon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, Benjamin Watson, Martellus Bennett and Cameron Brate are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Jack Doyle, Coby Fleener, A.J. Derby, Maxx Williams and Dion Sims are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook, Cameron Brate, Austin Hooper and Ed Dickson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues

RB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Mike Gillislee, James White, Alvin Kamara, Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Leonard Fournette, Chris Carson, Isaiah Crowell, Javorius Allen and LeGarrette Blount are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Rishard Matthews, J.J. Nelson and Devin Funchess are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Dez Bryant and Tyler Lockett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson, J.J. Nelson, Terrelle Pryor and Kelvin Benjamin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and DeShone Kizer are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Mike Glennon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, Benjamin Watson, Martellus Bennett and Cameron Brate are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Jack Doyle, Coby Fleener, A.J. Derby, Maxx Williams and Dion Sims are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook, Cameron Brate, Austin Hooper and Ed Dickson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Defense/Special Teams and Kickers

DST

Standard Scoring DST

From the graph below notice that:

Titans, Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Cardinals are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Buccaneers, Colts, Texans, Bears and Dolphins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Titans, Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Cardinals are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

K

Standard Scoring K

From the graph below notice that:

Mason Crosby, Ryan Succop, Younghoe Koo, Chris Boswell and Connor Barth are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Phil Dawson, Brandon McManus, Ryan Succop, Younghoe Koo and Zane Gonzalez are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Dan Bailey, Blair Walsh, Jake Elliott, Dustin Hopkins and Greg Zuerlein are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.