Welcome to week 4!

Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, ESPN, NFL, NumberFire, FantasyPros, FantasySharks, FFToday, FleaFlicker and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article was collected on 09/27/18. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .

Projection Table

Projection Graphs Standard Leagues

RB

Standard Scoring League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

  • Matt Breida, Aaron Jones, T.J. Yeldon, Corey Clement and Devonta Freeman are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins, Jordan Wilkins, Tavon Austin and Theo Riddick are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Giovani Bernard, Sony Michel, LeSean McCoy, Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

  • Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, John Brown, Kenny Stills and Josh Gordon are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Robert Woods, Corey Davis and Calvin Ridley are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Callaway, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin and Josh Gordon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Standard Scoring League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Standard Scoring League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

  • Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron and Jared Cook are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, George Kittle, Austin Hooper and Charles Clay are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Jack Doyle, Jake Butt, Rhett Ellison, Mark Andrews and Jesse James are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues

RB

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Giovani Bernard, Matt Breida, T.J. Yeldon, Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Leonard Fournette, Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins, Isaiah Crowell and Tavon Austin are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Giovani Bernard, LeSean McCoy, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

  • Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Kenny Stills and John Brown are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, Jordy Nelson and Ryan Grant are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins, Quincy Enunwa, Randall Cobb, Antonio Callaway and Doug Baldwin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

  • Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • O.J. Howard, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki, Nick Vannett and Virgil Green are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Jack Doyle, Jake Butt, Rhett Ellison, Jonnu Smith and Mark Andrews are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues

RB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Giovani Bernard, Matt Breida, T.J. Yeldon, Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Leonard Fournette, Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins, Isaiah Crowell and Tavon Austin are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Giovani Bernard, LeSean McCoy, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

  • Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Kenny Stills and John Brown are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, Jordy Nelson and Ryan Grant are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins, Quincy Enunwa, Randall Cobb, Antonio Callaway and Doug Baldwin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

QB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

  • Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • O.J. Howard, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki, Nick Vannett and Virgil Green are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Jack Doyle, Jake Butt, Rhett Ellison, Jonnu Smith and Mark Andrews are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Defense/Special Teams and Kickers

DST

Standard Scoring DST

From the graph below notice that:

  • Bears, Rams, Patriots, Chiefs and Browns are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Buccaneers, Vikings, Bills, Dolphins and Bengals are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Chargers, Eagles, Packers, Bears and Rams are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

K

Standard Scoring K

From the graph below notice that:

  • Caleb Sturgis, Chris Boswell, Brandon McManus, Randy Bullock and Aldrick Rosas are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Justin Tucker, Robbie Gould, Brett Maher, Steven Hauschka and Greg Joseph are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Caleb Sturgis, Sam Ficken, Mason Crosby, Randy Bullock and Phil Dawson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.