Welcome to week 4!
Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.
The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, FantasyPros, FantasySharks, NFL, NumberFire and FleaFlicker. The data for this article was collected on 09/28/21. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .
Projection Table
Projection Graphs Standard Leagues
RB
Standard Scoring League Running Backs
From the graph below notice that:
- Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison, Elijah Mitchell and Latavius Murray are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- David Montgomery, Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon, Devin Singletary and Jamaal Williams are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, Alexander Mattison, Elijah Mitchell and Damien Williams are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Cordarrelle Patterson and Hunter Renfrow are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Mike Williams, Odell Beckham, Jamison Crowder, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
QB
Standard Scoring League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Nick Foles and Taysom Hill are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Standard Scoring League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Anthony Firkser and Tommy Tremble are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Rob Gronkowski, Logan Thomas, Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram and C.J. Uzomah are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Darren Waller, George Kittle, Anthony Firkser, David Njoku and Tommy Tremble are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues
RB
Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison and Elijah Mitchell are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Devin Singletary, Ronald Jones and Darrel Williams are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Javonte Williams, Alexander Mattison, Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell and Damien Williams are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jamison Crowder are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Marvin Jones, Cordarrelle Patterson and Hunter Renfrow are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jamison Crowder, Will Fuller and Sterling Shepard are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
QB
Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Nick Foles and Taysom Hill are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Anthony Firkser, Tommy Tremble and Donald Parham are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- C.J. Uzomah, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly, Ryan Griffin and Hunter Long are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Darren Waller, David Njoku, Tommy Tremble, Dan Arnold and Kyle Rudolph are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues
RB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison and Elijah Mitchell are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Devin Singletary, Ronald Jones and Darrel Williams are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Javonte Williams, Alexander Mattison, Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell and Damien Williams are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jamison Crowder are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Marvin Jones, Cordarrelle Patterson and Hunter Renfrow are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jamison Crowder, Will Fuller and Sterling Shepard are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
QB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Nick Foles and Taysom Hill are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Anthony Firkser, Tommy Tremble and Donald Parham are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- C.J. Uzomah, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly, Ryan Griffin and Hunter Long are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Darren Waller, David Njoku, Tommy Tremble, Dan Arnold and Kyle Rudolph are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Kickers
K
Standard Scoring K
From the graph below notice that:
- Daniel Carlson, Mason Crosby, Rodrigo Blankenship, Matt Prater and Jake Elliott are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Justin Tucker, Greg Zuerlein, Randy Bullock, Cairo Santos and Zane Gonzalez are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Matt Gay, Harrison Butker, Ryan Succop, Matt Prater and Jake Elliott are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
