Welcome to week 17!
Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.
The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: ESPN, FantasySharks, NFL, FantasyPros, FleaFlicker, NumberFire and FFToday. The data for this article was collected on 12/26/24. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .
Projection Table
Projection Graphs Standard Leagues
QB
Standard Scoring League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Aidan O’Connell, Cooper Rush and Kenny Pickett are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Aidan O’Connell and Mac Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Spencer Rattler are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
RB
Standard Scoring League Running Backs
From the graph below notice that:
- Bucky Irving, Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Alvin Kamara and J.K. Dobbins are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Bijan Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Antonio Gibson, Craig Reynolds and Kenny McIntosh are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Isaac Guerendo, Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown and Zay Flowers are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Mike Evans, Quentin Johnston, Jerry Jeudy, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Tre Tucker are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Standard Scoring League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Cade Otton, Jake Ferguson and Will Dissly are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Travis Kelce, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Mike Gesicki, Austin Hooper and Tyler Conklin are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Brock Bowers, Jonnu Smith, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Aidan O’Connell, Cooper Rush and Kenny Pickett are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Aidan O’Connell and Mac Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Spencer Rattler are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
RB
Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins and Craig Reynolds are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Saquon Barkley, Antonio Gibson, Trey Benson, Craig Reynolds and Rasheen Ali are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Isaac Guerendo, Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Nico Collins, Jauan Jennings, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, A.J. Brown, Jalen McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet, Grant Calcaterra and Hayden Hurst are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Foster Moreau, Michael Mayer, Tommy Tremble, Tanner Hudson and Luke Farrell are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Aidan O’Connell, Cooper Rush and Kenny Pickett are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Aidan O’Connell and Mac Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Spencer Rattler are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
RB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins and Craig Reynolds are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Saquon Barkley, Antonio Gibson, Trey Benson, Craig Reynolds and Rasheen Ali are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Isaac Guerendo, Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
WR
Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Nico Collins, Jauan Jennings, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, A.J. Brown, Jalen McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
TE
Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet, Grant Calcaterra and Hayden Hurst are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Foster Moreau, Michael Mayer, Tommy Tremble, Tanner Hudson and Luke Farrell are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
Projection Graphs Kickers
K
Standard Scoring K
From the graph below notice that:
- Chris Boswell, Cameron Dicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Jason Sanders and Brandon Aubrey are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Justin Tucker, Jake Moody, Joey Slye, Nick Folk and Graham Gano are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Zane Gonzalez, Riley Patterson, Cade York, Anders Carlson and Brandon Aubrey are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
