make_rmd.knit

Welcome to week 1!

Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: FantasySharks, NFL, NumberFire, FantasyPros, FleaFlicker and ESPN. The data for this article was collected on 09/03/25. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .

Projection Table

Projection Graphs Standard Leagues

QB

Standard Scoring League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, J.J. McCarthy, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

RB

Standard Scoring League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

Nick Chubb, Ollie Gordon, Joe Mixon, Ray Davis and Najee Harris are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier and Kendre Miller are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Dylan Sampson, Ollie Gordon and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers and Xavier Worthy are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Courtland Sutton, Khalil Shakir, Xavier Legette, Keenan Allen and Wan’Dale Robinson are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Brian Thomas Jr., Tyreek Hill, Drake London, Terry McLaurin and Darnell Mooney are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Standard Scoring League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Tyler Warren, Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz, Isaiah Likely and AJ Barner are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, Jonnu Smith, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Juwan Johnson are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, George Kittle, David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Cade Otton and Isaiah Likely are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues

QB

Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, J.J. McCarthy, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

RB

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Ray Davis and Najee Harris are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier and Kendre Miller are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Dylan Sampson, Ollie Gordon and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy and Travis Hunter are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Malik Nabers, Courtland Sutton, Matthew Golden, Khalil Shakir and Wan’Dale Robinson are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Justin Jefferson, Ricky Pearsall, Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney and Adam Thielen are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Hunter Henry, AJ Barner, Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely and Payne Durham are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
T.J. Hockenson, Brenton Strange, Noah Gray, Michael Mayer and Gunnar Helm are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, David Njoku, Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely and Payne Durham are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues

QB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback

From the graph below notice that:

Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, J.J. McCarthy, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson and Tyler Shough are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

RB

Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Ray Davis and Najee Harris are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier and Kendre Miller are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Dylan Sampson, Ollie Gordon and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

WR

Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver

From the graph below notice that:

Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy and Travis Hunter are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Malik Nabers, Courtland Sutton, Matthew Golden, Khalil Shakir and Wan’Dale Robinson are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Justin Jefferson, Ricky Pearsall, Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney and Adam Thielen are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

TE

Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End

From the graph below notice that:

Hunter Henry, AJ Barner, Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely and Payne Durham are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
T.J. Hockenson, Brenton Strange, Noah Gray, Michael Mayer and Gunnar Helm are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, David Njoku, Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely and Payne Durham are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Projection Graphs Kickers

K

Standard Scoring K

From the graph below notice that:

Brandon Aubrey, Cameron Dicker, Jason Myers, Younghoe Koo and Jake Moody are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
Riley Patterson, Spencer Shrader, Ryan Fitzgerald, Andre Szmyt and Joey Slye are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
On the other hand, Brandon Aubrey, Cameron Dicker, Cam Little, Will Reichard and Jason Myers are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.