Welcome to week 16!
Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.
The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS, NumberFire, FFToday, ESPN, FantasyPros, FleaFlicker, FantasySharks and NFL. The data for this article was collected on 12/18/25. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .
Projection Table
Projection Graphs Standard Leagues
QB
Standard Scoring League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, Jordan Love and Bo Nix are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Standard Scoring League Running Backs
From the graph below notice that:
- De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Woody Marks, Jaylen Warren and Kyle Monangai are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Jones and Kimani Vidal are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Bucky Irving, Travis Etienne, Chase Brown, RJ Harvey and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Rashee Rice, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Tee Higgins and D.J. Moore are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, Tetairoa McMillan, Wan’Dale Robinson and Deebo Samuel are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, George Pickens, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Tee Higgins and Christian Watson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Standard Scoring League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Trey McBride, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Juwan Johnson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Brock Bowers, Harold Fannin, Hunter Henry, Tyler Warren and Dalton Schultz are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews and Juwan Johnson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, Jordan Love and Bo Nix are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Jonathan Taylor, Omarion Hampton, Jaylen Warren, Woody Marks and Kyle Monangai are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard and Michael Carter are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Travis Etienne, RJ Harvey and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr. and D.J. Moore are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Stefon Diggs and Michael Pittman are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, Drake London, Tee Higgins and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Theo Johnson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, Harold Fannin, Tyler Warren and Hunter Henry are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Juwan Johnson, Mark Andrews and Brenton Strange are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, Jordan Love and Bo Nix are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Jonathan Taylor, Omarion Hampton, Jaylen Warren, Woody Marks and Kyle Monangai are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard and Michael Carter are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Travis Etienne, RJ Harvey and Woody Marks are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr. and D.J. Moore are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, Wan’Dale Robinson, Stefon Diggs and Michael Pittman are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, Drake London, Tee Higgins and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Theo Johnson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, Harold Fannin, Tyler Warren and Hunter Henry are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Juwan Johnson, Mark Andrews and Brenton Strange are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Kickers
K
Standard Scoring K
From the graph below notice that:
- Ka’imi Fairbairn, Jason Myers, Blake Grupe, Will Reichard and Daniel Carlson are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Zane Gonzalez, Mike Badgley, Charlie Smyth, Younghoe Koo and Andre Szmyt are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Brandon Aubrey, Jason Myers, Evan McPherson, Riley Patterson and Jake Moody are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
