Welcome to week 3!
Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.
The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: FantasySharks, NumberFire, CBS, FantasyPros, FleaFlicker, FFToday and ESPN. The data for this article was collected on 09/23/26. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .
Projection Table
Projection Graphs Standard Leagues
QB
Standard Scoring League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, C.J. Stroud and Bo Nix are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Justin Herbert are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Standard Scoring League Running Backs
From the graph below notice that:
- Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard and Bhayshul Tuten are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Tony Pollard, J.K. Dobbins and Blake Corum are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and David Montgomery are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, Matthew Golden and Rashod Bateman are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Nico Collins, Ladd McConkey, Emeka Egbuka, Terry McLaurin and Michael Wilson are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Watson, Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Standard Scoring League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- George Kittle, Brock Bowers, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Brock Bowers, Harold Fannin, Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, C.J. Stroud and Bo Nix are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Justin Herbert are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and D’Andre Swift are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Kyle Monangai and Woody Marks are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and Jadarian Price are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Jaylen Waddle, Matthew Golden and Deebo Samuel are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Drake London, Ladd McConkey, Emeka Egbuka, Michael Wilson and Stefon Diggs are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Isaiah Likely, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Half-Point-per-Reception Leagues
QB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterback
From the graph below notice that:
- Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, C.J. Stroud and Bo Nix are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Justin Herbert are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
RB
Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup
From the graph below notice that:
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and D’Andre Swift are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle and Blake Corum are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and David Montgomery are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
WR
Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver
From the graph below notice that:
- Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle and Matthew Golden are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Drake London, Ladd McConkey, Emeka Egbuka, Deebo Samuel and Michael Wilson are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Christian Watson, Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans and D.J. Moore are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
TE
Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight-End
From the graph below notice that:
- George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Isaiah Likely, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Projection Graphs Kickers
K
Standard Scoring K
From the graph below notice that:
- Ka’imi Fairbairn, Jason Myers, Harrison Butker, Daniel Carlson and Jason Sanders are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
- Brandon Aubrey, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Tyler Bass, Trey Smack and Wil Lutz are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Spencer Shrader, Chase McLaughlin, Daniel Carlson, Cam Little and Will Reichard are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
