Welcome to week 4!

Custom gold-mining charts (that are specific to your league settings) are now available in our app. They are calculated slightly differently -using the top and bottom deciles for the error bars instead of the pseudomedian confidence interval. Visit our app and set up an account to input your league settings.

The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: NumberFire, FantasySharks, CBS, ESPN, FantasyPros, FleaFlicker and FFToday. The data for this article was collected on 09/30/26. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining .

Projection Graphs

Scoring:
Position:

Standard Scoring League Quarterbacks

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Bryce Young and Sam Darnold are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Case Keenum are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 QB projections, Standard scoring

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Point-per-Reception League Quarterbacks

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Bryce Young and Sam Darnold are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Case Keenum are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 QB projections, PPR scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Half-Point-per-Reception League Quarterbacks

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Bryce Young and Sam Darnold are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Case Keenum are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 QB projections, Half scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Standard Scoring League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

  • Ashton Jeanty, Aaron Jones, Bucky Irving, Bhayshul Tuten and Braelon Allen are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, Quinshon Judkins and Tony Pollard are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Bhayshul Tuten, Braelon Allen and MarShawn Lloyd are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 RB projections, Standard scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Point-per-Reception League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

  • Ashton Jeanty, Bucky Irving, Bhayshul Tuten, Braelon Allen and MarShawn Lloyd are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, RJ Harvey and Woody Marks are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Braelon Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and MarShawn Lloyd are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 RB projections, PPR scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Half-Point-per-Reception League Running Backs

From the graph below notice that:

  • Ashton Jeanty, Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones, Bhayshul Tuten and Braelon Allen are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, Quinshon Judkins and Tony Pollard are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Braelon Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and MarShawn Lloyd are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 RB projections, Half scoring

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Standard Scoring League Wide Receivers

From the graph below notice that:

  • Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Parker Washington, Tetairoa McMillan and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Tetairoa McMillan, Malik Nabers and Matthew Golden are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Zay Flowers, Christian Watson, Puka Nacua, Parker Washington and Tee Higgins are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 WR projections, Standard scoring

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Point-per-Reception League Wide Receivers

From the graph below notice that:

  • Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Tetairoa McMillan and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle and Ladd McConkey are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Christian Watson, Tee Higgins and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 WR projections, PPR scoring

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Half-Point-per-Reception League Wide Receivers

From the graph below notice that:

  • Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Parker Washington, Tetairoa McMillan and Mike Evans are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Matthew Golden and Ladd McConkey are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Christian Watson, Parker Washington and Tee Higgins are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 WR projections, Half scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Standard Scoring League Tight Ends

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Kenyon Sadiq and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Harold Fannin, Hunter Henry, Kenyon Sadiq, Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Sam LaPorta and Juwan Johnson are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 TE projections, Standard scoring

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Point-per-Reception League Tight Ends

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Tucker Kraft, Hunter Henry and Kenyon Sadiq are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Juwan Johnson and Colston Loveland are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 TE projections, PPR scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Half-Point-per-Reception League Tight Ends

From the graph below notice that:

  • Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz and Kenyon Sadiq are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Juwan Johnson and Colston Loveland are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 TE projections, Half scoring

Click chart to enlarge

Standard Scoring League Kickers

From the graph below notice that:

  • Ka'imi Fairbairn, Brandon Aubrey, Will Reichard, Spencer Shrader and Chase McLaughlin are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections place much higher valuations than others. If you’re projected to lose and want a risky swing, these are players to consider.
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn, Brandon Aubrey, Jake Bates, Tyler Bass and Trey Smack are the players with the smallest downside, suggesting less uncertainty on the low end. If you’re likely to win and want to reduce downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Jason Myers, Evan McPherson, Cairo Santos, Chad Ryland and Chase McLaughlin are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you plan to start them, it’s worth checking why some projections are so low.
Week 4 K projections, Standard scoring

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Projection Table