Wide Receiver Gold Mining -Week 16
0The graph below summarizes the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: Fantasy Football Sharks, CBS’s Jamey Eisenberg, Fantasy Football Today, CBS’s Dave Richard, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Picking Pros and Fox Sports. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the tables and graphs, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.
Standard Scoring Leagues
From this graph be sure to notice:
- Martavis Bryant, Josh Gordon, Doug Baldwin, Harry Douglas and Mohamed Sanu are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods and James Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Odell Beckham, Charles Johnson, Jordan Matthews, Josh Gordon and Julio Jones are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
For those of you who prefer searchable tables instead of graphs, here is the same information presented in a table.
| player | tier | pseudo-median | lower bound | upper bound | risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 16.1 | 14.3 | 17.5 | 3.2 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 17.0 | 3.2 |
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 15.0 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 2.3 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 14.8 | 9.5 | 17.0 | 7.5 |
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 16.5 | 3.6 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 3.7 |
| Odell Beckham | 7 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 16.0 | 5.3 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 15.5 | 3.1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 15.5 | 3.6 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 3.9 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 3.0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 2.9 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 13.5 | 3.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 14.0 | 4.2 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 4.7 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 4.8 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 3.4 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 3.9 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 5.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 5.0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 12.2 | 4.7 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 5.6 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 3.5 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 3.6 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 4.4 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 4.2 |
| Malcom Floyd | 4 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 5.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 3.9 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 5.6 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 11.2 | 6.7 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 4.0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 11.2 | 5.8 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 10.5 | 5.9 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 |
| Julio Jones Q | 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 3.5 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 3.9 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 3.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton Q | 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins Q | 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 0.0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 1.9 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 2.1 |
| James Jones | 1 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 |
Note that higher tiers represent higher pseudo-medians and that, due to the way the clustering algorithm works, there will not always be players in all 7 groups.
PPR Leagues
From this graph be sure to notice:
- Charles Johnson, Harry Douglas, Doug Baldwin, Martavis Bryant and Mohamed Sanu are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
- Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Eddie Royal and Robert Woods are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
- On the other hand, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Charles Johnson, Brandon LaFell and Josh Gordon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.
And, below we have the PPR table.
| player | tier | pseudo-median | lower bound | upper bound | risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 23.5 | 20.8 | 25.5 | 4.7 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 23.1 | 20.4 | 26.0 | 5.6 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 23.4 | 5.0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 21.5 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 4.5 |
| Odell Beckham | 7 | 21.0 | 17.2 | 24.5 | 7.3 |
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 20.9 | 18.6 | 23.0 | 4.4 |
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 20.7 | 18.3 | 22.8 | 4.5 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 20.3 | 17.2 | 22.7 | 5.4 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 19.9 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 3.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 19.3 | 17.6 | 21.0 | 3.4 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 19.0 | 16.4 | 22.0 | 5.5 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 17.7 | 15.4 | 20.0 | 4.5 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 20.8 | 5.8 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 19.2 | 3.4 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 17.3 | 14.7 | 18.5 | 3.8 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 16.9 | 14.5 | 20.4 | 5.9 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 19.0 | 4.3 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 18.8 | 5.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 19.3 | 7.2 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 7.0 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 18.8 | 8.0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 18.1 | 6.0 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 17.6 | 6.3 |
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 5.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 16.6 | 5.8 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 17.8 | 5.4 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 16.0 | 4.1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 16.2 | 4.3 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 5.5 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 16.3 | 4.3 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 17.0 | 9.3 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 15.0 | 4.2 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 15.0 | 4.2 |
| Malcom Floyd | 4 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 15.4 | 5.7 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 15.0 | 6.0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 13.9 | 4.2 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 14.7 | 5.7 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 13.9 | 5.2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 15.5 | 7.5 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 19.0 | 9.8 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 4.6 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 3.5 |
| James Jones | 2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 3.8 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 2.8 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 12.9 | 5.9 |
| Julio Jones Q | 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 2.9 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 3.9 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 4.4 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 |
| T.Y. Hilton Q | 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 5.3 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 4.2 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 3.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins Q | 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 4.3 |
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