Custom Fantasy Football Rankings and Projections for Your League with this App254
This post describes a Shiny app that calculates custom fantasy football rankings and projections for your league. The app includes the most accurate fantasy football projections available. Based on your league settings, the app calculates projections using a “wisdom of the crowd” approach, combining more sources of projections than any other website. The projections are calculated by weighting projection sources according to their historical accuracy. You can even choose how much weight to give each source. Best of all, the app updates the projections automatically for your league with your inputs, and you can download the data for yourself. So let’s get to it. Here’s a more thorough description:
How it Works
First, we use a script to scrape player’s projected points from numerous sources using R. Second, based on the user’s league scoring settings, we calculate players’ projections using an average of the analysts’ projections (by default, the sources are weighted according to historical accuracy). You can choose which projection sources to include, modify the weights, and choose to calculate a mean, weighted average, or robust average. A robust average is less affected by outliers (crazy projections). Third, we calculate the value of each player over a typical replacement player at his position (VOR) to determine player rankings. In addition, we calculate players’ risk levels, as defined by the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players’ projected points and rankings across analysts. Note that risk is standardized to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2. We also display the “dropoff” in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position. If a player has a high dropoff, you should consider targeting him because that position drops in value very quickly. For more info on how projected cost is calculated, see here. Using the custom rankings for your league settings, we also calculate the difference between a player’s overall rank and his average draft position (ADP). Positive values mean the player’s rank for your league is lower than ADP (i.e., he is over-valued according to ADP and will likely be drafted by others in your league too early in the draft). Negative values mean the player’s rank for your league is higher than ADP (i.e., he is under-valued according to ADP and you should consider drafting him).
Note on risk: although bench players are important in the case of a starter’s injury or under-performance, it is generally best to draft starters with minimal risk to ensure solid, if not superior, performance. On the other hand, one should accept more risk with bench players because such a move has a low risk, high reward potential. For bench players, value over replacement may be less important than a player’s upside. We include players’ upside potential (ceiling) in the output, as defined by the players’ upper bound of their 95% confidence interval of their projected points.
Note on VOR: you may notice that the top Defenses and Kickers have a negative VOR value. Why? We added a penalty to the VOR values for DSTs and Kickers to make the rankings more realistic and to reflect the fact that DSTs and Kickers are the least predictable. The penalty was based on where the DST and K were placed before penalty. The Ks were about 17-20 points over where the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) would have placed them and DSTs were 5-7 points over, so the VOR penalty is -18 for Kickers is -6 for DSTs.
Season: which season of projections to use.
Positions: which positions of players to include in calculations.
VOR Baseline: the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for each position. We set the default baseline VOR value as the number of players drafted at each position within the top 100 picks, based on ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com. You can modify the VOR baseline values. For info on how to select a typical replacement for each position, see here.
Impute Replacement-Level Points for Missed Games: Select yes to add points of the “typical replacement player” for each game a player is expected to miss due to suspensions. For example, if Player X is projected for 180 points over 12 of a possible 16 games, and our calculation determines 10 points per game as replacement-level production, the points column will show 220 points (180 + 4*10). Select no to avoid imputing replacement-level points for missed games. Projected number of games missed comes from ProFootballFocus.com.
Calculation Type: The type of average to calculate: mean, weighted average, or robust average. By default, a weighted average is used with analysts weighted by their historical accuracy. You can modify the weights in the weighted average. The mean is equivalent to a weighted average where all analysts are equally weighted (weight = 1). The robust average gives less weight to outliers (crazy projections).
Analysts: Select which analysts to include and, if weighted average, the weights for each analyst (i.e., how much weight to give each source of projections when calculating projected points). For instance, if you want to exclude ESPN projections, you would give them a weight of 0. If you want to give Yahoo projections twice the weight of CBS, you would give Yahoo a weight of 2 and CBS a weight of 1. The default weights reflect historical accuracy (higher = more accurate). Note that FantasyPros shows a default weight of zero because we already include all of their sources in our projections, so it would be double counting to give them a weight above 0. You can certainly do so, though, if you’d like. FantasyFootballNerd also shows a default weight of zero because it uses the same projections as FantasyData.
Scoring Settings: specify the number of points for each statistical category and position.
Cohen’s d Values (for customizing tiers): Unlike other site’s tiers, our tiers are determined empirically and take into account the distribution of each player’s projected points (not just the average projection). We use Cohen’s d to determine whether two players are in the same or a different tier. Cohen’s d is the most common measure of “effect size“. Cohen’s d estimates the magnitude of difference between two players’ distributions of projected points. We set a default threshold of 1.0, corresponding to a large effect size, for determining whether two players are in different tiers (if two players have a Cohen’s d greater than 1, they will be considered to be in different tiers). Users can customize their tiers by changing the Cohen’s d thresholds in the app (under “General Settings”). If you want more players in the same tier (i.e., fewer tiers), make the threshold values larger. If you want fewer players in the same tier (i.e., more tiers), make the threshold values smaller.
Positions: specify which positions of players to display.
Only sleepers (max per position): specify how many sleepers at each position to display. Sleepers were selected as the players with the greatest uncertainty risk who had a ceiling > 80 and a low position rank (ranked lower than 80% of the VOR baseline for each position, except for Kickers and DST, for whom the player’s position rank is lower than 8). In other words, sleepers are players with a high degree of uncertainty, high ceiling, and low position rank.
Compare Players: specify specific players to compare.
Exclude Players: specify players to exclude.
Rank: Overall rank by VOR.
VOR: Value Over Typical Replacement Player. Used to rank players across positions. Calculated by comparing players’ projected points to a “typical” replacement player at the same position (determined by VOR baseline values). For more info on how VOR is calculated, see here.
Points: Average projected points for a player across analysts.
Ceiling: A player’s upside, calculated as the 90th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
Floor: A player’s downside, calculated as the 10th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
ECR Rank: Expert Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros.
Pos Rank: Position rank.
ADP: Average draft position.
ADP Diff: The difference between ranking and ADP (higher values reflect more under-valued players that are better to target).
AAV: Average auction value.
Dropoff: The “dropoff” in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position.
Risk: Risk of injury and degree of uncertainty of players’ projected points, calculated as the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players’ projected points and rankings across analysts. Standardized within position to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (higher values reflect greater risk).
Displays a density plot of projected points by analyst. A density plot shows, for each analyst, what proportion of players are projected to score a given number of points. Density plots can be helpful for comparing analysts and finding analysts with wildly different projections.
Examines the accuracy of historical projections by position. Displays a scatterplot of projected versus actual points. Table includes accuracy estimates by position:
- mean error (ME): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
- root-mean squared error (RMSE): lower is better
- mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better
- mean percentage error (MPE): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): lower is better
- mean absolute scaled error (MASE): lower is better
- R-squared (RSQ): higher is better
R-squared is measure of relative fit, whereas the others are measures of absolute fit.
The Projections App
For the Projections App, go to: http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/projections
Have You ever won your fantasy football league?
Hi Mark, I have won my fantasy league multiple times. I don’t win every year, but I’m consistently among the top teams. See here: http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2015/02/stats-help-fantasy-football.html.
Awesome site! I have been doing my own projections and VBD calculations for the last 3 years and this just sped up how quickly I can get it done! So, thank you!
For IDP are you taking in to account which players are more likely to be three-down players or players that are returners (offensive and defensive)? I play in an IDP/PPR league with returners. It gets pretty intense and if you can get a steal by scoring a WR or a DB late that will also be a primary returner, that can help a lot.
I can find plenty of information on who the returners will be, but trying to decide which ones to target based on previous years results and new year projections is where I’m pretty much guessing. Right now I just look at who has the best yards per return and try to target them if they also have some value based on my VBD rankings. If you have suggestions on how to incorporate that directly into the data versus filtering after VBD I would be all ears!
Sorry, meant to post that as a new comment.
We aggregate IDP projections from various sources, so our projections take into account whatever those analysts accounted for. We currently have projections for WR/RB/TEs’ return yards, but don’t yet have projections for IDP return yards. Let me know if you find any.
Just to comment something you may not expect….
My kid got interested in math after learning a bit of your program! That remind us that math and knowledge should be something rewarding
does this work for iphone when i click the tools nothing opens up
Hi Bobby, the site is not currently optimized for mobile viewing. Give it a try on a laptop.
Hey Isaac, very cool and impressive site! You have accomplished much of what I’ve been trying to accomplish from hours of excel spreadsheet editing in the past few years.
My question is in regards to the replacement player, so please confirm if I understand your methods correctly. The replacement values to be input are the expected number of players at each position drafted over the first 100 picks (and not the point value difference between the players?). I then assume you either use the projected stats scrubbed from other websites to actively determine the value of each player based on who has been drafted, or rely on the historical data of each position to do the same. And by actively determine, I mean that a RB value, for example, will show decreasing value as more and more RBs are drafted.
I think that’s all for now, thanks again for all your hard work!
I know your Excel pain–I used to do similar work with spreadsheets until I realized there was a much better/faster way. Hope you can learn it!
Good question! The replacement values to be input are the position ranks of the typical/baseline player to be used as the comparison for calculating a player’s value relative to the typical/baseline replacement player. Footballguys compared three different baselines (average starter, worst starter, and # of players drafted at a given point in a draft), and they determined that the number of players drafted at a given point in the draft was the best baseline (http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm). They suggested using the number of players drafted at each position within the first 100 picks (e.g., ~15 QBs, 36 RBs, 38 WRs, 8 TEs, 2 DEFs, 1 K). If you set the typical replacement for QBs to be 15, the app averages the projected points from the 14th to 16th (value plus or minus 1) ranked QBs and sets that as the baseline for the typical replacement QB (e.g., 150 points). Then it subtracts the baseline value (150 points) from each player’s projected points to get his value OVER replacement (i.e., VOR = player’s projected points – value of typical replacement player). Does that make sense? I added the option to specify the position rank of the typical replacement so you can specify a different baseline player for calculating VOR for your league, if you wish. Hope that helps. Let me know if there are things I can clarify.
Also, players’ projected points are a robust average across numerous sources (CBS, NFL.com, ESPN, FantasyPros, FantasySharks, FantasyFootballNerd, FFtoday, Yahoo). The average projections are used for determining the value of the typical replacement player for calculating VOR.
I just updated the app to calculate weighted averages of projected points based on user-defined weights for each of the sources of projections.
Do you have any plans of ever creating your own projections, or posting steps on how this is typically done?
I’d like to see the projection process start to finish instead of applying a blackbox of projections. I feel I’d learn a lot more if the projections were my own. I’m sure the Wisdom of the Crowds typically wins out, but it’d be fun to make my own weighted average projections for example.
Great question, and I totally agree with you that this would be awesome. I don’t have any immediate plans to generate independent projections, but it’s something I will definitely consider. A player’s projection would be some sort of weighted sum of position, prior performance, age, expected number of snaps and touches, injury likelihood, offense strength, strength of schedule, etc. Basically, it’s a lot of data, and the more data, the better the projections (most likely). The first (massive) step would be to collect all of these data from both the past and upcoming season. The next big step would be to crunch the numbers (multiple regression) to see how each of these variables predicts future performance (based on prior seasons) to derive a scoring algorithm that translates values on these variables into a projection. Then you would apply the projection to future performance. This is an iterative process, making sure to backtest your projections to see how accurate they and to improve them.
Hope that helps. If enough people are willing to help on this, I’d definitely be open to it.
Great site. I’ve been running similar analyses for a number of years but could never find someone else doing this as well.
I would be very interested to collaborate on developing custom rankings and/or expanding on your player risk analysis. I also used std deviation of draft/projection as a proxy for risk (ie. floor/ceiling). Unfortunately, I found that while there is clearly not causation, there isn’t correlation either when comparing results (post-season), to “risk” (pre-season).
So, I have updated the approach and amended it in a way that’s consistent with many of the messages in your various articles… results have been exciting and make me want to pursue in a more systematic way.
Shoot me an e-mail if you’re open to discussing.
Thanks for reaching out. I’m open to discussing, but not sure I can commit to anything at this point because I’m in my dissertation year. Feel free to hit me up if you’d like to discuss.
I’ve been thinking about creating my own projections from the bare bones and adding/removing some variables to look for certain outcomes (i.e uncovering sleepers better). What I’d really like is a starting set of variables. Is there any way to find out what variables sites like yahoo, cbs, etc run their regressions on to get projected receptions yds etc or is that information “classified” for each company? In other words, is there anyway to see their projections algorithm? I’d have to imagine most places have algorithms using many of the same variables. I think it would be a lot easier to see what the sites are “missing” if I can see what they are currently working with. Could be a pipe dream, but I’m really hoping you know where to find this information.
This is a great idea. Unfortunately, the proprietary sites that generate projections are black boxes—we don’t know what their algorithms include or don’t include. Here are some of my thoughts on creating your own projections from scratch:
Good luck, and let me know if you get a good starting point. I’m always looking to improve our projections, either by generating our own or including more projections in our averaging.
Hope that helps,
I figured that would be the case. Thanks for the links to the posts, they have been helpful in creating a starting set of variables that I think could work. The big step now, which you also mentioned earlier, is collecting raw player data from years past. We’re talking targets, catches, drops etc. Is there a place where this kind of data can be easily scraped? In other words, is there a huge database that already has historical player data, at least through the last 15-20 years. Because if not, this may be too big of a job for what I’m envisioning.
Thanks for the help,
Turns out that pro football reference has an amazing amount of data for each season of the nfl, including fantasy points scored.
Historical fantasy point projections would be great to have, wondering if you either have historical fantasy projections data or know a site that has projections for fantasy points from years past. I can only seem to find projections for the last couple of years and for comparisons I’m going to need it further back than that.
We have historical fantasy projections that go back to 2008 for some sites here (we only have for 1-3 years for most sites, though):
Just updated the app with sortable projections and you can now compare specific players Cheers!
Question: when you download all of this data as a CSV, you have columns for stats whether they be pass, rush, or receiving. Are those that players 2013 stats? Or are those again projections for this year? And if projections, where do those come from?
In any event, this is awesome. Been looking for something like this to help with draft.. particularly b/c we do an offline draft, which adds a layer of difficulty.
Also, will this data get refreshed throughout pre-season? Or is it in its final form now? Thanks again!
Those are projections for the upcoming year. They are a robust average across numerous sources (see here for a list: http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2014/06/scraping-fantasy-football-projections.html). You can choose how much weight to give each source, making it a weighted average. Yes, I will refresh it fairly regularly now that draft season is here.
Hope that helps!
Love this work! As many others have remarked, you’ve wrapped up in a bow much of the spreadsheet grunt tasks I go through every year.
One feature request: for easy use during a draft, would it be possible to put the players’ bye-week info next to the team name? I know it’s not hard to look up, but in the heat of the moment, and especially when comparing players in the later rounds, it can be very helpful to have that piece of info readily available.
Hey David, thanks for the kind words. I’m open to adding a bye week column. I don’t want to add too many columns because the app is a little visually complex as it is. Bye weeks are lower on my priority list because it’s my opinion that you should draft the best possible team regardless of bye weeks because you don’t know how the bye weeks will help or hurt your chances. For instance, it might actually be beneficial for all of your starters to have the same bye week. Yes, you might lose that particular week, but you’ll be more likely to win all of the other games. That said, I might be swayed if there’s enough demand for one. Thanks for the suggestion, and feel free to keep asking about one if it’s important enough to you!
I would vote to have the bye week included. IMO, the more information the better. I agree with your ‘for instance,’ but I also think there are many other instances where it would be useful (for instance, when drafting a backup TE). If nothing else, it would keep you consistant with other sites.
Thanks, we have plans to include it (along with many other variables)!
Upgrading our server to handle more traffic. Apps will be down for a bit. Will get the up as soon as possible.
Apps are back up now!
I love this site! Wow. Amazing. One question I have… I noticed that return yards aren’t figured into this at all. Would you be able to add that into projections? For instance Yahoo is projecting for Cordarrelle to gain 800+ return yards. In my leagues, that would 26-32 points on his projection and move him up 8 or 9 spots among WRs and as much 20 spots overall (which obviously changes draft rankings…)
Great suggestion, I can look into including return yards. I’m traveling this week, so I won’t be able to get to it for a bit, though. It would be helpful to know which sources include projections for return yards to know which sites to include. Which sites do?
I know Yahoo does. I’ll take a look around and see who else does.
Where can I find publicly available projections for return yards on Yahoo? I can only see projections for return TDs:
Hmmm. Can’t find it publicly. That’s annoying…
Just added return TDs to the apps. Let me know if you find return yards.
This is an incredibly powerful tool. Thank you for making it available to the public!! I am confused about one thing, however. That is, the definition of “Projected Cost” that is attached to each player. Maybe you can help unpack it a bit.
First, it’s unclear to me whether projected cost is more akin to:
1) “What I can expect to pay,” i.e., it is the amount I can expect to pay for that player
2) “What I ought to pay,” i.e., it is the ideal amount to pursue for that player; or
3) “What I must pay to get my guy,” i.e., it takes the realistic amount I can expect to pay but incorporates the ideal amount I ought to pay based on the projections in order to see how much I should realistically pay above or below what I can expect to pay (thus, a combination of 1 and 2)
If it is some form of #3, you should consider listing the average auction values next to the projected cost in the spreadsheet so folks can compare those side by side.
Second, so you know, this question arose when I was combing through the Projected Cost values for WRs and I saw this discrepancy in cost:
Andrew Hawkins | WR60 | Projected points 115.75 | Projected Cost 2
Marvin Jones | WR61 | Projected points 115.20 | Projected Cost 5
Can you briefly explain whether that discrepancy likely has more to do with their average auction value or the statistics used in your app?
Great question, and it has been a source of confusion for many, so I’ll be looking into how to clarify the tools to make it clearer. It can’t fully be the “ideal amount” because the ideal cost would be $1 for every player (although that’s obviously implausible). As a result, it is a combination of expected cost plus an adjustment that would allow you to get the players necessary to maximize your projected points. In other words, I think of it as #3 (a combination of what you can expect to pay and what you should be willing to pay). The confusion arises because, as you point out, it’s not the same as their expected cost (#1) or the ideal cost (#2). I’ve attempted to calculate ideal cost with the Bid-Up-To value (http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2013/08/calculating-bid-up-to-values.html), but haven’t yet figured out how to incorporate it into the app because it is a loop that takes several minutes to run and is too slow for users’ needs. I’m working on it. In the meantime, I think it’s sufficient to say that the projected cost is the cost you can expect and should be willing to pay for a player if they are selected by the optimizer. The reason why the costs don’t always map onto the projected points is because they are derived from the AAV of the site you selected and not the projected points. That’s because your draft costs will be in large part driven by your site’s AAV. I’ll also consider your suggestion to add expected cost (#1) to the app, but I’m not sure I can get to it this week (and I also don’t want there to be too many columns).
Thanks again for the ideas, and I sincerely hope that clarifies!
Very helpful. Thanks.
Just updated the data and added return TDs to the draft apps. Go win your draft!
Great tool!! Other high quality sites charge $15+ for only some of the tools you have provided. I have no requests but wanted to say I have made some attempts via multiple regression to develop a formula to increase prediction (using mostly past performance and other factors such as coaching changes or players’ team changes) . Nothing spectacular thus far. Good luck with your dissertation and defense!
Good luck generating your projections. I hope you’ll consider sharing them with the FFA community on our GitHub site (create a pull request: https://github.com/isaactpetersen/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR). Making them available to the community can allow others to build on and improve them. This benefits everyone. Thanks!
can you add 4for4 john paulsen ranks ? i have them if you need them would like them added to the projections so i can make an excel spreadsheet for tomorrows draft.
Traveling this weekend, but can look into this in the future. Unfortunately, it’d have to be a publicly available site in order to scrape and update automatically.
Would you be able to update the projections today, Sunday (have a draft at 2:00pm PST and on Tuesday)?
I know you’re traveling so I understand if you can’t but thought I’d try.
I can try to update when I get back but not sure it will be before your draft. They were updated recently though so you should be in good shape.
Shiny app appears to be down.
What problem are you having? They’re working for me.
I just discovered your site after doing some preliminary background research on what is out there today for Fantasy Football stat techniques. I love your Shiny app! I have a few questions:
1) Do you have the source code to this Shiny App available? I’d love to play with it to learn better.
2) With minor source code changes, would this app work for weekly projections (or next N weeks)?
3) Does the app work off current projections? Or projections as of the start of season?
Thanks for your interest.
1) The Shiny code isn’t public, but all the functions it uses (calculating risk, projections, etc.) are public on our GitHub repo (https://github.com/isaactpetersen/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR).
2) Weekly projections isn’t a “simple” change but it’s on our to-do list for next season.
3) The apps were last updated the day before the season started. They are season projections (from the start of the season). To do remaining season projections, we’d need multiple sources that make projections for the remainder of the season. Do you know of any sources that do?
Awesome app, thanks for putting this all together. One request I would have is for a way to exclude players without having to type in their name into the sidebar. Maybe an exclude button by each player’s name? Would make live drafting with the app muuuuuch easier. Thanks for the help!
You can exclude players in the app by clicking their name (you may have to clear your browser cache first).
Haha woops didn’t realize that. Awesome!
Thanks for the great work. I wanted to get your opinion on how specifically to use VOR values in certain spots. This is a general question, so I think it makes sense to assume that the generated VOR values are the closest to perfect information available.
So in the early rounds (1-4), does it make sense to draft based strictly on VOR values? In the custom rankings for my league, Andrew Luck is ranked #12. Should I happily take him at 12 over any player with a lower VOR value? It kind of feels like it can be correct to give up some VOR value early, in order to end up with a greater cumulative VOR value at the end by virtue of addressing position scarcity. I know position scarcity is considered in the VOR values, but if ADP is differing significantly from my VOR values (obviously a good thing right?) could this make it correct to draft say a WR or RB at 12 who had a slightly lower VOR than Luck?
If this question is unclear, I’ll try again another time. I also have an example involving Travis Kelce that is similar.
Thanks again Isaac. This site is spectacular.
VOR is a good guide for comparing players across positions. Early in the draft, when you’re drafting starters, I’d focus on VOR and floor, also considering ADP Difference, Dropoff, and Risk. You want your starters to have a high floor with low risk. A high ADP difference suggests that a player is under-valued and might be available later in the draft (so you might not need to select him with the current pick, but might want to target him with a later pick). A high dropoff suggests that it might be worth targeting the player because there is a big dropoff to the next available players at that position (i.e., positional scarcity). When you’re drafting bench players, I’d focus on ceiling.
In your example, you might consider drafting a player (e.g., RB/WR) with a lower VOR if a) they have a bigger dropoff (i.e., positional scarcity), or b) the other player (e.g., Andrew Luck) is highly under-valued and may be available later. The goal is to have the highest cumulative VOR among the starters.
Hope that helps!
My league uses the 2 QB format. How would you recommend editing your data to account for this?
Which data are you referring to? Projected points won’t differ based on how many QBs you have on your team. If anything, you could modify the VOR baselines for QBs to be a higher number because you have twice the number of QB starters. This would make VOR values (and resulting rankings) higher for QBs.
Hope that helps,
Your website / blog is great. I think you have been asked this before , but going to ask again. Will you start congregating weekly projections for the NFL? Because I would love to use your compilation of projections for Fan Duel. My initial research keeps going back to what you have done and I would use your research over Pro Football Focus or Fantasy Football Pros.
Thanks – Vik.
Yes, we are currently working on weekly projections. Stay tuned!
I am trying to use the app but have been running into the following error after inputting the scoring specifications for my league:
“object ‘vorRank’ not found
eval(expr, envir, enclos)”
Is there something I need to be doing differently? Thanks.
Thanks EM, just fixed it. Let us know if you still run into problems.
Can you fix it again for Week 2? Thanks!
I’m not getting any errors. Let me know exactly what changes you make to get an error so we can reproduce.
This website is awesome! I love the layout of the web tool and how you post all of the code in R as well. Is there anyway you could include bye weeks as a data field in the web app? Or maybe a highlight/star field for draft day?
Bye weeks are on our to-do list. What do you mean by a highlight/star field?
Your website is great stuff. I had an issue with setting the ADP to ESPN on the projection app. Every time I select ESPN for the ADP, it blanks out the ADP column for all players. I’m trying to find out which players are undervalued in the ESPN projection system and this is giving me a hard time. Am I doing something wrong or is this a bug?
Good catch, just fixed it.
This is AMAZING! Thank you so much for doing this.
I have one question and a request. First, how often do you scrape the projections from all the sites you scrape from? I’m sure they don’t change much during the preseason, but I suspect at least some of them change their projections during training camp/preseason games. I also hope they change them some when a player gets injured.
Second, would it be possible to add somewhere in the projections app the last time the data was scraped so we know how current your aggregate projections are? Maybe this is already listed somewhere, but I can’t find it.
We update the data regularly. We have a “Date Updated” on our to-do list.
How do we know which experts rankings have been updated? I am just trying to understand how to look at this as compared to FantasyPros where they sort experts by last rankings date and experts who do/do not include PPR. I assume your tool automatically does this? Do you have an article that talks about configuring the data sources?
Thanks for the great tool – still trying to get my head wrapped around it!
We update the data regularly, and a “Date Updated” infobox is on our to-do list. We’re currently working on the Auction tool. What do you mean about an article that discusses “configuring the data sources”? The article above discusses how to set weights if that’s what you mean.
Hope that helps,
Hey! Awesome site.
Quick question. Is there a way to input the amount of teams and cap value of your league to adjust the average auction value. I’m in a 16 team league with a cap or 200 bucks per team. Because there is so much more money in the pool, top tier players end up going for considerably more.
I mean in the projection App!!
We are working on our Auction tool right now and hope to release it soon. It will adjust AAV by league cap and number of teams.
I cannot get the projections to download using a iMac. I get another window with a bunch of garble.
You might try the suggestions outlined by me and others here:
Hope that helps,
This is awesome! I built a similar engine in Python but I always had a problem getting the data. How frequently do you update your data set?
We update the data regularly, and will continue to update them through the draft season. A “Date Updated” infobox is on our to-do list after we finish the Auction tool.
1. Would it be possible to show a column for dropoff by average round? So for example, for a WR with ADP of n, it would show perhaps the average of the first two WRs that have an ADP after n+12. Not a perfect system however because the length between picks changes for most drafters but would give a better idea of what would be available if you waited a round.
2. Could risk be separated into injury and uncertainty as well? Would be nice to know if a guy has high risk because he’s just injury prone vs having uncertainty. Also i’ve noticed the risk values keep trending upwards for a lot of early round players, is there a reason why?
1) Yes, we can consider this. We are thinking about ways to give probabilities for whether each player will be available at a user’s next pick.
2) We have plans to have a separate column for uncertainty risk, but unfortunately we can’t show injury risk because it’s from a proprietary site (Sports Injury Predictor). We recently updated the risk calculation, so it should be better now.
Fantastic work here. Really awesome.
This is probably a silly question but do projections take into account suspensions or injury? For example, if a player is expected to miss 4 games.
Also, any chance you have a rookie column or have done any research on rookies? Should they be avoided as maybe they are too risky?
Both are on our to-do list. Rookies are likely risker, and I’d expect their risk values (especially their uncertainty risk) to be somewhat higher, as well.
So I was reading up on another page about creating your own program to optimize your drafting while taking into account which players had already be drafted. Unfortunately, I’m not tech savvy enough to get all the programs I needed to download working properly. Are there any plans to incorporate that feature into your app?
The Auction tool will account for who’s been drafted. You can select which players have been drafted in the Snake draft tool to show who’s still available to draft. We have plans next season to implement a Dynamic VOR based on who you’ve drafted and your positional needs.
why don’t you allow totally customization scoring for your analysis? You can only change DST points allowed.
It is fully customizable. You can type in new values in each textbox.
Hope that helps,
It wasn’t letting me change QB or RB or WR scoring is there something i need to do? different browser etc?
You can try other browsers but it should work on most/all browsers. What browser are you using? See this conversation:
Hope that helps,
nevermind i was having a mental lapse.
Pretty amazing stuff here. I was just wondering what you would suggest for draft strategy is once you have the projections and data. I.E. do you draft differently early in the draft? Do you look at VOR early and floor later? Just some suggested strategies would be great. Sometimes when you get so much good info it’s tough to use it properly and efficiently.
I am using this for an auction draft so any suggestions tailored to that would be great.
Thank you and great work.
For strategy in Auction Drafts, see here:
Hope that helps,
Hey Isaac, this work is amazing and I just had a quick question about more exactly how to use the projection tool.
Do you tend to have a minimum or maximum risk for bench/starters? I know in lots of different places you talk about picking “low risk” starters and “high risk” bench players, but am unsure where exactly to draw this line.
If you could provide any info on this I would appreciate it.
Just a small addition to that question: Do you have a general rule of thumb for how much more risk you willing to accept for more points? Say if a players VOR and Floor are 10 points higher but the risk is 1 higher, which would you select?
See my comment here on how to consider risk:
The bottom line is that it’s a balance. You want to get the most points for the least risk in your starting lineup. How much should you weight each? We’re not sure, so it comes down to how much you value each.
Hope that helps,
Okay perfect, thanks Isaac. I appreciate you responding to all of these comments.
Wouldn’t league rosters affect the auction values in the custom projections app? If its a two qb league or you must start 3 wr, obviously QBs and WRs value would increase at the expense of RB
League rosters could affect auction values. Custom auction values are on our to-do list.
Isaac, Thanks for the quick response. Did not realize that the auction values were not “customized.” I’ve used another sheet from reddit and the top RB value went from $55 to $39 based on a “super flex” position (qb, rb, wr, te) and 3 wr. Interested if your values would reflect the same decline.
What formula is this change based on? We might be able to modify cost based on roster settings if you know to do so. We already modify AAV based on number of teams in the league.
Is there a way to save my league’s custom scoring settings for the projections app? As I prepare for my draft, I often need to update the projections several times, and it’s a pain to have to re-enter the custom scoring for my league every single time. It would be great to be able to store my settings somehow.
Saving settings is on our to-do list.
Did you include a way to save settings? What do you get with a paid subscription vs. the free subscription?
This article describes the additional features in the paid subscription: http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2016/08/introducing-ffa-insider.html.
Also, would it be possible to add each player’s BYE week number in the output for the projections app? This comes in handy in later rounds when trying to avoid having a large part of your roster on BYE the same week.
Bye weeks are on our to-do list.
Hi when have these player rankings been updated last? Just want to make sure everything is current before my draft tomorrow night. Thanks.
We’ve updated everything. Best of luck in your draft!
Love the snake draft projections app. I am having trouble downloading new projections. The projections update when I input my league settings but when I press the download button it does nothing. Can you help?
It works for me. You might try a different browser, pausing your adblocker, or allowing popups.
Let me know if you figure it out!
Hi there. Thank you so much for this!! A truly genius and awesome site and I know your traffic will only continue to increase with such helpful tools. I was wanting to ask how I can put in my own custom scoring rules of my league for projections. I play in 3 pretty expensive leagues and interestingly enough they all give 6 points for passing TD’s instead of 4 meaning I expect the QB values to move them up quite a bit higher than other leagues. Thanks for your help and fine work sir!!
All the scoring settings are customizable. Just click “Change Data Settings” and modify the values in the textboxes. You can change TDs to be worth 6 points.
Hope that helps,
Yes, I figured it out right after you said it as the side bar won’t work to scroll down you just need to click in the middle of the page and arrow down 😉
One more thing…I assume the aav is for a standard $200 dollar auction league correct?? I couldn’t find a way to change that which is fine because that’s what my league is but more just wanted a confirmation. Thank you again. This site is fantastic and I will donate!!
You can access AAV and costs that are customized to your league with our Auction Draft Optimizer. Just modify your league cap and it will adjust:
Thanks for your support!
I have a question about the VOR Baseline setting. You say in your description that you “set the default baseline VOR value as the number of players drafted at each position within the top 100 picks, based on ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com.” But when I go the ‘Data Settings’ section and see the default values in that area for each position, it adds up to 106. Is that just an oversight, or is there something that I’m not understanding correctly about this setting?
I am using the tool to just value the major offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE). So should I reset the data between those positions so that it equals 100? I read the article, but I’m still a little fuzzy on this setting.
Thanks for posting this web tool! I used to use a draft sheet calculator from another site (with moderate success) that got gobbled up by USA Today and now they don’t offer it anymore. Glad I managed to find your website. Thanks.
We made some slight adjustments to the default VOR baseline values so the rankings were reasonable. Feel free to play around with other VOR baseline values. In your case, I would suggest going to MyFantasyLeague to figure out how many QB/RB/WR/TEs are drafted in the top 100 using your league settings.
Hope that helps!
After downloading the output, I have an additional question. A few columns come up with null values for all the rows of data. Column B, Player; Column J, Actual Points; Column N, Cost. Is this an error? Maybe just future use columns that you haven’t gotten around to populating the output? Something else? Thanks.
Not an error, we just don’t display everything that we calculate. And some things are only calculated under certain conditions. We can work to tidy up the downloaded files, but we have some other important to-do list items first.
I really like the website, is there a way to get a printable set of rankings based on the projections app that you have? Would make it easier to use during the draft. As of now I’d have to hit print screen, scroll down, print screen again etc.
Yes, click the “Download” button at the top of the Projections tool to have a printable cheatsheet of rankings customized to your league settings.
Hope that helps,
Can somebody please explain to me what the “Threshold/Points” & “Points Allowed” are referring to in the DST settings? My league has customizable points for both points allowed & yards allowed yet I’m not sure how to enter that here.
Those are for setting continuous (e.g., -0.5 points per point allowed) and threshold multipliers for DST points allowed (not yards allowed).
Hope that helps,
So just to be clear, there are no settings for yards allowed?
Given that, if I use values for the “threshold/points”, I should use 0 for “points allowed”?
It depends how your league scoring is set up. If your league gives 10 points for a shutout, 0 points for <= 20 points allowed, and -10 points for > 20 points, use the threshold/points. If your league gives -.2 points per point allowed, use the “points allowed”. If your league gives 10 points for shutouts, and -.2 points per point allowed, use both.
Hope that helps,
I love the data. I do not feel like that return yards were incorporated in the projections. I know it allowed me to input them but the numbers seemed too low based on my leagues scoring system, Maybe I did something wrong… Great info though!
The projections definitely account for return yards. You can see this by increasing the multiplier, and it greatly affects projected points.
Historically, I’m terrible at Fantasy Football. I’m putting my full faith into your app this draft. Hopefully it serves me well.
Any personal advice, in general or for settings/use on the app?
Which Calculation type do you use when you draft?
Also wanted to ask, how often do you update the information during preseason? I wasn’t sure if it is mentioned somewhere that I didn’t see.
We update the data very regularly. For info on which calculation type is the most accurate, see here:
For strategy in your Snake Draft, see here:
Hope that helps,
Love this! I just discovered it and was hoping to use it for my draft tonight. What happened to the app though? It’s blank. Thanks and keep up the good work!
Works for me, try clearing your cache.
I got it to work in Chrome (was using Safari before). Never cleared my cache, but now it works in Safari too. So all good. Thanks, Isaac.
App seems to be down right now.
Works for me, try clearing your cache.
Hey Isaac, could you possibly add DraftKings scoring to your selection list? Or if one of the other options is similar, that would be great.
Yes, on our to-do list. Thanks!
Love your work, but on all my browsers the Weekly Lineup Optimizer does not work. Basically, I go to the site. Then I will select DraftKings as my scoring system. A new lineup for Highest Points, Highest Floor, and Highest Ceiling will appear. That works great. Once I choose a player to exclude though, all 3 lineups will show a graphic that a new lineup is being generated. The process never completes for any of them though.
Thanks, looking into it.
Hey Isaac, great app! When will the week 2 projections go into the system?
Hello Isaac, when do you usually update weekly projections?
How can I use this tool to generate over 100 lineups at a time for my draftking daily fantasy rosters? My goal is to generate multiple lineups based on my data settings that I decide. Then import the .csv file of those lineups to my draftking account.
Thank you in advance for any help you could provide
You could do a simulation (http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2013/08/optimization-simulation.html) or exclude players using our lineup optimizer (http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/lineupoptimizer) to arrive at different lineups.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in your “updated” projections when you have Luck as the #1 QB and Brady at #13. J. Charles is still listed in the rankings too. Is it fair to say that the season projections aren’t being updated and it shouldn’t be used anymore?
We don’t update the season projections after the beginning of the season—only the weekly projections.
Good Job on making this app. I downloaded R and Have been playing with it for a couple weeks. Still haven’t really picked it up as well as I picked up VBA. You could make a lot of money off of this.
Could you make the projections app give you the ability to save your scoring system so that I don’t have to manually enter it in every week? Please? Thanks!
On our to-do list, thanks!
Great APP can you tell me what happened to the optimizer it hasn’t worked in a few weeks?
Up and running!
Hi Isaac, I am trying to open the projections App, but nothing is loading. When I click to change data settings, there is nothing to change, all the drop down boxes are blank. Is this a problem with my browser or something going on on my end? Love the site, thanks again for all the work.
Hmm, it works for me on both Chrome and IE. You might try disabling ad blockers, clearing your cache, etc. If still not working, let us know your set up.
Hi Issac, I loved using this application last year, and I will certainly be using it again. I was wondering if you had any plans to split the DB position into cornerbacks (CB) and safeties (S). I’ve had success with splitting the DBs up by cross-referencing with an alphabetically sorted player list, but it makes updating draft kits a little tedious. I know IDP leagues aren’t as common as standard, so I can understand why this may be a low priority task.
Thanks again for this amazing application.
This is on our to-do list. Thanks Nathan!
That’s fantastic! Thanks for the quick response. Keep up the great work!
I’ve been taking a look at your site, specifically the projections. I’m working on an app that would use Rest of Season projections. So lets say its week 4. I’m looking for projections for what each players stats will be for the remainder of the season, so stats for week 4 through week 16. Do you maintain anything like that?
We’d be interested in aggregating rest of season projections. The challenge is we aren’t aware of many sources that provide them for us to aggregate. I’m aware that numberFire does but am not aware of any others. Do you know of other sites that do?
I know that numberfire and pro football focus have them, but they both require a $7500 license to use their data legally.
Thanks, let us know if you come across others!
I noticed a minor issue: when switching to using ESPN ADP, the ADP does not show up for all WAS and JAC players. Otherwise, the projections app is outstanding!
Should be fixed now, thanks!
Love the projections app! I’ve done some limited work in R (mostly for text-based analysis) and have also been enjoying the customization of that package. I, too, am a PhD candidate, and I have no idea how you found the time for a side project like this–very impressive!
I’ve read through many of the comments sections now on a number of articles, and I’ve seen you mention (last year, mostly) that you were developing a “Dynamic” VOR ranking that re-calculated during the draft for optimal VBD strats. Curious if that’s an additional part of the R package, or if you have hopes to include that in the online projections app sometime before this 2016 season. (Or, perhaps you’ve even already updated the app to take that into account!)
Sounds like you may be ABD, or even job market bound now; best of luck to you in either case!
We are still interested in a Dynamic VOR. Still thinking about how best to implement, let us know if you have suggestions.
Thanks and good luck in your PhD program! I accepted a faculty position 🙂 ,
I’m drafting tomorrow in one of my leagues–any chance the rankings will be updated before noon or so?
Congrats on the new professorship, by the way, and best of luck!
Hello Isaac, I enjoy your site and find a lot of benefit from using it in preparing my draft strategy.
I noticed a couple weeks ago that your projections app had the ability to sort data for a two quarterback league however now I am unable to find that option anymore.
Do you anticipate bringing it back? Thanks again.
Hope that clarifies,
Getting an error message and cannot run the projections app.
Works for me. We’d need more info to reproduce.
Working fine now. Is the auction draft AAV issue fixed?
On our to-do list, thanks!
I’m really interested in using your projection app, but when I’m trying to customize it for a better fit to my league I’m really confused when it comes to VOR baseline and calculation type settings. I’m playing in a 16-team league with the following starting lineup. Could you please explain to me how I should use those settings for the best fit for my league?
Thank for a great article
Hope that helps!
For VOR baseline, the app defaults to the number of players at each position picked after 100 players were taken.
Assuming your league scoring isn’t changed from last year, go over last year’s draft and count out each position through pick 100. That will let the app rank the players based on how YOUR league tends to prioritize by position.
Can you expand on your choice to use 1-MASE for the weights? I use a similar approach in my model, but determine weights by using optimization – finding weights for each data source that lead to the smallest difference between historical actuals and that years projections.
Either way, I love the site, thanks for putting this all together.
We base the default weights based on historical accuracy (i.e., 1-MASE). You can certainly use optimization to find the “optimal” weights based on prior years’ data. I suspect that the optimal weights would be over-fitting the data, and would not generalize well to future years, but that’s a testable question. It would be interesting to see how well the optimized weights perform this season against our different metrics (mean, robust, weighted average). Feel free to share your code with the community, so we can examine that!
Something odd going on with the projection app. When I select “Impute Replacement-Level Points for Missed Games?” replacement level seems to go haywire (not sure what it’s using) but the rankings get extremely screwy.
Not a big deal, I generally work out my own tweaks on how to value players with games off, but I thought you’d like to know. This only started happening in the past day or so. Before that, that setting didn’t behave so oddly.
Should be working now, thanks!
I noticed in the projection app that IDP players are being accounted for twice if they are eligible at more than one position. It seems to negatively affect their projections too. (EX: Mark Barron)
Players at all positions are, by design, given a separate row for every position they are projected at. That’s because their VOR may differ depending on their position. Not sure how it would “negatively affect” their projections.
Gotcha. I guess it just seemed weird that Barron was nowhere near the top 10 safeties. Could have been something I messed up on my end though.
Thanks again. App has been invaluable.
Great site, thanks for making it public! I’m having an issue with the lineup optimizer, and was wondering if you could help. I’m trying to make sure I’m on the same basis as ESPN in terms of auction values for my league with the following parameters:
– PPR / Auction / $200
– 12 teams
– 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1 QB, 1 K, 1 D
– 16 total players, 9 starters
The default AAV’s provided in ESPN’s mock drafts start at ~$68 for Antonio Brown (for those above parameters). Also, the cheat sheets ESPN puts out and the average auction records they have on their site for those parameters all have Antonio Brown above $60. However, in the lineup optimizer, I can’t seem to get the AAV for Antonio Brown above $55 even when I set all the options that include ESPN to ESPN (e.g. AAV’s, scoring, 100% on the analyst weightings, etc.). I’ve double checked that all the parameters I’ve listed above are correct as well.
I guess the most important thing I’m trying to figure out is what the true, uubiased price is for Antonio Brown based strictly on VOR using the above parameters. If I can get that it will be easy for me to then just ratio his price down for all the other players using VOR to come up with my own prices (and make sure I’m not over-paying for a player). I’ll also use the floors, ceilings, and risk levels as secondary checks when bidding.
Any help would be great, thanks!
You might try to delete your cache, disable your adblockers, and/or try a different browser, because Brown’s AAV for ESPN in our database (and in the Lineup Optimizer) is 62.10, which is consistent with ESPN’s AAV values:
Also, don’t forget to change your AAV source to ESPN in the “Change Data Settings”.
I saw in an earlier comment that you planned to implement the feature that allows you to add players to your team in the snake draft app. I don’t know much about fantasy football, but isn’t the snake draft’s usefulness greatly reduced without this feature? Would I be able to use the auction draft optimizer in a snake draft for the same effect? Thanks.
To clarify, I just wanted to use the picking players feature to calculate the best player based on my team’s needs, taking into account what positions are already filled. I don’t really see the point of excluding players in the snake draft without it.
The “Excluding Players” is for excluding players that have already been drafted (or that you don’t want to draft). We’d like to build this feature at some point. Many people still find the app useful because it’s not that difficult to keep track of positional needs, especially when following the principle of drafting starters first. For more info, see here:
Hi All –
I’m having trouble changing the scoring per position setting. For example, I need to change Pass TD to 6 from 4. The boxes all appeared to be grayed out.
Works for me. Try deleting your cache, removing your adblockers, and/or trying a different browser.
Thanks! It worked!
I was wondering if there’s a way to use the Lineup Optimizer offline? I tried reading through the R scripts but wasn’t sure if that was the way to do it.
Not currently, but we’ll hope to create a downloadable version in the future!
Hi Isaac. Great app, Unfortunately the data changes are working for me? I make all the changes, budget, amount of starters, points changes…all of it, but when I hit load it doesn’t grab the information?
Does this actually work for anyone?
Just barfs a bunch of SQL for me
I’m getting three “invalid” errors when trying to load new settings on the projections app. Doesn’t allow me to move forward. I can enter the custom settings, but then get the error when clicking “load”.
Unable to run the projections app – getting an error when trying to load my custom settings.
App should be working now. We’d need more info to reproduce. For more info, see here: http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors
I am getting the same
Apps should be up now. For more info on why they were down, see here:
Do season projections pulled mid-season take into account actuals (scores from weeks already played)?
We calculate average projections from multiple sources to get the “Wisdom of the Crowd” (see above article). In other words, our projections take into account prior performance to the extent that our sources take into account prior performance. How much is that? It’s hard to know because the proprietary sources of projections are black boxes, and they don’t reveal how they’re generating them.
Hope that clarifies,
First off, thank you for the app – it’s wonderfully powerful – and I completely understand that you run into server issues. Thank god people don’t share it on facebook out of the competitive spirit.Although, have you ever thought of implementing a “manual calculate” toggle for the lineup optimizer? I know many use it for their daily football league and may need instant computations, but I’m sure there are many like me that just enter the players already in their respective league, which just lags the app every time the script is re-run given the new player. I think it would be a great feature for both you and the users. Thanks again.
Thanks for the suggestion, Jack. It sounds like the Projections Tool might better fit your needs?
Hi Isaac, just curious, how do I use the Accuracy tab on the Projects app? I just see an error ‘Unable to build accuracy plot with given data’. I’m a bit new to the site and haven’t quite figured out how to navigate. Thanks.
Hi Bruce, try using the Projections app (http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/), and selecting prior seasons’ data. If that doesn’t work, please let us know what specific changes you make so we can reproduce (http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors).
Is there any plan in the future to allow us to use the accuracy tab in the Projections app for the current season. Would like the ability to know how the analysts are doing so far vs. how they did last year when team dynamics were completely different.
Just a thought 🙂
We appreciate the input, we’ll put it on our to-do list!
Sorry I’m new to this website, but am interested in giving this a try for the remainder of this season and if all goes well, I will definitely consider using next year. My question is this: Is there a way to save my league scoring values so I don’t have to keep inputting them?
We don’t currently have a way to save scoring values but it is certainly something we will look to add in the near future.
Just discovered this site today thanks to Reddit. Couple questions:
– When trying to gather projections using the ’16 season its not reporting the actual points. Is that due to the data still being gathered for this season?
– Also when trying to check accuracy I’m getting ‘Unable to build accuracy plot with given data’
I used my league’s custom scoring. Is that feature a limitation of custom scoring or am I missing some basic understanding of the app?
I need a way to compile stats for 100 leagues can you help?
I love this site! It’s a great resource for football and data analytics. I want to start doing some fantasy football analysis of my own and want to download all the historical projections from your app. Is there a way to automate the download of your projections from your app using R or some other tool? I’m new to R but want to learn how to use it so forgive me if I’m asking a dumb question.
Again, love the site and thanks for all the hard work that you put into it!
There’s no current way to automate the download of historical projections from the app, but you can automate the downloading of current projections using the ffanalytics R package.
Cool. Good to know. Thanks for your help, Isaac.
I am hoping you can clarify the scoring on a 40 yard touchdown on your website. Is the input I am adding how many extra points someone gets for a 40 yard touchdown, or the total points they receive? For example, in my league a 40 yard touchdown is worth 9 points. Therefore, would I put 9 points in that section, or 3(3 bonus points would be added to the 6 points for the touchdown, getting 9 total). I am currently using 9 points; if I am wrong and it means bonus points, my projections would overvalue wide receivers and quarterbacks, who are much more likely to score long touchdowns than running backs.
Also, I want to say I love your website because the scoring for the league I play in is much different than most leagues, meaning most of the projections out there do not fit my league well. I think your website will give me the edge I need to win my league this year.
Hi Tanner, you would put the additional points added by the bonus so put 3 points in that category so the touchdown itself is not double-counted.
I’m writing a drafting shell program in python with your projection table loaded into mysql (https://github.com/BrianThomasMcGrath/FantasyShell) and right now it will suggest a draft strategy based off of comparing all permutations of positions in the offensive starters for your picks in a snake draft, comparing the total vor of the teams. Is vor your go to metric for drafting a team? If there was a better one I would appreciate it so i could implement it in my program!
I don’t see how to actually add Other Players Drafted under the Other Players Drafted box in the Line Optimizer App.
After clicking the player’s name, entering the player’s cost, and clicking “Pick Player”, it should send them to “Other Player’s Drafted”.
Yeah, this does not work.
Working fine on my end. What happens when you click the name in the optimizer?
First off, I love your program; thank you! However, I am having the same problem. Also, when I am in the draft optimizer and I click on a “Pick” button/link, it crashes and takes me to the player rankings and any “Drafted” players I had disappear. This will be a huge issue if it happens during my draft. Any advice? Thank you in advance.
Did you try Val’s instructions (above)?
I think your tier system is a little off. Most of your DBs are in Tier 0 so there are 27 pages of tier 0 before finding tier 1, which makes it really hard to look an overall tier list. You also have up to tier 50 for LB and other non-value players. I think it would be beneficial to move the DBs to tier 50 so we can look at tier 1 and 2 etc on the first page.
Apart from the above inconsistency, it appears your tier rankings are made by VOR disparity. Which leads to David Johnson being the only tier 1 back, Bell the only tier 2, and McCoy and Freeman as tier 3 RBs. It also leads to IDPs, team D and Ks being in the low tiers (which is OK and can be sorted but is misleading when thinking about draft value). The tiers are also misleading because there is a VOR drop of about 9 points from tier 1 WR to tier 2 WR, and only a 1 point drop for K in the same tier (which is why many argue K draft value is so low).
Isaac, you may have answered this question somewhere already, but I put in my league scoring for QBs (they give 6 for passing TDs, 1 for every 20 passing yards instead of 25), and 2 points at 300 yards.
It’s also a 20 team league. This puts Rodgers, Brady, and Brees all as 1st round picks according to your projections, when most of the experts implore you to WAIT and be PATIENT on QBs. Do you think our scoring bumps QB value up that significantly or do you simply value qbs more than others?
My league commissioner just changed the settings to where our starters are 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 2W/R/T, 1K, 1D, no IDP (Family league, so we can’t boot the commish, he’s kin)
I plugged it in and it bumped QBs up even more (Rodgers at 3 overall, Brady and Brees at 5 and 14.
Is this because with 2 flex players RB and WR are interchangeable and therefore more open to being mixed and matched each week?
Still skeptical on QBs being ranked so high, but definitely talking myself into it.
Also, it seems RBs are valued much more than WR (Antonio Brown is top WR at 9th overall). Our league is PPR and gives 2 pts for 100yd rushers and 2pts for 150 yd receivers, which might account for the disparity.
I’d recommend changing your VOR baseline values to be consistent with your league settings (that will change how QBs are ranked relative to other positions): http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2013/04/win-your-snake-draft-calculating-value.html
We don’t value positions against each other. It all depends on your VOR baseline settings, which depend on your league settings and should be changed accordingly.
I’m having difficulty downloading raw projections. Every time I attempt to download, I get an error (using Chrome). “dlRawProj Failed – Server problem”. Let me know if you have any suggestions.
I have a league that awards a 2-point bonus for 40+ yd TD passes, regular TD passes are 4 points. When entering the scoring, in the box marked “40 yd pass TD,” should I enter 2 or 6?
2, this field is for the additional bonus associated with the long TD.
I’m having difficulty saving my custom settings in the app. Every time I go to save my league settings it disconnects me from the server. I am logged in to my account as normal. It seems to save my scoring settings and general settings correctly. Now, I’ve deleted my custom settings and am trying to save them again… I’m not having much luck saving my settings now. Is there a particular procedure that needs to be followed (general settings – scoring settings – league settings – save custom settings)?
Thanks in advance
I am having the same problem!
I echo rdookeran. For some reasons the costs of players is in the millions (when just a few days ago it was set more for a league at a $200 cap). I cannot seem to modify the settings to effect the projected auction price for a player and the cap is defaulted to 50000 (which I can change but it does not save or have an impact on the overall data). For what it is worth, I paid earlier this week for the site usage, and when I needed it for the draft, the site failed me. Sort of a bummer to be honest, but I know this is a lot of work and I am not upset just disappointed that the product did not work as I had used it earlier in the week for prep. Take care and looking forward to corrections.
Just renewed my sub for this year. I can not figure out how to download week1 porjections for my DFS lineups. All i see is season long no matter if I choose FD or DK. Can someone point me in the right direction.
As in past years, I am still having a heck of time getting league settings to save. I have to re-enter them each time no matter what.
We aren’t able to reproduce. Please provide the specific steps you’re taking, making sure to follow the instructions here:
Are you clicking “Save Custom Settings” or just “Save Settings” on the league setting dialog? The latter does not create a custom setting and will revert to default upon return. You will need to save custom Settings in order to be able to recall those from the league setting menu.
If it’s still not working, please provide the info we request in order to be able to reproduce:
Do you update rest of season projections??
We do not, if you can find a source for good ROS projections please let us know and we can try to incorporate.
I am having trouble downloading the custom rankings that include IDP. I updated my league and scoring settings, but IDP does not show up in the file when downloaded.
Any way we can get scoring categories for first downs?
Like 0.3 points for passing first downs? Or 0.5 points for rushing first downs?
Hey man, love the site and use the projections every year. I was wondering if you plan on updating those projections for 2020? Cheers.
Thanks Isaac. Love the site. It has helped me to top 3 finishes in 3 out of 4 years. For some reason, the projections for Defenses are not included in the table of Projections for 2020– I can’t seem to add them by choosing DST in the Positions section of the Grid Filters. Any reason why this would be? Or am I making a mistake?
Yes, DSTs aren’t up yet. We’re working hard to add those as soon as possible.
Awesome, thank you! Also I think rookies might be missing as well…
Getting Disconnected from server Reload and app never loads what is remedy?
Like so many others, no matter what PC/browser I try, all I get is the disconnected from server message. Never had this problem from the same PCs in years past.
Any reliable work-arounds?
Hi Chris, it should be up now! If it’s not working for you, try the steps in the FAQ and fill out a bug report. Thanks!
Isaac, you might just first initiate to a modal to a that explains that section of the FAQ for users so they aren’t confused. They can then disable the cookie setting first, and then proceed to the server side when they click proceed on the modal. Just an idea.
Also, probably because there’s an issue with Leonard Fournette having been a free agent, he’s repeating in your highest ceiling optimal lineup section.
Your site is amazing. Really nice work.
Keep getting the disconnected from server button. Followed FAQ still not working tried 3 laptops a tablet and phone, always “disconnected from server” HELP
Is this down? Have been trying to get custom league projections and I will not let me save my league settings. Any help?
We have been working hard to build and develop our product. We have been upgrading and testing recently, and the system is working. Please give it another try.