How to Win Your Auction Draft

Looking to crush your fantasy football auction draft league? Our Lineup Optimizer is here to help! Through our webapp, this tool delivers unparalleled accuracy by pulling data from multiple projection sources and gives you full control to apply any league settings. The tool will pick the players who maximize projected points for the user’s scoring settings, while balancing consistency and minimizing risk. Let’s break down how this game-changing tool works and how you can use it to build the ultimate auction draft strategy. To use the Lineup Optimizer, you will need to subscribe to FFA Insider (for more info, see here).

How it Works

  1. A script is used to pull player projections and average auction values (AAV) from various sources to calculate player salaries based on the user’s settings.

  2. From the user’s scoring settings, we calculate players’ projections using an average of the analysts’ projections (by default, the sources are weighted according to historical accuracy).

  3. We calculate a player’s uncertainty level using two values: the range of projections and the standard deviation, weighted equally (50/50). The combined result is adjusted to fit a scale from 1 to 99. On this scale, a higher number means the player is less predictable (more uncertain), while a lower number means their performance is more consistent and reliable.

    Range of projections: This is the difference between the highest and lowest projections for the player, showing how much the predictions vary.
    Standard deviation: This measures how spread out the projections are, giving another view of variability.

  4. Based on the user’s set position requirements, number of teams in the league, cap available, and maximum risk, the app then finds your optimal lineup. It will maximize the lineup’s projected points using the Golem package, while meeting all the constraints set by the user. For a similar execution using Excel’s Solver function, see here.

  5. Players’ average auction values (AAV) from the sources you select (e.g., Yahoo, ESPN), are adjusted based on the league cap and the number of teams in your league.  A player’s cost salary is then calculated by deflating/inflating the adjusted AAV according to your inputs. Consistent with a Harvard analysis on the optimal draft strategy, by default, a 10% premium is applied to the top 30 players and a 10% discount to each player ranked past 90th. According to the study, the majority of one’s excess cap should be spent on the starting lineup, and less on bench players. This is because bench players do not contribute much to the team’s projected points for. It is generally best to draft starters with minimal risk to ensure solid, and hopefully superior performance.

  6. On the other hand, one should accept more risk with bench players because such a move has a low risk, high reward potential. The 10% adjustment results in a (projected) salary, reflecting the cost you should expect and be willing to pay for a player if he is selected by the optimizer. The projected salary does not always align with the projected points because the projected salary is derived from the AAV of the sites selected and not the projected points. That’s because draft costs will be in large part driven by your site’s AAV, which greatly influences what other people in your league will be willing to pay for each player.

  7. Note on VOR: you may notice defenses and kickers have a negative VOR value. Why? A penalty is applied to the VOR values for DSTs and kickers to make the rankings more realistic and reflect the fact that DSTs and Kickers are the least predictable. The penalty was based on where the DST and Kickers were placed before penalty. Kickers were about 17–20 points over the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and DSTs were 5–7 points over. This makes the VOR penalty -18 for kickers and -6 for DSTs.

Strategy

To win your fantasy football auction draft, it’s essential to spend wisely and build your roster with intention. Here are seven key strategies for drafting like a pro using our Lineup Optimizer:

  1. Prioritize Your Starting Lineup
    Spend the majority of your cap on high-performing starters. Managers make a key mistake when overspending on bench players, and under spending on critical starters. Remember: your starting lineup scores the points, bench depth matters later, and DSTs/kickers are hard to predict.

  2. Pay For Consistent Starters and High Ceiling Bench Players
    For your starters, target players with a solid floor and minimal risk to anchor your weekly performance. Bench players should be high-upside swings, uncertainty is okay if there is high ceiling potential.

  3. Effectively Use Dropoff and Uncertainty
    It is generally best to draft starters with low uncertainty values, while maintaining high projected ceilings and floors. After the top tier players come off the board and bench players start to be auctioned, the risk associated with each pick becomes manageable if the starting lineup is strong. Thus, identifying productive players with higher uncertainty values, potentially high ceilings, but low floors can pay off big time in later rounds.

    To better understand dropoff, let’s assume that Allen, Lamar, and Mahomes are projected as the top three fantasy QBs and to score the following points:

    Allen: 300 points | AAV: $75 ADP: 30
    Lamar: 290 points | AAV: $55 ADP: 42
    Mahomes: 250 points | AAV: $45 ADP: 47

    A decision purely based on rankings would mean paying for Allen. If we look at the projected points, Allen is only projected to score 10 more points than Lamar, who is projected to score 40 more points than Mahomes. Based on the small dropoff from Allen to Lamar, and the larger dropoff from Lamar to Mahomes in this scenario. There is more potential value to be gained by passing on Allen for Lamar and allocating the excess cap to other positions. Manipulating AAV with dropoff and uncertainty is an invaluable skill to a successful drafter.

  4. Applying VOR (Value Over Replacement) to Decision Making
    VOR is a powerful way to determine which players give you the most bang for your buck. Rather than blindly following projections or average auction values, VOR helps you see how much better a player is than other options across positions. A VOR of 0 simply means that player’s projected points is equal to that of the replacement level player at the position. This metric makes it easier to justify paying a premium for elite positional advantages or recognizing when a mid-tier player offers nearly the same value for a much lower cost. When comparing players across different positions at similar prices, you should favor the one with the higher VOR. Those incremental advantages add up over the course of a season and bring the most value to your team. More on VOR can be found here.

  5. Have the Confidence to Go Get Your Guys
    Auction drafts reward decisiveness. If there’s a player you believe in based on your research, team fit, or breakout potential, be willing to pay slightly over market to secure them. The optimizer can help you identify targets that align with your budget and build. Still remain flexible throughout the draft and do not lock in too much on favorites. Smart spending doesn’t mean playing it safe or by the book, it means knowing when and how to strike.

  6. Understanding Team Structures
    There are generally two ways to go with an auction draft, stars and scrubs or a balanced roster. The stars and scrubs approach means spending big on elite players and filling the rest of your roster with low cost fliers. This strategy offers a massive ceiling if your stars stay healthy and your fliers hit, but leaves little room for error. A balanced approach spreads your budget more across your roster, making your team less vulnerable to busts or injuries. It’s a safer structure, but may come up short due to a lack of star power. The optimal structure depends on your league format and comfort level, experiment in mock drafts while using the optimizer.

  7. Nomination Strategy
    This is one of the most overlooked edges in auction formats. Early nominations can be used to bait your league mates into overspending. By nominating popular players you don’t want, especially early, you gain intel on how the rest of the draft will pan out and force league mates to spend. On the flip side, be careful when nominating your own targets. If thrown out too early, they could be bid up beyond your budget and if you wait too long, you may have spent your money elsewhere. Waiting too long can also drive the price up if the player becomes perceived as the last remaining option in a tier or shows a steep dropoff at their position. You will get better value by avoiding nominating the first or last player in a tier when bidding tends to be most aggressive. The best nomination strategies adapt in real time based on available budgets, what positions teams need, and how the draft board is unfolding.

Auction Draft Settings

Sidebar Controls

  • Season: Select the NFL season for projections
  • Week: Select ‘Season’ for the full season projections

Main Settings

General

  • Roster Size: Select the number of roster spots for each team
  • Number of Teams: Select the number of teams in your league
  • Positions: Select the position types available in your league
  • Maximum Players: Maximum number of players displayed in projections

Number of Starters

  • Select the number of starters for each position

Data Aggregation

  • Impute Replacement Level Points for Missed Games: Check box to add points of the “typical replacement player” for each game a player is expected to miss
  • Average Type: Choose between three projection calculation methods:
    • Weighted Average (Default): Uses analyst weights based on historical accuracy
    • Mean: Equal weights for all analysts
    • Robust Average: Reduces impact of outlier projections
  • Analysts Selection
    • Choose which analysts to include in projections
    • Set custom weights for each analyst when using weighted average
    • FantasyPros and FantasyFootballNerd, by default, are excluded from the weighting to avoid double counting of sources. The user can weight them in the data aggregation settings if they would like to

Cost Multipliers

  • High Rank: Rank threshold at which the High Rank Cost Multiplier is applied
  • High Rank Cost Multipliers: Multiplier applied to high rank players
  • Low Rank: Rank threshold at which the Low Rank Cost Multiplier is applied
  • Low Rank Cost Multipliers: Multiplier applied to low rank players

Auction Settings

  • Salary Cap: Total salary available for your lineup
  • Bench Cap: Total cap to reserve for bench players
  • AAV Source: Select your DFS platform for accurate salary data
  • Optimizer Objective: Choose optimization target:
    • Points: Maximize expected points
    • Ceiling: Maximize upside potential
    • Floor: Maximize safety/consistency
  • Max Uncertainty: Set threshold for player projection risk
  • Custom Cost: Upload custom salary data via CSV file

Scoring Settings

  • Configure point values for each statistical category

How to Use the Lineup Optimizer

Viewing the Optimal Lineup

  • The optimizer automatically displays the default optimal starting lineup based on your current settings
  • This lineup maximizes based on your selection for Optimizer Objective (default = points) while staying within salary constraints

Locking Players in your Lineup

  • For players already in the optimal lineup:
    1. Use the Projection Details table to find the player
    2. You can search by name, team, or position
    3. Click the lock icon next to their name
    4. Enter the salary you paid/will pay
    5. Click Submit to confirm
  • For players not in the current optimal lineup:
    1. Use the Projection Details table to find the player
    2. You can search by name, team, or position
    3. Click the lock icon next to their name
    4. Enter the salary you paid/will pay
    5. Click Submit to confirm

Removing Players

  • To unlock a previously locked player: Click the blue unlock icon
  • To exclude a player from consideration: Click the red X in the Exclude column

Removing Players

  • The optimizer automatically recalculates the optimal lineup after each change
  • This includes:
    • Locking players
    • Unlocking players
    • Excluding players
    • Changing any settings

Optimizer Definitions

Below are key metric definitions used in player projections and lineup optimization

Projection Details

  • Salary: Player’s draft/auction cost
  • Floor: 10th percentile projection (downside scenario)
  • Points: Average projected points across selected analysts
  • Ceiling: 90th percentile projection (upside scenario)
  • SD: Standard deviation of projections
  • Uncertainty: Variability and risk associated with player projections (1 = little uncertainty, 99 = large degree of uncertainty). Learn more about uncertainty.
  • Tier: Position-based performance tier
  • PPD: Points per Dollar (value metric)
  • AAV: Average Auction Value

Visualization

  • Projection Graph: Scatter plot showing salary vs. projected points
    • Trend line slope interpretation: Points increase per $1,000 salary
    • Example: Slope of 2.27 means $1 salary increase typically yields 2.27 additional projected points
    • Use the dropdown filter to change the position shown in the graph