Winning Fantasy Football with Projections, Value Over Replacement, and Value-Based Drafting

Draft day in fantasy football is all about making informed decisions and a successful season depends on accurate player projections and a strategic approach. Building a great fantasy roster often requires more than just knowledge of player stats. When looking for an edge, using advanced metrics such as value over replacement (VOR) and drop off can be the advantage you need to build a championship team. These metrics are part of the Fantasy Football Analytics projections, which can be found here. By incorporating them into a value-based drafting strategy, you can assess player value more precisely and avoid common pitfalls. In this article, we’ll break down these key concepts and demonstrate how they can give you a competitive edge, giving you the best chance to build a winning roster.

Understanding Value Over Replacement

Value over replacement (VOR) is an important metric in fantasy football that measures a player’s projection relative to a baseline replacement-level player. VOR represents a player’s true value by quantifying how much better they are compared to this baseline.

When calculating VOR, the way you choose your baseline can change your results. One common method is to use the worst starter or first bench player, giving a straightforward comparison to a “replacement-level” player. Another method is the man-games approach, which looks at the total number of games needed to fill out a season at each position and then figures out how many players it usually takes to produce those games. This is great if you want to account for missed games. You can also set the baseline by looking at how many players are typically drafted by pick 100 or by the 10th round, which can be helpful in adjusting for different league sizes. Each method offers a unique perspective, and the best choice depends on your league’s format and draft strategy.

One of the key advantages of VOR is its ability to facilitate comparisons between players across different positions. By standardizing player value relative to their respective position’s baseline, VOR allows you to evaluate players’ contributions more effectively. This approach provides a clearer perspective on how players stack up against each other, regardless of their position.

For example, if a QB is projected to score 300 points in a season while the replacement-level QB is projected to score 250 points, the QB’s VOR is 50 (300 – 250). Similarly, if a RB is projected for 200 points and the replacement-level RB is projected for 125 points, the RB’s VOR is 75 (200 – 125). Although the QB is expected to score more points overall, the RB provides more relative value compared to the replacement level.

Understanding Drop Off in Production

Drop off is another key metric to consider during your fantasy football draft. It refers to the decline in production between players at a given position and those immediately below them, revealing distinct tiers within each position. Identifying drop offs helps you avoid overpaying for a player when comparable options are available later in the draft. It also highlights positions where securing a top-tier player can significantly improve your team’s chances of success.

For example, if there are several WRs projected to score similarly, resulting in low drop off values, you might find better value in another position with a slightly lower VOR but a high drop off. Prioritizing the other position could be advantageous, knowing you can still obtain a WR with solid value later. On the other hand, if there is a notable drop off in production between the top two TEs and the rest of the field, drafting one of these elite TEs early could provide a substantial advantage over your opponents.

How can you use VOR and Drop Off in your drafting strategy?

Value-based drafting focuses on maximizing the overall value of your team rather than simply filling positional needs. The goal is to assemble the highest-scoring team possible by selecting the best players available based on their projected VOR. By ranking players according to their expected contribution above replacement level, VOR ensures that you prioritize those who offer the greatest value, regardless of position.

While using a value-based approach, you might choose to pass on a lower-ranked RB in favor of a higher-ranked WR, even if your roster already has strong receivers. This strategy helps you build a team with the highest projected value. For example, if you’re deciding between a RB with a VOR of 25 and a WR with a VOR of 50, the value-based approach would suggest selecting the WR due to their higher relative value, even if it means having a surplus at that position, particularly among starters.

Adding the drop off metric into your strategy can help you identify where performance drop within a position group is minimal, allowing you to wait to draft those positions without losing significant value, and prioritize areas with more pronounced value gaps. Additionally, drop off highlights significant production gaps within a position group, helping you recognize when it’s worth prioritizing a top player to avoid a steep decline in value later in the draft.

While VOR is particularly useful in the early rounds of your draft by helping you identify the highest-impact players, as the draft progresses, it can be more beneficial to consider other metrics, such as uncertainty, to find potential sleepers. Uncertainty measures the variability in a player’s projections, which can help you identify high-risk, high-reward players who might outperform their draft position. We’ll delve into the importance of uncertainty and how to use it effectively in your later draft rounds in a future article.

By combining VOR and drop off, you create a data-driven plan for making draft decisions. This approach helps you avoid common mistakes, such as overvaluing players based on positional needs alone. Instead, you build a team with the highest overall potential, giving you the best chance for fantasy football success.

VOR and Drop Off Analysis

Now that we’ve explained VOR and how it can be used in fantasy football drafts, we will examine a box-and-whisker plot to gain additional insights into potential draft strategies. Keep in mind that these insights are scoring and lineup dependent, so different leagues will yield different results. For this analysis, I used PPR scoring and a 1 QB / 2 RB / 3 WR / 1 TE / 1 Flex lineup.

Understanding VOR Through a Box and Whisker Plot

Quarterbacks

For QBs, the VOR tends to be lower compared to RBs and WRs, with a median around 25 VOR. The right skew in the data indicates that while most QBs offer limited additional value over the replacement level, a few significantly outperform the rest, pulling the distribution to the right. This skewness suggests that securing one of the top-performing QBs can provide a significant advantage, as there is a noticeable drop off after the top tier. Therefore, if you don’t secure a top QB early, it makes sense to wait until later in the draft to select one.

Running Backs

The median VOR for RBs is slightly under 50, and the interquartile range (IQR) is the largest among all positions. This indicates a wider spread in the middle 50% of the data, reflecting greater variability in player performance across the position. Targeting top RBs can provide a significant advantage, but it’s also important to be mindful of the drop offs within the position group.

Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers have a median VOR just above 50 and a smaller IQR compared to RBs, indicating a tighter clustering around the median. This suggests less of a drop off between players, offering more consistency in WR value. While it may be easier to find dependable WRs throughout the draft due to this, securing those top WRs can still provide an advantage.

Tight Ends

Tight Ends have a median VOR of around 38 and the tightest IQR among all positions. This narrow IQR indicates consistent drop offs between players. While this consistency can simplify decision-making, the lack of high-performing outliers means the advantage gained from top TEs may be less pronounced compared to other positions.

Analyzing VOR Decline by Position Group

Finally, visualizing the data using a line plot can also be beneficial and provide a different view of the data. A line plot provides insights into the rate of decline of VOR values across different positions, helping you identify trends.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

For QBs and TEs, the top players have relatively low VOR values but there is a steep decline in value. While securing top players in these positions can be important due to the quick drop off, the overall impact on your team’s value is less evident compared to RBs and WRs. This suggests that while it can be beneficial to get top-tier QBs and TEs, their VOR values are significantly lower, making their impact less substantial.

Running Backs

Running backs offer substantial value at the top, before leveling out after about the first five players. There is a second drop off at this position after about the first 15 players, and the gap in value between RBs and WRs widens. Therefore, prioritizing RBs early in drafts can be a great strategy due to their high VOR values and large drop off after the top tiers. Failing to secure at least one of the top backs can make it challenging to be competitive at this position, as this is the hardest position to find value later in the draft.

Wide Receivers

Wide receivers offer significant value at the top and display the gentlest decline among all positions. This gradual drop off after the top ten players indicates that WRs maintain consistent value throughout the ranks. As a result, while securing a top WR can be a great tactic, this is a deep position which allows for less urgency in securing top-ranked WRs compared to RBs.

Wrapping Up

Accurate projections, value over replacement, and understanding drop off are important tools for building a great fantasy football team. By leveraging these data-driven strategies, you can make informed decisions that give you a competitive edge. These metrics are available for download on our web application, providing you with the insights you need to dominate your fantasy league.