2024 League Winners and Losers

As we enter the 2024 season, identifying ways to gain competitive advantages over league mates through strategic insights will help managers make informed decisions during drafts and in season. Monitoring the off, and in season news closely can provide a crucial edge in winning your fantasy leagues. We will use our data from the FFA App to highlight some of the players primed to outperform expectations and those who might disappointment in 2024.

Winner: Jared Goff

Goff has been an extremely consistent QB since being drafted first overall in 2016, with a career average fantasy finish of QB13. He has an improved resume since arriving in Detroit, finishing as a top ten fantasy QB twice, reaching the 2023 NFC championship, and signing a four-year extension this offseason. We project Goff to finish at his career average of QB13, but his ESPN ADP by position is slightly lower around QB17. The Lions have brought in a few names this offseason but will be returning most of their guys for 2024. Notable loses in WR Josh Reynolds and G Jonah Jackson. Kevin Zeitler was brought in to fill the hole at guard and is already fitting in. The roster is perfect for Goff to maintain a high weekly ceiling and low floor going into year four in this offense. There are dynamic players all around him and he has averaged less than 10 INTs per year in DET. This has allowed HC Dan Campbell to trust his veteran QB’s decision making in the biggest moments, getting them a few costly drops away from the Super Bowl. Goff’s proven ability to lead high scoring offenses and the system built around him makes Goff a safe bet to hit his projections in 2024.

Week 2 Outlook:

In the first Sunday night game of the season against the Rams, the Lions stuck to a run first approach. They called a screen to Jahmyr Gibbs and seven run plays to secure the win with a David Montgomery touchdown in overtime. Amon Ra and Sam Laporta both had quiet games, combining for 58 yards. This was due to Goff’s rough home opener for fantasy purposes, he finished as the QB18 completing 18/28 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown totaling 13.38 fantasy points. He will look to bounce back in week 2 and move to 2-0 with another home game. They take on the Bucs who allowed Jayden Daniels to finish as the QB4 in his first NFL start. While he has a much different play style than Goff, they ranked 29th in passing yards allowed per game in 2023. In this advantageous matchup for Goff, we project him to finish with 21 points as QB10 in 6 points per passing touchdown (PPTD) leagues and 17.7 points as QB14 in 4 PPTD leagues.

Winner: Rachaad White

Drafted by the Bucs in the second round of the 2022 draft, White has since worked his way into the starting job. He showed flashes competing with Leonard Fournette during Tom Brady’s last run, becoming a hidden gem during his rookie season in limited playing time. In 2023, White took on a heavy workload that continued to increase as he made more big plays. After week 11 White carried the ball 131 times, this would have him on pace for 300+ carries through a full season. One flaw in White’s game has been efficiency on the ground, averaging 3.6 YPC (yards per carry) in both of his NFL seasons. His main strength comes in the passing game, among RBs he was 3rd in receiving yards, 4th in receptions and 10th in targets. While adding Bucky Irving in the fourth round of this year’s draft might seem scary, it could benefit White in 2024. Split backfields have become very common around the NFL with teams wanting to keep their players healthy. Seven RBs in 2010 had over 300 carries, while last year the leader was Derrick Henry with 280. The addition will get White a few more breathers, potentially allowing him to increase his efficiency while still retaining most of the workload. In 2023 he ranked second in carries inside the 10 with 76% of the team’s total and will look to retain these valuable touches moving forward. We project White to finish as the RB9 and is currently being drafted as the RB16. Volume is king for RBs, and this is a great price to target a potential 300+ touch back.

Week 2 Outlook:

This was a backfield to watch in week one and will continue that way again this week. The Bucs led the Commanders for the entire game, allowing them to chew the clock late. White carried the ball 15 times for a very inefficient 31 yards but was able to remain a passing weapon, catching all of his six targets for 75 yards. 8/10 of Irving’s touches came in the second half while the Bucs led by more than two touchdowns and he received none in the redzone. This was an interesting game script, it allowed both backs to shine with White finishing as the RB16 and Irving having over 70 total yards. As they head to Detroit for week two, White can be started confidently as an RB2/3 and Irving may start to be picked up off waivers.

Loser: Chris Olave

New Orleans has been mediocre at best since the retirement of Drew Brees, putting out seven different starting QBs for a combined record of 25-26. The addition of Derek Carr last offseason was not enough to reach the playoffs and did not elevate Olave’s game. He only produced one additional touchdown, 81 yards, and 15 receptions in 16 games compared to his 15 game rookie season. Now headed into their second year together he has an ADP on ESPN of 24 (WR10). Around this ADP, he is seen being drafted ahead of multiple WRs who outscored him in total points and PPG in 2023. The FFA App projects that some of these WRs, including Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins and Mike Evans will outscore Olave once again in 2024. We project Olave to finish as WR13 in .5PPR but have him as our 43rd player overall. This huge gap shows complete disagreement with the consensus and suggests fading Olave at ADP. For the first since 2009, there is a new offensive coordinator in New Orleans. Klint Kubiak comes in after a year as the 49ers passing game coordinator and while it is still early, we saw them be very effective in week one. The Saints are being projected 7.5 wins on Fan Duel and anything can happen, but they will likely be hoping for a top pick in next year’s draft to improve in 2025. They have failed to address the lack of playmakers on offense year after year while the rest of the league is rapidly improving. Bringing in Spencer Rattler is an interesting move, but he is likely a project player on top of needing an injury to see the field. Target competition remains slim for Olave, one addition being WR Bub Means in the 5th round and an extension for Rashid Shaheed. The offense will run through Olave and Kamara, but their ceilings are capped due to the situation in NO.

Week 2 Outlook:

We saw the Saints dominate in their home opener, securing a 47-10 win over the Panthers. Seeing the score, Olave was surprisingly only able to catch his two lone targets for 11 yards. Even in the blowout, he still led the offense seeing 79% of the snaps. In 2023, Olave had 5 receiving touchdowns which was only good for 17.8% of the teams total 28 recieving touchdowns. Carr had 200 yards going 19/23 on passing attempts but also threw three touchdowns. They had a very efficient opener, and we project Olave to have 10.4 points in week 2 with a very low uncertainty. As the Saints head to Dallas to face one of the leagues top defenses, he will look for more volume and aim for his first touchdown of the season.

Quick Week 2 Takes:

Mark Andrews: Week One – 2/2 14 Yards

The Chiefs were the toughest matchup for tight ends in 2023, allowing just 7.8 fantasy points per game. Throughout Andrews’ career, he is yet to catch a touchdown and has not had a game over 55 receiving yards against the Chiefs. Not to mention he was reportedly in a car accident two weeks before the season started. He still played in 74% of the snaps, topping Likely’s 64% in his breakout performance in the season’s opener. This slow start in week one presents a massive buy low opportunity on Andrews, who we project in PPR to finish as the TE4 on the season and TE7 in week two.

Jayden Reed: Week One – 171 All Purpose Yards 2 TDs

Reed dominated in Brazil, scoring a 33 yard touchdown on his only carry and a 70 yard bomb through the air. He also had a huge play for the first touchdown of the game called back and topped the teams snap percentage with 72%. The question is now the health of Jordan Love. The MCL sprain Love sustained in Brazil leaves Malik Willis as the likely starter in the meantime, but what will the offense look like with him under center? Expectations for Reed must be downgraded in the short term, but the injury to Love presents a possible buy window on Reed if his numbers tone down for a few weeks. We project Reed 11.6 PPR points and to finish as the WR34 in week 2 against the Colts. The Colts ranked as a middle of the pack defense in 2023, but Reed is likely best left on benches this week due to the QB situation.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Week One – 25 Carries/120 Yards and 1 TD

The Patriots took the lead at the start of the second quarter with a Stevenson touchdown and did not trail for the rest of the game. The Bengals missed a few opportunities, and the Patriots controlled the clock very well with 9 more minutes of possession. They had a total of 39 carries between Stevenson, Gibson, and Brissett, kicking 3 field goals in the 16-10 win. This will likely be an uncommon game script for the Patriots this season, but the defense kept Joe Burrow frustrated all game, finishing with 164 yards and 0 touchdowns. They had a total of 121 receiving yards, led by Austin Hooper with 31. It will be tough for Stevenson and the Patriots to retain these levels of rushing volume if they start trailing. He is a potential sell after the strong week one for a player in a higher powered offense. We project Stevenson to finish the week strong as the RB12 with 14.5 PPR points and while he holds a ton of value, there is a high uncertainty attached to his situation.