I really like how you show the floor and the ceiling, its really nice but I would like to make two inputs for improvement or to think about.
1. It changes a lot through the week who will play or to determine the snap distribution between RBs. This week: Rawls/Michael or Ware/Charles.
I couldnt even find Ware although he should have a pretty high ceiling because there is a good chance Charles wont suit up.
I dont know if you will update the graphis as the week goes on, I seem to remember last season that was not the case.
So I would be better to show the graphics on saturday when the projections are updated because of practice reports.
2. I play on nfl.com and the projections are pretty useless. As shown in the graphic the high ceilings of T.Hightower and J.Allen are solely based on the projections of nfl.com. If I exclude them on the Projections app their ceilings drop to around 6 which should be more realistic than 12 for a 2nd or maybe 3rd string RBs.I
I dont say they are not capable of putting 12 points this week and maybe you can make a case that they could suprise but I dont think that anybody on nfl.com is really putting some effort trying to make some logical projections. I will show you:
On nfl.com there are either a TD or not. So Randall Cobb is projected to have 4.5 points and thats completely off other projections thats why he has got such low floor here. And thats just because he is not projected to score a TD just 45 yards, but on the other hand you have guys like Coates, Kerley, Grant who are projected to put around 10 yards but a TD which put them over guys like Randall Cobb. That does not make any sense.
Other projections include TD projections with decimal digits like Yahoo or numberfire etc. Than it just shows the probability of scoring.
Another example projections from nfl.com: Brees is projected to throw 2 TDs in Week 1 against Oakland, now if you look at the projected receiving TDs of his receivers and running backs:
Brandin Cooks 1, Michael Thomas 1, Josh Hill 1, Mark Ingram receiving TD 1, Tim Hightower receiving TD 1 in total= 5 TDs. It doesnt figure.
I always exlude the projections from nfl.com in the projections app or look at the “robust” but in these weekly graphics they are always shown which bothered me even last season. I just wanted you to show this if you are not already in knowledge. Whether or not you make something is up to you guys.
Question: Last year you got more weekly projections like numberfire etc. this year I can only see 4 of it, will you include them until sunday?
Thank you, I appreciate your the work you guys put in this amazing website.
We agree that some sources include better projections than others. We plan to include more sources. Let us know which sources to include, and we’ll try to add them (if they’re scrape-able). You can easily exclude sources using our Projections Tool. Even though we post the articles on Wednesday, we update the projections throughout the week (including floor and ceiling) on the Projections Tool.
Re: Ware I relaxed the restrictions on the tables so that we show projections for players with only 2 or 3 projection sources. Later in the season, we will have more weekly projection sources. At the moment, we are working with four.
This website is the bomb! Combining two things I love. Very cool.
I’m using your projection table you have provided on the website. I notice that all of the ceiling (3rd quartile?) projections are 9. No player has a higher or lower ceiling projection.
I’ve also noticed that the floor projection (1st quartile?) is sometimes higher than the ceiling projection. (See: A. Robinson, E. Decker, M. Forte, L. McCoy). There is also a similar problem where the mean is higher than the ceiling. (See same players).
I think the problem is just in the ceiling column?
Again, I’m loving the website. Maybe I’ll try the R package as well!
What is the plan for updating projections going forward? Don’t most league participants need the information by today to make informed Waiver decisions?
I love the tools. I’m just unclear on the process for updating data and when to come here to use the tools as a result.
Tyty. I am a paid subscriber as of last month. I like the service and I think it should be supported.
In the NFL league, waivers take place on Wednesday. If Wednesday is the normal time for posting here, I suppose I will have to accept missing it for this aspect of tinkering. lol.
As you probably know, there are two places where you can get projections on this site. One is in the apps and the other is in these articles. The apps are being updated Tuesday Evenings. This article gets posted Wednesday Afternoon. There is room for us to streamline the process and if we can push up the time to Tuesday, I’ll post something about it here.
I really like how you show the floor and the ceiling, its really nice but I would like to make two inputs for improvement or to think about.
1. It changes a lot through the week who will play or to determine the snap distribution between RBs. This week: Rawls/Michael or Ware/Charles.
I couldnt even find Ware although he should have a pretty high ceiling because there is a good chance Charles wont suit up.
I dont know if you will update the graphis as the week goes on, I seem to remember last season that was not the case.
So I would be better to show the graphics on saturday when the projections are updated because of practice reports.
2. I play on nfl.com and the projections are pretty useless. As shown in the graphic the high ceilings of T.Hightower and J.Allen are solely based on the projections of nfl.com. If I exclude them on the Projections app their ceilings drop to around 6 which should be more realistic than 12 for a 2nd or maybe 3rd string RBs.I
I dont say they are not capable of putting 12 points this week and maybe you can make a case that they could suprise but I dont think that anybody on nfl.com is really putting some effort trying to make some logical projections. I will show you:
On nfl.com there are either a TD or not. So Randall Cobb is projected to have 4.5 points and thats completely off other projections thats why he has got such low floor here. And thats just because he is not projected to score a TD just 45 yards, but on the other hand you have guys like Coates, Kerley, Grant who are projected to put around 10 yards but a TD which put them over guys like Randall Cobb. That does not make any sense.
Other projections include TD projections with decimal digits like Yahoo or numberfire etc. Than it just shows the probability of scoring.
Another example projections from nfl.com: Brees is projected to throw 2 TDs in Week 1 against Oakland, now if you look at the projected receiving TDs of his receivers and running backs:
Brandin Cooks 1, Michael Thomas 1, Josh Hill 1, Mark Ingram receiving TD 1, Tim Hightower receiving TD 1 in total= 5 TDs. It doesnt figure.
I always exlude the projections from nfl.com in the projections app or look at the “robust” but in these weekly graphics they are always shown which bothered me even last season. I just wanted you to show this if you are not already in knowledge. Whether or not you make something is up to you guys.
Question: Last year you got more weekly projections like numberfire etc. this year I can only see 4 of it, will you include them until sunday?
Thank you, I appreciate your the work you guys put in this amazing website.
We agree that some sources include better projections than others. We plan to include more sources. Let us know which sources to include, and we’ll try to add them (if they’re scrape-able). You can easily exclude sources using our Projections Tool. Even though we post the articles on Wednesday, we update the projections throughout the week (including floor and ceiling) on the Projections Tool.
ESPN and fantasy pros would be nice
Re: Ware I relaxed the restrictions on the tables so that we show projections for players with only 2 or 3 projection sources. Later in the season, we will have more weekly projection sources. At the moment, we are working with four.
This website is the bomb! Combining two things I love. Very cool.
I’m using your projection table you have provided on the website. I notice that all of the ceiling (3rd quartile?) projections are 9. No player has a higher or lower ceiling projection.
I’ve also noticed that the floor projection (1st quartile?) is sometimes higher than the ceiling projection. (See: A. Robinson, E. Decker, M. Forte, L. McCoy). There is also a similar problem where the mean is higher than the ceiling. (See same players).
I think the problem is just in the ceiling column?
Again, I’m loving the website. Maybe I’ll try the R package as well!
Seth Frndak
I mistakenly typed “mean(ceiling)” instead of “round(ceiling)”. This is corrected.
Is the code to produce these graphs available in the github repo?
https://github.com/isaactpetersen/FantasyFootballAnalyticsR/tree/master/R%20Scripts/Weekly%20Projections/Gold%20Mining
What is the plan for updating projections going forward? Don’t most league participants need the information by today to make informed Waiver decisions?
I love the tools. I’m just unclear on the process for updating data and when to come here to use the tools as a result.
They’re up now. For more info when we release projections, see here:
https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#weeklyWhen
Tyty. I am a paid subscriber as of last month. I like the service and I think it should be supported.
In the NFL league, waivers take place on Wednesday. If Wednesday is the normal time for posting here, I suppose I will have to accept missing it for this aspect of tinkering. lol.
As you probably know, there are two places where you can get projections on this site. One is in the apps and the other is in these articles. The apps are being updated Tuesday Evenings. This article gets posted Wednesday Afternoon. There is room for us to streamline the process and if we can push up the time to Tuesday, I’ll post something about it here.
I was wondering the same thing…When will the new projections appear each week? Thank you very much!
They’re up now. For more info when we release projections, see here:
https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#weeklyWhen