Week 13 Preview

My Favorite Value Plays this week are:

 

RB Spencer Ware (KC) (vs. Falcons)

Ware is one of the most overdue players for a TD given his workload. Although regression to the mean acts over the course of a time period and not the next upcoming individual week; the Falcons’ inability to stop the RB position, especially through the air, is enough to confidently play Ware and expect this to be the week that he makes it into the end zone.

WR Sammy Watkins (BUF) (vs. Raiders)

Watkins was a on a snap count last game playing only 45% of total snaps, yet he still recorded 80yds. This week the Bills will be without Robert Woods, Percy Harvin, and possibly Charles Clay (Game-time decision). If Watkins’ snap count increases as expected he could be in for a massive performance.

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Below is the Average Opponents Defensive Rank Per Position for the Playoff Weeks of 14,15, and 16. (Standard League Scoring)

The players are listed in order based on the appeal of schedule (i.e. higher number is better)

QB					RB
Rivers	SD	26.66			Stewart	CAR	27.66
Siemian/Lynch	DEN	24			Hill	CIN	27.66
Fitzpatrick	NYJ	23			McCoy	BUF	24.33
Carr	OAK	22.66			Gurley	LA	23
Goff	LA	22.33			Hyde	SF	22
Ryan	ATL	21.66			Miller	HOU	21.33
Barkley	CHI	21.66			Crowell	CLE	21.33
Newton	CAR	20.66			Murray	OAK	21
Bradford	MIN	20.66			Gordon	SD	19.66
Manning	NYG	20.66			Martin	TB	19.66
Osweiler	HOU	20.33			McKinnon/Asiata	MIN	19.33
Winston	TB	19.66			Forte	NYJ	19
Kaepernick	SF	19			Ware	KC	19
Taylor	BUF	18.33			Freeman/Coleman	ATL	18.33
Smith	KC	18			Gore	IND	18
Romo	DAL	16.33			Murray	TEN	17.33
Cousins	WAS	16			Dixon/West	BAL	16.66
McCown/RG3	CLE	15			Johnson	ARI	16
Dalton	CIN	14			Howard	CHI	15.33
Brees	NO	14			Ingram/Hightower	NO	14
Stafford	DET	14			Sproles/Mathews	PHI	13.66
Palmer	ARI	13.66			Blount	NE	13.66
Roethlisberger	PIT	13			Ivory/Yeldon	JAC	13.33
Flacco	BAL	12.66			Elliot	DAL	13
Wilson	SEA	12.33			Bell	PIT	12.66
Wentz	PHI	11.66			Rawls	SEA	12
Luck	IND	11.33			Ajayi	MIA	11.66
Mariota	TEN	11.33			Booker	DEN	11
Tannehill	MIA	9.33			Riddick	DET	7.66
Bortles	JAC	8.66			Starks	GB	7
Rodgers	GB	8			Kelley	WAS	6.33
Brady	NE	7.33			Jennings	NYG	5.66

 

WR					TE
Jones/Sanu	ATL	25.66			Gates/Henry	SD	28.33
Crowder/Garcon/Jackson	WAS	25.33				CHI	27
Williams	SD	24.33			Clay	BUF	24.66
Thomas/Sanders	DEN	23			Witten	DAL	22.66
Cooper/Crabtree	OAK	21.66			Olsen	CAR	21.33
Kerley	SF	21.33			Fiedorowicz	HOU	20.66
Britt/Austin	LA	19.66			Tye	NYG	20.33
Jones/Tate	DET	19.66			Rudolph	MIN	19.66
Marshall/Enunwa	NYJ	18.66			Eifert	CIN	19
Diggs	MIN	18.66			Ebron	DET	18.66
Hill/Maclin	KC	18.33			Brate	TB	18.66
Beckham/Shepard	NYG	18			Barnidge	CLE	17.66
Meredith/Wilson	CHI	17			Kelce	KC	17.33
Evans	TB	16.33			Hooper	ATL	17
Baldwin	SEA	16.33			McDonald	SF	17
Edelman	NE	16.33			Kendricks	LA	17
Benjamin	CAR	16			Gresham	ARI	17
Matthews	PHI	16			Reed/Davis	WAS	14.66
Watkins	BUF	15.66			Doyle/Allen	IND	14.66
Landry/Parker	MIA	15.33			Ertz	PHI	14.33
Thomas/Cooks/Snead	NO	14.66			Green	PIT	14.33
Brown	PIT	13			Walford	OAK	14
Matthews	TEN	13				NYJ	14
Bryant/Beasley	DAL	12.66			Fleener	NO	13
Fitzgerald/Floyd	ARI	12.33			Thomas	JAC	12.66
Nelson/Adams/Cobb	GB	12			Cook	GB	12
Robinson/Hurns/Lee	JAC	11.66			Graham	SEA	11.33
Boyd/LaFell	CIN	11.33			Bennett	NE	9.66
Smith Sr./Wallace	BAL	11			Pitta	BAL	9.66
Hopkins	HOU	10.66				DEN	9.33
Pryor	CLE	10				MIA	9.33
Hilton/Moncrief	IND	9.66			Walker	TEN	7.33

 

D/ST
DEN	26
SEA	25
NE	24.33
NO	22.66
MIN	21.66
HOU	21.33
SF	21.33
CIN	20.66
WAS	20.66
SD	20.33
TEN	20
JAC	19.33
OAK	18.33
GB	17.66
CHI	16.33
ATL	15.33
CLE	15
ARI	15
LA	14
IND	13.33
KC	12.66
PIT	12.66
BUF	12
DAL	12
CAR	11.66
PHI	11.66
DET	11.33
MIA	11
NYJ	10.33
TB	9.66
BAL	6.66
NYG	6.33