Nine weeks into the 2026 season, the NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and every fantasy manager has a story about who was a steal and who was a bust. Instead of going on feel, we went back to FFA’s preseason season-long projections and measured every relevant player against them. The central question: Who is on pace to hit, miss, or blow past his preseason projection?
Methodology: The baseline is FFA’s weighted preseason season-long projection using full PPR and 6 points per passing TD. The pool is the top 24 projected QBs and TEs, the top 48 projected RBs and WRs, and every projected 2026 rookie: 177 players. Projected points per game (PPG) is the season projection divided by 17. Pace is points per team game multiplied by 17, so missed games count against a player. A player pacing at 110% of projection or better is surpassing it, 90 to under 110% is a hit, and under 90% is a miss. When a player’s per-game production is on track but missed games have dragged down his pace, we call it an availability issue rather than a projection miss. Stats run through Week 9 and come from nflverse.
Midseason By The Numbers
Group
n
Projection Full / Half
Actual
% of Half
Games
PPG
Proj PPG
QB Vets
24
355.1 / 177.5
152.4
86%
87%
20.37
20.89
RB Vets
46
204.8 / 102.4
91.7
90%
83%
12.48
12.05
RB Rookies
11
76.7 / 38.3
30.1
79%
68%
4.68
4.51
WR Vets
47
221.6 / 110.8
93.2
84%
84%
12.55
13.03
WR Rookies
17
100.0 / 50.0
47.4
95%
82%
6.96
5.88
TE Vets
24
172.2 / 86.1
85.7
99%
95%
10.68
10.13
TE Rookies
7
64.8 / 32.4
22.7
70%
66%
3.40
3.81
All Vets
141
230.4 / 115.2
101.5
88%
86%
13.54
13.55
All Rookies
36
89.2 / 44.6
36.1
81%
72%
5.44
5.25
All
177
201.7 / 100.9
88.2
87%
83%
11.89
11.87
At the halfway point, the average player in our pool should have 100.9 FPTS based on his season-long projection. He has 88.2, landing at 87% of the halfway mark. The reason may come one column over, showing players have suited up for just 83% of their team’s games. When they have played, they have produced 11.89 PPG against an 11.87 projection.
Veteran TEs have been the most accurate group in the pool, sitting at 99% of their halfway mark while playing 95% of their team’s games. Veteran QBs and WRs are the groups behind on both counts. QBs sit at 86% of their halfway mark, but take out Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Jaxson Dart and the rest of the group is at 93%. WRs are at 84% and just under half a point per game below. Rookie WRs have the largest per-game edge over projection. They have played just 82% of their team’s games and are still at 95% of their halfway mark, beating their projected PPG by more than a point (6.96 vs 5.88).
Hover a dot for details · Through Week 9 · Source: FFA, nflverse
Hover a dot for details · Through Week 9 · Source: FFA, nflverse
Hover a dot for details · Through Week 9 · Source: FFA, nflverse
Hover a dot for details · Through Week 9 · Source: FFA, nflverse
Rookie Report Card
Every year we break down the rookie class against our projections before the season, then grade those projections once it ends. Consider this the midseason checkpoint.
Hover a dot for details · Through Week 9 · Source: FFA, nflverse
WRs:
The rookie WR class has outrun expectations more than any group in the pool. Denzel Boston leads the way in Cleveland, averaging 11.41 PPG against a 7.65 projection while playing 91% of the offensive snaps. He has 32 catches on 60 targets and 3 TDs, a 21% target share, and is on pace for 194 FPTS against a 130 projection. KC Concepcion, his rookie teammate, is pacing slightly ahead of his own number at 9.82 PPG (8.88 proj).
Caleb Douglas has carried his Week 1 debut of 14.4 PPR points into the season. Projected outside our top 72 WRs for Week 1, he is averaging 12.12 PPG over five games played on 81% of the snaps, with a 22% target share in Miami. Omar Cooper Jr. has the highest per-game mark of the class at 15.65 PPG, though it has come in just four of the Jets’ nine games. Germie Bernard (9.54 PPG vs 5.65 proj) in Pittsburgh, Antonio Williams (7.55 vs 5.49) in Washington and Malachi Fields (6.72 vs 4.82) with the Giants round out a group of mid-round WRs who have all cleared 135% of their projected pace.
Not every rookie WR has a breakout story. Makai Lemon has been a near-perfect projection in Philadelphia, posting 8.19 PPG against an 8.65 projection on 79% of the snaps. Carnell Tate is right on his per-game mark in Tennessee (11.04 vs 10.76), with a 27% target share that leads all rookie WRs in the pool, but a missed game holds him at 90% of his projected pace. Jordyn Tyson’s hamstring injury from training camp put him on IR before Week 1 and cost him the Saints’ first seven games. He debuted in Week 9, catching 4/5 targets for 30 yards.
RBs:
The rookie RB story is about injuries at the top. Jeremiyah Love was projected for 249 FPTS, the most of any rookie, and has managed 8.90 PPG in six games around injuries to both ankles. A high ankle sprain suffered against Dallas has him on the IR and expected to miss four to five weeks, with Tyler Allgeier stepping in after a career-best 147 rushing yards in that game. Jadarian Price (6.30 PPG vs 11.59 proj) hurt his chest in Week 2 and missed four games on IR. He returned in Week 8 with Zach Charbonnet, splitting work and posting a season-high 11.8 FPTS against Arizona in Week 9.
Further down the board, fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman has been taking over in Denver with RJ Harvey on the IR. Projected for just 3.89 PPG, he has averaged 12.58 over five games with 3 TDs on 47 carries and 13 catches. Emmett Johnson has done well in Kansas City on a much smaller role, producing 7.60 PPG against a 3.09 projection on just 27% of the snaps.
TE and QB:
Eli Raridon has turned his Week 1 TD into a steady role in New England at 6.31 PPG against a 3.01 projection. Kenyon Sadiq has been on the field in every Jets game, but at 6.09 PPG (7.12 proj) and 45% of the snaps, he is pacing at 86% of his number.
Fernando Mendoza’s projection never got tested in the first half. The first overall pick’s only appearance came in relief of Kirk Cousins in a blowout loss to New England. That changed at the deadline with Las Vegas trading Cousins to Minnesota, and Mendoza makes his first career start Sunday against Seattle. With eight games left, this will be an interesting projection and team to watch.
Projection Smashes
Kenneth Walker III, 24.55 PPG (15.12 proj):
No player in the pool has beaten his projection by more than Walker. His Week 1 Chiefs debut (34.1 FPTS on 23 carries, 173 yards and 2 TDs) wasn’t a one-off. Through eight games he is RB2 with 159 carries, 26 catches and 11 total TDs. He is on pace for 417 FPTS against a 257 projection, a gap of +160.
Christian Watson, 19.66 PPG (11.59 proj):
Watson’s 147 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 also turned out to be a preview. He has played in all nine Packers games and is currently WR3, catching 49/74 targets with 7 TDs on a 23% target share. That puts him on a 334 FPTS pace against a 197 projection, the largest percentage beat of any healthy veteran WR (170%).
Chuba Hubbard and Jaylen Warren:
Two RBs projected outside the top 24 have played like RB1s. Hubbard has scored 146.6 FPTS, averaging 18.33 PPG on 80% of Carolina’s snaps, with 134 carries, 26 catches and 7 TDs. That puts him on pace for 312 FPTS, or 177% of his 176-point projection. Warren has scored 140.8 FPTS on 72% of Pittsburgh’s snaps, averaging 17.60 PPG against an 11.06 projection. That puts him on pace for 299 FPTS, or 159% of his preseason total.
Joe Burrow, 30.64 PPG (22.65 proj):
Burrow leads all QBs in per-game scoring. He has 23 passing TDs in eight games and is on pace for 521 FPTS, 136 above his projection. Tee Higgins (19.98 PPG vs 13.06 proj) has been the biggest beneficiary, pacing at 153% of his projection. Ja’Marr Chase (19.96 PPG vs 19.71 proj) is the most accurate projection of any top-12 WR.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (25.78 PPG, 36% target share), CeeDee Lamb (22.42 PPG, 34% target share), Isaiah Likely (16.10 PPG vs 9.65 proj) and C.J. Stroud (24.51 PPG vs 18.53 proj) round out the healthy players pacing more than 100 points above their projection.
Projection Hits
Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty and Bijan Robinson:
Among the top 12 projected RBs, these three have tracked their projections the closest. Henry is averaging 15.81 PPG against a 15.53 projection, pacing at 102% of his number with 175 carries and 9 TDs. Jeanty sits at 15.48 PPG against a 15.94 projection and Bijan at 20.00 against 20.71, both pacing at 97%. All three have played every game, and all three are where the projections said they would be.
Jonathan Taylor, 17.07 PPG (18.00 proj):
Taylor is pacing at 95% of his projection with 161 carries and 8 TDs. He stays in Indianapolis after the Colts reportedly turned down multiple offers, while Josh Downs went to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco. The remaining healthy Colts WRs have combined for just 375 receiving yards this season, but Taylor’s recent workload also deserves attention. He played 62% of the snaps in Week 8 and 69% in Week 9, scoring just 6.7 and 9.4 FPTS as trade speculation surrounded him. With Indianapolis at 2-7 and the deadline behind them, it will be interesting to see whether the Colts restore Taylor’s heavy workload or continue giving rookie Seth McGowan a larger share down the stretch.
Harold Fannin and Tucker Kraft:
Last year’s breakout rookie TE has settled into his projection. Fannin is up to 11.37 PPG against an 11.71 projection on 86% of Cleveland’s snaps. Over the past three weeks, Fannin has posted 18 catches on 23 targets for 287 yards and a TD. Kraft is pacing at 98% of his projection in Green Bay at 10.04 PPG.
Projection Misses
These players have been available for every game or all but one, so misses can’t be pinned on injuries alone.
Justin Herbert, 11.58 PPG (21.18 proj):
Herbert is the largest miss in the pool. The Chargers are 0-8 and he has 6 passing TDs in eight games. He is on pace for 197 FPTS against a 360 projection, a gap of −163.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr.:
Two WRs with 190+ FPTS projections are both pacing at roughly 40% of them. Thomas has caught 10/21 targets in seven games and has played just 43% of the snaps during Jacksonville’s 6-2 start. Harrison has caught 11/24 targets in seven games between Arizona and Houston. Both are averaging under 5.5 PPG against projections above 11.
Omarion Hampton, 8.52 PPG (15.24 proj):
Hampton is another Charger killing fantasy managers. He has played all eight games, but just 44% of the snaps with a 5% target share. His 102 carries and 13 targets have him pacing at 56% of his projection, the largest miss of any healthy RB.
Justin Jefferson, 13.60 PPG (16.12 proj):
Jefferson is pacing at 74% of his projection with a healthy 29% target share. The issue has been QB play. Since 2022 with Kirk Cousins, Jefferson averaged 2.73 yards per route run. This season he is at 2.16. Minnesota’s deadline trade for Cousins makes him a strong second-half rebound candidate.
Courtland Sutton (7.07 PPG vs 12.06 proj), Chris Godwin (6.43 vs 11.18) and Quentin Johnston (6.54 vs 9.94) are all pacing below 60% of projection despite playing at least 78% of the snaps. Bo Nix (16.98 vs 21.24) and Chase Brown (12.68 vs 16.41) round out the healthy misses.
Availability, Not Accuracy
A second group shows why per-game production and pace have to be read together. Breece Hall (13.55 PPG vs 14.29 proj), Caleb Williams (21.06 vs 21.59), Jayden Daniels (21.53 vs 22.06), DeVonta Smith (17.25 vs 13.82) and Nico Collins (15.27 vs 14.65) are all producing near or above their projected rate when active. Missed games have them pacing between 42% and 78% of their season totals.
Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jaxson Dart, De’Von Achane and A.J. Brown have each played five or fewer games. Puka Nacua is pacing at 97% of his projection (24.80 PPG), but sprained MCL and PCL ligaments are expected to keep him out at least a month.
Deadline Shifts
The deadline moved four fantasy-relevant players, each changing something for the second half. Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota after starting nine games for the 4-5 Raiders. He reunites with Kevin O’Connell while Kyler Murray recovers from a hamstring strain, giving Justin Jefferson his former QB back for the stretch run. Josh Downs goes from Indianapolis to Kansas City, moving from the league’s 31st-ranked offense in EPA per dropback to 8th. Keenan Allen joins an injury-hit 49ers WR room. Jacoby Brissett went from Arizona to Baltimore and is expected to start Monday against the Chargers with Lamar on IR after thumb surgery.
Arizona is an offense to downgrade. Harrison has been gone since October, Love is out for multiple weeks on the IR, while Michael Wilson and Gardner Minshew are both out for the season. With Brissett traded to Baltimore, the door opens for third-round rookie Carson Beck to make his first start Sunday at home against the Rams. Trey McBride (18.09 PPG vs 15.18 proj) is currently the top scoring fantasy TE, but the offense around him has thinned out fast.
