Why You Shouldn’t Overvalue QBs1
In your standard 12 team fantasy football PPR leagues many of you are going into your draft with the wrong strategy.
Quarterbacks consistently record the most points on a week to week basis, however the margin of point differential from the “top” quarterback to the “12th ranked” quarterback, is not as impactful as you may think. Drew Brees, who should always be the first quarterback off the board (coming from a die hard Packer fan), scored roughly 475 fantasy points (depending on your scoring system). The 12th ranked Quarterback (Josh Freeman) scored roughly 330.
#1 Drew Brees: 475 points
#12 Josh Freeman: 330 points
Difference: ~9 pts/week
At first glance, it seems like a big difference, however if you’re starting Josh Freeman – you should have an elite WR (Calvin, Dez, AJ Green, Julio, Marshall) and RB (AP, Foster, Mccoy, Rice, Doug Martin).
Here is my point: Most leagues you start 3 WR, 2 RB and possibly a flex (RB/WR/TE). Given your leagues starting positions, the differential in points on a head to head position battle the (WR, RB, and TE) matchups are what wins your leagues.
The #1 WR (Calvin) scored approximately 330 points versus the 36th ranked receiver (Denarious Moore) who scored 160 points. Which comes out to about a 11 pts/week differential .
#1 Calvin Johnson: 330 points
#36 Denarious Moore: 160 points
Difference: ~11 pts/week
Compare these two positional breakdowns (below). Notice how slowly QBs degrade as opposed to WRs:
Running backs (AP) led the way with roughly 340 points compared to 24th ranked McFadden with 140 points which is approximately 12.5 pts/week.
#1 Adrian Peterson: 340 points
#24 Darren McFadden: 140 points
Difference: ~12.5 pts/week
Draftees, finally, DO NOT SLEEP on the top TE’s (Graham, Gronkowski). This is where you can really make up a lot of ground in a head to head league. Jimmy Graham (Gronkowski was hurt majority of the year) scored 230 pts versus 12th ranked Martellus Bennett’s 130 points – which is around 6 pts/week. Graham and Gronkowski statistically are comparable to WR2’s. These two guys will win you your league and SHOULD BE DRAFTED BEFORE ANY QB IS OFF THE BOARD.
#1 Jimmy Graham: 230 points
#12 Martellus Bennet: 130 points
Difference: ~6 pts/week
My goal is to get you to realize why you should not press the panic button when you do not have a quarterback through the first 5-6 rounds of your draft. As you can see, the weekly point differential is apparent that stacking up on WR’s or RB’s early in your draft will lead you to a championship. You can draft a Stafford who had a terrible season (350pts, 7pt differential), Romo(380pts, 6 pt differential), Luck(355pts, 6 pt differential), RGIII(380pts, 6 pt differential) in your mid to later rounds of your draft. Stack up on your WR’s( Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace) and RB (Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Daren Sproles, Ridley, Steven Jackson) in your 2-6 rounds.
Use this weekly point differential as your strategy.
Don’t even hesitate to get some bench players before you draft a QB so you can have some trade bait for a QB down the line in your season. Again ignore drafting a quarterback until your mid rounds of your draft and I promise this will lead you to your league crown.
Brandan is good…but I may be better. I’m in the Appleton, WI league every year with Brandan and Chad Wittman (#VOSS). I believe Chad used this app to analyze the draft results this year and I took home the number 1 spot. I’m in the top tier of the league in projected points on a weekly basis and will take home the league this year @chadwittman #knowledge.