Week 11 WRs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about WR’s value (PPR) for Week 11. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players. We post this and more at https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net[1]
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 25.1 | 5.9 |
| Brandon Marshall | 22.4 | 5.2 |
| Vincent Jackson | 22.0 | 4.7 |
| Eric Decker | 15.7 | 4.7 |
| Percy Harvin | 10.1 | 4.7 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 12.6 | 4.5 |
| Doug Baldwin | 10.1 | 4.4 |
| Josh Gordon | 16.3 | 4.3 |
| Andre Johnson | 23.0 | 4.2 |
| Mike Wallace | 13.1 | 4.1 |
| Donnie Avery | 9.0 | 4.1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 16.4 | 3.8 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 15.6 | 3.7 |
| Pierre Garcon | 21.0 | 3.5 |
| Rueben Randle | 11.4 | 3.5 |
| Mike Brown | 10.6 | 3.5 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 10.4 | 3.5 |
| Greg Jennings | 8.3 | 3.4 |
| Victor Cruz | 17.0 | 3.3 |
| Jordy Nelson | 16.4 | 3.3 |
| Harry Douglas | 16.1 | 3.3 |
| Marvin Jones | 9.9 | 3.3 |
| Marques Colston | 13.6 | 3.2 |
| Michael Floyd | 11.0 | 3.2 |
| James Jones | 8.7 | 3.1 |
| Kendall Wright | 15.3 | 3.0 |
| Brian Hartline | 11.4 | 2.9 |
| Greg Little | 8.6 | 2.9 |
| Golden Tate | 14.9 | 2.8 |
| Danny Amendola | 13.7 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Dobson | 10.4 | 2.8 |
| DeSean Jackson | 20.7 | 2.7 |
| Roddy White | 10.7 | 2.7 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 20.0 | 2.6 |
| Wes Welker | 18.6 | 2.6 |
| Stephen Hill | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 11.4 | 2.5 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 16.7 | 2.4 |
| Nate Washington | 7.7 | 2.4 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7.0 | 2.4 |
| Antonio Brown | 19.6 | 2.2 |
| Torrey Smith | 16.9 | 2.2 |
| Keenan Allen | 16.6 | 2.2 |
| Cecil Shorts | 13.1 | 2.2 |
| Lance Moore | 6.0 | 2.2 |
| Riley Cooper | 16.4 | 2.1 |
| Kenny Stills | 9.6 | 2.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 13.9 | 2.0 |
| Steve Smith | 12.1 | 2.0 |
| Kris Durham | 8.0 | 1.9 |
| Anquan Boldin | 11.3 | 1.8 |
| Jerome Simpson | 6.3 | 1.8 |
| Vincent Brown | 6.1 | 1.8 |
| Griff Whalen | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5.4 | 1.8 |
| Mario Manningham | 7.3 | 1.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 5.6 | 1.7 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 9.6 | 1.6 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 7.4 | 1.6 |
| T.J. Graham | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| Marlon Brown | 8.0 | 1.5 |
| Davone Bess | 6.7 | 1.4 |
| Julian Edelman | 5.0 | 1.4 |
| A.J. Green | 18.4 | 1.3 |
| Brandon LaFell | 8.6 | 1.3 |
| Eddie Royal | 7.6 | 1.3 |
| Jason Avant | 5.4 | 1.3 |
| Denarius Moore | 11.7 | 1.1 |
| Rod Streater | 7.3 | 1.0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 7.3 | 0.8 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 6.6 | 0.8 |
| Santana Moss | 4.7 | 0.8 |
Additional Details:
| Player | Min | Floor ↓ | Average | Ceiling | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 19.0 | 19.2 | 25.1 | 31.0 | 36.0 |
| Andre Johnson | 18.0 | 18.8 | 23.0 | 27.2 | 31.0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 16.0 | 18.0 | 20.7 | 23.4 | 24.0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 16.0 | 17.5 | 21.0 | 24.5 | 26.0 |
| Antonio Brown | 16.0 | 17.4 | 19.6 | 21.8 | 23.0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 17.0 | 17.4 | 20.0 | 22.6 | 24.0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 16.0 | 17.3 | 22.0 | 26.7 | 31.0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 17.0 | 17.2 | 22.4 | 27.6 | 33.0 |
| A.J. Green | 17.0 | 17.1 | 18.4 | 19.7 | 20.0 |
| Wes Welker | 15.0 | 16.0 | 18.6 | 21.2 | 23.0 |
| Torrey Smith | 14.0 | 14.7 | 16.9 | 19.1 | 19.0 |
| Keenan Allen | 15.0 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 18.8 | 21.0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 14.0 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 19.1 | 20.0 |
| Riley Cooper | 12.0 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 18.5 | 18.0 |
| Victor Cruz | 13.0 | 13.7 | 17.0 | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 10.0 | 13.1 | 16.4 | 19.7 | 19.0 |
| Harry Douglas | 13.0 | 12.8 | 16.1 | 19.4 | 22.0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 11.0 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 20.2 | 20.0 |
| Kendall Wright | 11.0 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 19.0 |
| Golden Tate | 11.0 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 17.7 | 20.0 |
| Josh Gordon | 8.0 | 12.0 | 16.3 | 20.6 | 20.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 12.0 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 15.9 | 16.0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 10.0 | 11.9 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 19.0 |
| Eric Decker | 9.0 | 11.0 | 15.7 | 20.4 | 23.0 |
| Danny Amendola | 10.0 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 11.0 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 16.0 |
| Denarius Moore | 10.0 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Marques Colston | 9.0 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 19.0 |
| Steve Smith | 10.0 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 14.1 | 15.0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 9.0 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Mike Wallace | 6.0 | 9.0 | 13.1 | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 7.0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 13.9 | 14.0 |
| Brian Hartline | 8.0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 17.0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 5.0 | 8.1 | 12.6 | 17.1 | 18.0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 12.0 |
| Roddy White | 8.0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 13.4 | 15.0 |
| Rueben Randle | 7.0 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 17.0 |
| Michael Floyd | 6.0 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 16.0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 6.0 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 15.0 |
| Kenny Stills | 6.0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 7.0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| Mike Brown | 5.0 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 15.0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5.0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 15.0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4.0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Marlon Brown | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 6.0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| Eddie Royal | 6.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Rod Streater | 6.0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Kris Durham | 5.0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5.0 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4.0 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 16.0 |
| Greg Little | 4.0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| James Jones | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5.0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4.0 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 14.8 | 16.0 |
| Nate Washington | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| Davone Bess | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| Stephen Hill | 5.0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 12.0 |
| Donnie Avery | 6.0 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 13.1 | 18.0 |
| Greg Jennings | 5.0 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 15.0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4.0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4.0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| Vincent Brown | 5.0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 10.0 |
| Griff Whalen | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 9.0 |
| Jason Avant | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 8.0 |
| Santana Moss | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2.0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| Lance Moore | 2.0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| T.J. Graham | 3.0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2.0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 7.0 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
Share
