Week 10 RBs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for RBs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about RB’s value (PPR) for Week 9. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players. We post this and more at https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25.30 | 5.70 |
| Rashad Jennings | 13.30 | 4.60 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 15.10 | 4.50 |
| Matt Forte | 21.60 | 3.70 |
| Steven Jackson | 12.70 | 3.70 |
| Mike James | 13.90 | 3.60 |
| Trent Richardson | 10.60 | 3.60 |
| Donald Brown | 9.30 | 3.50 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13.70 | 3.50 |
| Andre Brown | 7.90 | 3.40 |
| Pierre Thomas | 15.30 | 3.40 |
| Joique Bell | 8.30 | 3.30 |
| DeMarco Murray | 15.90 | 3.20 |
| Zac Stacy | 18.10 | 3.00 |
| Mike Tolbert | 6.00 | 2.90 |
| Andre Ellington | 12.60 | 2.80 |
| Chris Johnson | 19.40 | 2.80 |
| Frank Gore | 13.70 | 2.80 |
| Peyton Hillis | 8.00 | 2.80 |
| Lamar Miller | 12.40 | 2.60 |
| Ryan Mathews | 8.90 | 2.50 |
| C.J. Spiller | 12.00 | 2.40 |
| Danny Woodhead | 16.30 | 2.40 |
| LeSean McCoy | 20.30 | 2.40 |
| Ray Rice | 11.60 | 2.40 |
| Reggie Bush | 20.70 | 2.40 |
| Fred Jackson | 15.10 | 2.30 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 17.60 | 2.20 |
| Montee Ball | 4.00 | 2.10 |
| Alfred Morris | 14.70 | 2.00 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7.10 | 1.90 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 18.40 | 1.90 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 14.60 | 1.90 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7.70 | 1.80 |
| Shonn Greene | 9.30 | 1.80 |
| Daniel Thomas | 6.10 | 1.70 |
| James Starks | 6.40 | 1.70 |
| Mark Ingram | 2.40 | 1.70 |
| Eddie Lacy | 18.90 | 1.60 |
| Ben Tate | 10.40 | 1.50 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4.40 | 1.50 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 4.90 | 1.50 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4.00 | 1.30 |
| Michael Bush | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4.10 | 1.10 |
| Roy Helu | 5.10 | 0.90 |
Additional Details:
| Name | Min | Floor ↓ | Avg | Ceiling | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 19.6 | 25.3 | 31 | 34 |
| Rashad Jennings | 7 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 17.9 | 20 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 7 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 19.6 | 21 |
| Matt Forte | 18 | 17.9 | 21.6 | 25.3 | 29 |
| Steven Jackson | 7 | 9 | 12.7 | 16.4 | 18 |
| Mike James | 10 | 10.3 | 13.9 | 17.5 | 19 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 7 | 10.6 | 14.2 | 16 |
| Donald Brown | 7 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 17 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 10.2 | 13.7 | 17.2 | 20 |
| Andre Brown | 1 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 10 |
| Pierre Thomas | 12 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 18.7 | 21 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 5 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 10 |
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 12.7 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 21 |
| Zac Stacy | 15 | 15.1 | 18.1 | 21.1 | 22 |
| Mike Tolbert | 2 | 3.1 | 6 | 8.9 | 10 |
| Andre Ellington | 9 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 15.4 | 18 |
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 16.6 | 19.4 | 22.2 | 23 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 16.5 | 18 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 5.2 | 8 | 10.8 | 11 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 15 | 17 |
| Ryan Mathews | 6 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 13 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9 | 9.6 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 |
| Danny Woodhead | 15 | 13.9 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 21 |
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 17.9 | 20.3 | 22.7 | 24 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 14 | 15 |
| Reggie Bush | 18 | 18.3 | 20.7 | 23.1 | 24 |
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 19 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 15.4 | 17.6 | 19.8 | 20 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 1.9 | 4 | 6.1 | 8 |
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 17 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 9 | 10 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 16.5 | 18.4 | 20.3 | 21 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 16.5 | 18 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 10 |
| Shonn Greene | 7 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 12 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 8 |
| James Starks | 4 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 9 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 6 |
| Eddie Lacy | 16 | 17.3 | 18.9 | 20.5 | 20 |
| Ben Tate | 8 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 12 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 7 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 2.7 | 4 | 5.3 | 6 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 0.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 6 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 6 | 6 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
