Week 10 WRs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about WR’s value (PPR) for Week 10. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players. We post this and more at https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net[1]
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Pettis | 8.3 | 5.3 |
| Calvin Johnson | 26.6 | 5.2 |
| Michael Floyd | 12.0 | 5.0 |
| Lance Moore | 13.1 | 4.4 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 9.0 | 4.3 |
| Greg Jennings | 13.9 | 4.2 |
| Steve Johnson | 13.4 | 3.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 14.3 | 3.8 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 13.6 | 3.5 |
| Terrance Williams | 14.1 | 3.5 |
| Andre Johnson | 21.4 | 3.4 |
| Golden Tate | 15.6 | 3.4 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 17.6 | 3.4 |
| Eddie Royal | 10.0 | 3.3 |
| Vincent Jackson | 20.1 | 3.3 |
| Jerome Simpson | 7.4 | 3.2 |
| Mike Wallace | 15.4 | 3.2 |
| Vincent Brown | 8.0 | 3.2 |
| James Jones | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 19.7 | 3.1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 15.1 | 3.0 |
| Marvin Jones | 14.3 | 2.9 |
| Dez Bryant | 21.9 | 2.8 |
| Doug Baldwin | 10.6 | 2.8 |
| Marlon Brown | 9.7 | 2.8 |
| Rueben Randle | 10.6 | 2.8 |
| Torrey Smith | 16.6 | 2.8 |
| Keenan Allen | 21.1 | 2.7 |
| Brandon Marshall | 21.7 | 2.6 |
| A.J. Green | 21.3 | 2.4 |
| Denarius Moore | 16.3 | 2.4 |
| DeSean Jackson | 19.7 | 2.4 |
| Jordy Nelson | 18.0 | 2.4 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 9.0 | 2.4 |
| Tavon Austin | 5.0 | 2.4 |
| Cecil Shorts | 15.9 | 2.3 |
| Jason Avant | 4.9 | 2.3 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 7.7 | 2.3 |
| Kenny Stills | 12.6 | 2.3 |
| Mike Brown | 10.6 | 2.3 |
| Kendall Wright | 14.4 | 2.2 |
| Rod Streater | 9.4 | 2.2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 19.1 | 2.2 |
| Ace Sanders | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Riley Cooper | 14.7 | 2.1 |
| Steve Smith | 10.6 | 2.1 |
| Antonio Brown | 19.4 | 2.0 |
| Kris Durham | 9.1 | 2.0 |
| Victor Cruz | 19.7 | 2.0 |
| Nate Washington | 9.4 | 1.9 |
| Mario Manningham | 5.0 | 1.8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5.4 | 1.7 |
| Eric Decker | 17.6 | 1.7 |
| Brandon LaFell | 8.3 | 1.6 |
| Chris Givens | 8.6 | 1.6 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 6.6 | 1.6 |
| Wes Welker | 19.7 | 1.6 |
| Anquan Boldin | 11.4 | 1.5 |
| Harry Douglas | 11.6 | 1.4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 20.6 | 1.3 |
| Andre Roberts | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| Brian Hartline | 10.4 | 1.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.3 | 1.1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 6.6 | 1.1 |
Additional Details:
| Player | Floor | Average | Ceiling | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 21.4 | 26.6 | 31.8 | 21 | 37 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 19.3 | 20.6 | 21.9 | 18 | 22 |
| Dez Bryant | 19.1 | 21.9 | 24.7 | 18 | 25 |
| Brandon Marshall | 19.1 | 21.7 | 24.3 | 17 | 25 |
| A.J. Green | 18.9 | 21.3 | 23.7 | 17 | 24 |
| Keenan Allen | 18.4 | 21.1 | 23.8 | 17 | 25 |
| Wes Welker | 18.1 | 19.7 | 21.3 | 18 | 22 |
| Andre Johnson | 18 | 21.4 | 24.8 | 17 | 26 |
| Victor Cruz | 17.7 | 19.7 | 21.7 | 17 | 22 |
| Antonio Brown | 17.4 | 19.4 | 21.4 | 17 | 22 |
| DeSean Jackson | 17.3 | 19.7 | 22.1 | 16 | 23 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 16.9 | 19.1 | 21.3 | 16 | 22 |
| Vincent Jackson | 16.8 | 20.1 | 23.4 | 16 | 26 |
| Pierre Garcon | 16.6 | 19.7 | 22.8 | 17 | 26 |
| Eric Decker | 15.9 | 17.6 | 19.3 | 15 | 20 |
| Jordy Nelson | 15.6 | 18.0 | 20.4 | 14 | 21 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 14.2 | 17.6 | 21.0 | 13 | 22 |
| Denarius Moore | 13.9 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 14 | 20 |
| Torrey Smith | 13.8 | 16.6 | 19.4 | 13 | 20 |
| Cecil Shorts | 13.6 | 15.9 | 18.2 | 13 | 20 |
| Riley Cooper | 12.6 | 14.7 | 16.8 | 11 | 18 |
| Golden Tate | 12.2 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 12 | 20 |
| Mike Wallace | 12.2 | 15.4 | 18.6 | 12 | 19 |
| Kendall Wright | 12.2 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 11 | 18 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 12.1 | 15.1 | 18.1 | 11 | 20 |
| Marvin Jones | 11.4 | 14.3 | 17.2 | 10 | 18 |
| Terrance Williams | 10.6 | 14.1 | 17.6 | 7 | 18 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10.5 | 14.3 | 18.1 | 10 | 21 |
| Kenny Stills | 10.3 | 12.6 | 14.9 | 10 | 16 |
| Harry Douglas | 10.2 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 9 | 13 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 10.1 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 8 | 17 |
| Anquan Boldin | 9.9 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 10 | 13 |
| Greg Jennings | 9.7 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 9 | 19 |
| Steve Johnson | 9.5 | 13.4 | 17.3 | 6 | 18 |
| Brian Hartline | 9.3 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 9 | 12 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.2 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 9 | 12 |
| Lance Moore | 8.7 | 13.1 | 17.5 | 6 | 19 |
| Steve Smith | 8.5 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 8 | 14 |
| Mike Brown | 8.3 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7 | 14 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7.8 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 7 | 16 |
| Rueben Randle | 7.8 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 6 | 15 |
| Nate Washington | 7.5 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 7 | 12 |
| Rod Streater | 7.2 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 6 | 12 |
| Kris Durham | 7.1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6 | 11 |
| Michael Floyd | 7.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 6 | 21 |
| Chris Givens | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 7 | 11 |
| Marlon Brown | 6.9 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 4 | 12 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6.7 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 6 | 10 |
| Eddie Royal | 6.7 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 6 | 15 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 6.6 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7 | 14 |
| James Jones | 6.3 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 4 | 13 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 5 | 8 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 5.4 | 7.7 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 4 | 8 |
| Vincent Brown | 4.8 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 4 | 12 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4.7 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 4 | 15 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4.2 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 4 | 13 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 3 | 7 |
| Mario Manningham | 3.2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 3 | 8 |
| Andre Roberts | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3 | 6 |
| Austin Pettis | 3 | 8.3 | 13.6 | 4 | 20 |
| Jason Avant | 2.6 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 2 | 9 |
| Tavon Austin | 2.6 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 3 | 10 |
| Ace Sanders | 2.2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 2 | 8 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
