Week 9 RBs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about RB’s value (PPR) for Week 9. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players.
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20.4 | 6.0 |
| Arian Foster | 14.4 | 5.8 |
| Zac Stacy | 13.0 | 4.9 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 19.4 | 4.8 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13.9 | 3.9 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 14.3 | 3.9 |
| Matt Forte | 19.1 | 3.8 |
| Jamaal Charles | 24.0 | 3.7 |
| Trent Richardson | 9.3 | 3.5 |
| Chris Ivory | 7.1 | 3.3 |
| Chris Johnson | 15.3 | 3.3 |
| Pierre Thomas | 12.9 | 2.9 |
| Steven Jackson | 8.9 | 2.9 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7.6 | 2.8 |
| Fred Jackson | 15.7 | 2.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 19.7 | 2.6 |
| Alfred Morris | 14.0 | 2.5 |
| Darren Sproles | 10.9 | 2.3 |
| Ray Rice | 17.3 | 2.3 |
| Stevan Ridley | 13.1 | 2.2 |
| DeMarco Murray | 15.6 | 2.1 |
| Donald Brown | 7.3 | 2.1 |
| James Starks | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Bilal Powell | 9.4 | 2.0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 7.4 | 2.0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 17.1 | 2.0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 12.9 | 2.0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| Darren McFadden | 15.4 | 1.9 |
| Daryl Richardson | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Mike Tolbert | 12.0 | 1.8 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 9.9 | 1.7 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8.0 | 1.7 |
| Tashard Choice | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Willis McGahee | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| Roy Helu | 6.7 | 1.5 |
| Mike James | 9.0 | 1.4 |
| Eddie Lacy | 18.4 | 1.3 |
| Robert Turbin | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 6.6 | 1.1 |
| Lamar Miller | 8.3 | 1.1 |
Additional Details:
| Name | Floor | Avg | Ceiling | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 20.3 | 24.0 | 27.7 | 19 | 31 |
| LeSean McCoy | 17.1 | 19.7 | 22.3 | 16 | 23 |
| Eddie Lacy | 17.1 | 18.4 | 19.7 | 16 | 20 |
| Matt Forte | 15.3 | 19.1 | 22.9 | 14 | 25 |
| Danny Woodhead | 15.1 | 17.1 | 19.1 | 13 | 19 |
| Ray Rice | 15.0 | 17.3 | 19.6 | 15 | 21 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 14.6 | 19.4 | 24.2 | 12 | 27 |
| Adrian Peterson | 14.4 | 20.4 | 26.4 | 17 | 34 |
| DeMarco Murray | 13.5 | 15.6 | 17.7 | 12 | 18 |
| Darren McFadden | 13.5 | 15.4 | 17.3 | 13 | 18 |
| Fred Jackson | 12.9 | 15.7 | 18.5 | 12 | 20 |
| Chris Johnson | 12.0 | 15.3 | 18.6 | 10 | 20 |
| Alfred Morris | 11.5 | 14.0 | 16.5 | 10 | 18 |
| Ryan Mathews | 10.9 | 12.9 | 14.9 | 9 | 15 |
| Stevan Ridley | 10.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 10 | 16 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 10.4 | 14.3 | 18.2 | 8 | 18 |
| Mike Tolbert | 10.2 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 10 | 15 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10.0 | 13.9 | 17.8 | 7 | 18 |
| Pierre Thomas | 10.0 | 12.9 | 15.8 | 10 | 17 |
| Arian Foster | 8.6 | 14.4 | 20.2 | 2 | 19 |
| Darren Sproles | 8.6 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 9 | 15 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 8.2 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 7 | 12 |
| Zac Stacy | 8.1 | 13.0 | 17.9 | 3 | 19 |
| Mike James | 7.6 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 7 | 11 |
| Bilal Powell | 7.4 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 8 | 13 |
| Lamar Miller | 7.2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7 | 10 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6.3 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 6 | 10 |
| Steven Jackson | 6.0 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 4 | 13 |
| Trent Richardson | 5.8 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 5 | 15 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 5 | 8 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5.4 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5 | 10 |
| Roy Helu | 5.2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5 | 9 |
| Donald Brown | 5.2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 5 | 11 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4.8 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 3 | 10 |
| Chris Ivory | 3.8 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 3 | 12 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3.5 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 3 | 8 |
| Willis McGahee | 2.5 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 2 | 7 |
| James Starks | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 1 | 7 |
| Daryl Richardson | 1.8 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 1 | 6 |
| Robert Turbin | 1.7 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 |
| Tashard Choice | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 0 | 5 |
| Rashad Jennings | -0.1 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 0 | 5 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
