Week 9 WRs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about WR’s value (PPR) for Week 9. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players.
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 11.4 | 6.3 |
| Kenny Stills | 11.3 | 4.6 |
| Torrey Smith | 15.6 | 4.4 |
| Pierre Garcon | 18.4 | 3.9 |
| Antonio Brown | 17.7 | 3.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11.4 | 3.5 |
| Lance Moore | 8.7 | 3.5 |
| Nate Washington | 14.0 | 3.4 |
| Andre Johnson | 17.7 | 3.3 |
| Brian Hartline | 12.1 | 3.3 |
| Marvin Jones | 12.6 | 3.3 |
| DeSean Jackson | 18.9 | 3.2 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 11.1 | 3.2 |
| Kendall Wright | 15.4 | 3.2 |
| Aaron Dobson | 8.9 | 3.1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 12.4 | 3.1 |
| Steve Johnson | 12.9 | 3.1 |
| Marlon Brown | 8.7 | 3.0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 16.9 | 3.0 |
| Chris Givens | 8.3 | 2.9 |
| Dez Bryant | 23.3 | 2.9 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6.4 | 2.8 |
| Danny Amendola | 11.3 | 2.8 |
| Denarius Moore | 18.4 | 2.8 |
| Drew Davis | 8.3 | 2.8 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 13.6 | 2.8 |
| Keenan Allen | 17.9 | 2.8 |
| Golden Tate | 14.1 | 2.7 |
| Brandon Marshall | 19.6 | 2.6 |
| Jerome Simpson | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| Vincent Brown | 9.4 | 2.6 |
| Tavon Austin | 7.0 | 2.5 |
| Vincent Jackson | 14.9 | 2.5 |
| Donnie Avery | 8.3 | 2.4 |
| Eddie Royal | 7.7 | 2.4 |
| Jordy Nelson | 22.4 | 2.4 |
| Mike Wallace | 12.1 | 2.4 |
| Riley Cooper | 8.6 | 2.4 |
| Austin Pettis | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| Josh Gordon | 18.7 | 2.3 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 16.7 | 2.1 |
| Steve Smith | 16.1 | 2.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11.7 | 2.0 |
| Harry Douglas | 17.9 | 2.0 |
| Julian Edelman | 6.1 | 1.9 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 6.3 | 1.8 |
| Terrance Williams | 16.6 | 1.8 |
| Brandon LaFell | 7.9 | 1.6 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6.3 | 1.6 |
| Greg Little | 5.9 | 1.6 |
| Jason Avant | 7.1 | 1.6 |
| A.J. Green | 20.3 | 1.5 |
| Robert Woods | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| Rod Streater | 9.0 | 1.5 |
| Santana Moss | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 6.4 | 1.3 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| T.J. Graham | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Stephen Hill | 7.9 | 1.2 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 9.7 | 1.1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 6.6 | 1.0 |
Additional Details:
| Name | Floor ↓ | Avg | Ceiling | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 20.4 | 23.3 | 26.2 | 20 | 28 |
| Jordy Nelson | 20.0 | 22.4 | 24.8 | 18 | 25 |
| A.J. Green | 18.8 | 20.3 | 21.8 | 18 | 22 |
| Brandon Marshall | 17.0 | 19.6 | 22.2 | 15 | 23 |
| Josh Gordon | 16.4 | 18.7 | 21.0 | 16 | 22 |
| Harry Douglas | 15.9 | 17.9 | 19.9 | 15 | 21 |
| DeSean Jackson | 15.7 | 18.9 | 22.1 | 15 | 22 |
| Denarius Moore | 15.6 | 18.4 | 21.2 | 14 | 22 |
| Keenan Allen | 15.1 | 17.9 | 20.7 | 15 | 22 |
| Terrance Williams | 14.8 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 13 | 18 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 14.6 | 16.7 | 18.8 | 14 | 19 |
| Pierre Garcon | 14.5 | 18.4 | 22.3 | 12 | 24 |
| Andre Johnson | 14.4 | 17.7 | 21.0 | 14 | 23 |
| Antonio Brown | 14.2 | 17.7 | 21.2 | 13 | 23 |
| Steve Smith | 14.0 | 16.1 | 18.2 | 14 | 20 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 13.9 | 16.9 | 19.9 | 14 | 22 |
| Vincent Jackson | 12.4 | 14.9 | 17.4 | 12 | 18 |
| Kendall Wright | 12.2 | 15.4 | 18.6 | 10 | 19 |
| Golden Tate | 11.4 | 14.1 | 16.8 | 11 | 18 |
| Torrey Smith | 11.2 | 15.6 | 20.0 | 12 | 24 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 10.8 | 13.6 | 16.4 | 10 | 18 |
| Nate Washington | 10.6 | 14.0 | 17.4 | 10 | 19 |
| Steve Johnson | 9.8 | 12.9 | 16.0 | 8 | 17 |
| Mike Wallace | 9.7 | 12.1 | 14.5 | 8 | 15 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9.7 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 9 | 14 |
| Marvin Jones | 9.3 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 7 | 18 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 9.3 | 12.4 | 15.5 | 7 | 16 |
| Brian Hartline | 8.8 | 12.1 | 15.4 | 9 | 19 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 8.6 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 8 | 11 |
| Danny Amendola | 8.5 | 11.3 | 14.1 | 7 | 14 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7.9 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 8 | 18 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 7.9 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 7 | 15 |
| Rod Streater | 7.5 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 7 | 11 |
| Vincent Brown | 6.8 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 6 | 13 |
| Kenny Stills | 6.7 | 11.3 | 15.9 | 5 | 16 |
| Stephen Hill | 6.7 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 6 | 10 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6.3 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 6 | 10 |
| Riley Cooper | 6.2 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 6 | 13 |
| Donnie Avery | 5.9 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6 | 13 |
| Aaron Dobson | 5.8 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 5 | 14 |
| Marlon Brown | 5.7 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 5 | 12 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5 | 8 |
| Drew Davis | 5.5 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 4 | 12 |
| Jason Avant | 5.5 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5 | 9 |
| Chris Givens | 5.4 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 5 | 13 |
| Eddie Royal | 5.3 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6 | 13 |
| Lance Moore | 5.2 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 4 | 14 |
| Greg Jennings | 5.1 | 11.4 | 17.7 | 6 | 25 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 5 | 8 |
| Jerome Simpson | 5.1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 5 | 12 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4.7 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4 | 8 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4 | 7 |
| Tavon Austin | 4.5 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 3 | 11 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4.5 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 4 | 9 |
| Greg Little | 4.3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4 | 8 |
| Julian Edelman | 4.2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 3 | 8 |
| Robert Woods | 4.1 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4 | 8 |
| Santana Moss | 3.9 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3 | 7 |
| Austin Pettis | 3.7 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 2 | 9 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3.6 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 4 | 12 |
| T.J. Graham | 2.8 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 2 | 6 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2.6 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2 | 6 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
