Lucky & Unlucky WRs Through Week 8

I’ve been mulling around this idea for awhile and was hoping to get some feedback on the concept. I think it’s close but could use some refinements.

The idea is that some WRs are “luckier” than others. Luck is a strong component of the NFL. While it’s hard to put an exact number on luck in the NFL, from a win-loss perspective, it seems to range somewhere between 24%-52% [source]. If luck plays such a large part of a win or loss, luck must play an impact in individual performance.

Thought Process

WRs receive targets throughout a game. There are a wide variety of reasons that a target doesn’t result in a completion (drops, interceptions, poor throws, knockdowns, injuries, etc). My first approach was to analyze the average Catch Rate, look at the standard deviation for each WR – examine who was above/below 1 standard deviation from the average to determine which WRs have been “Unlucky” or “Lucky”.

Faulty Logic

I realized that this logic did not take into account the skill of a WR’s QB. Peyton Manning’s WRs had excellent Catch Rates, while Blaine Gabbert’s WRs had poor Catch Rates. This resulted in a bias for players with good/bad QBs.

New & Improved Logic

Each QB has an average Completion Rate. Each WR has an average Catch Rate. What if we examined how a WR’s avg Catch Rate compares to their QBs avg Completion Rate? Would this determine “luck”?

Unlucky WRs

Name	Catch Rate	QB Cmp %	CR – QB %	FPTS ↓
18-A.Green	54.8	65.6	-10.8	149.4
83-V.Jackson	45.6	58.6	-13.0	127.3
88-E.Sanders	54.4	66.2	-11.8	82.6
13-T.Hilton	50.9	61.1	-10.2	81.5
85-K.Thompkins	41.8	55.7	-13.9	80.4
11-M.Wallace	46.9	59.4	-12.5	75.8
10-R.Woods	42.3	58.5	-16.2	64.5
84-S.Hill	50.0	59.3	-9.3	63.0
13-C.Givens	48.9	60.7	-11.8	57.4
18-S.Rice	42.9	61.0	-18.1	56.1
18-G.Little	38.9	56.1	-17.2	48.8
81-D.Heyward-Bey	51.4	61.1	-9.7	43.0

Lucky WRs

Name	Catch Rate	QB Cmp %	CR – QB %	FPTS ↓
87-J.Nelson	72.2	67.1	5.1	145.9
10-D.Jackson	60.8	56.2	4.6	142.3
80-V.Cruz	61	55.7	5.3	138.7
84-A.Brown	76.7	66.2	10.5	131
11-J.Edelman	68.6	55.7	12.9	106.2
82-M.Jones	70.6	65.6	5	102.9
87-R.Wayne	66.1	61.1	5	101.8
13-K.Wright	69	57.2	11.8	89.3
10-B.Gibson	69.8	59.4	10.4	80.6
14-J.Blackmon	60.4	54.7	5.7	76.5
11-J.Kerley	65.9	59.3	6.6	73.6
89-D.Baldwin	76.7	61	15.7	66.2

Issues With New Logic / Feedback Please!

I still don’t think my model is quite there. I can’t seem to wrap my mind around how to change this. I would love to hear any feedback you may have.

How Do I Use This?

I focus most of my time analyzing WRs, as they tend to have the biggest upside for me (PPR). I recommend using this in a few ways:

#1 Use to identify “unlucky” WRs to try to trade for them, as theyshould bounce back to at least the average.

#2 Use to identify “lucky” WRs on your team, who you may want to try to trade before they fall back to the average.

#3 Pick up “unlucky” WRs on the waiver wire, wait until they return to the average for better performance.