Week 12 WRs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 9 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about WR’s value (PPR) for Week 12. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
The Top 20 Graph: http://imgur.com/LXeOwjx
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players.
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 24.1 | 5.5 |
| Kenny Stills | 10 | 5 |
| Wes Welker | 18.6 | 4.7 |
| Danny Amendola | 13.8 | 4.1 |
| Victor Cruz | 19.4 | 3.7 |
| Jordy Nelson | 19.2 | 3.7 |
| Kendall Wright | 16.2 | 3.7 |
| James Jones | 10.3 | 3.7 |
| Roddy White | 9.8 | 3.7 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 16.1 | 3.6 |
| Andre Johnson | 21.1 | 3.4 |
| Brandon Marshall | 20.9 | 3.4 |
| Marques Colston | 16.2 | 3.4 |
| Keenan Allen | 12.4 | 3.3 |
| Dez Bryant | 19.4 | 3.2 |
| Terrance Williams | 11 | 3.2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 10.7 | 3.1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 19.4 | 3 |
| Pierre Garcon | 16.7 | 3 |
| Josh Gordon | 16 | 3 |
| Julian Edelman | 6.7 | 3 |
| Torrey Smith | 16.6 | 2.9 |
| Vincent Jackson | 21.1 | 2.8 |
| Antonio Brown | 14.7 | 2.8 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 13.3 | 2.8 |
| Rod Streater | 10 | 2.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 2.8 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 16.2 | 2.7 |
| Nate Washington | 9.3 | 2.7 |
| Ace Sanders | 8 | 2.6 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 8 | 2.6 |
| Donnie Avery | 7.1 | 2.6 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 13.9 | 2.5 |
| Tavon Austin | 9.7 | 2.5 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 15.3 | 2.4 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 11.7 | 2.3 |
| Chris Givens | 9.9 | 2.3 |
| Mike Wallace | 9.6 | 2.2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 8.6 | 2.2 |
| Lance Moore | 6.9 | 2.2 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 5.3 | 2 |
| Denarius Moore | 8.7 | 1.9 |
| David Nelson | 6.2 | 1.9 |
| Rueben Randle | 13 | 1.8 |
| Steve Smith | 11.4 | 1.8 |
| Dexter McCluster | 7.3 | 1.8 |
| Santana Moss | 5.8 | 1.8 |
| Michael Floyd | 12.8 | 1.7 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 12.3 | 1.6 |
| Anquan Boldin | 11.4 | 1.6 |
| Brandon LaFell | 8.7 | 1.6 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5.4 | 1.4 |
| Brian Hartline | 9.7 | 1.3 |
| Andre Roberts | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| Davone Bess | 5.6 | 1.2 |
Additional Details:
| Player | Min | Floor ↓ | Average | Ceiling | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 19 | 18.6 | 24.1 | 29.6 | 38 |
| Vincent Jackson | 18 | 18.3 | 21.1 | 23.9 | 27 |
| Andre Johnson | 14 | 17.7 | 21.1 | 24.5 | 25 |
| Brandon Marshall | 14 | 17.5 | 20.9 | 24.3 | 25 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 16 | 16.4 | 19.4 | 22.4 | 25 |
| Dez Bryant | 15 | 16.2 | 19.4 | 22.6 | 24 |
| Victor Cruz | 14 | 15.7 | 19.4 | 23.1 | 24 |
| Jordy Nelson | 15 | 15.5 | 19.2 | 22.9 | 24 |
| Wes Welker | 9 | 13.9 | 18.6 | 23.3 | 24 |
| Torrey Smith | 13 | 13.7 | 16.6 | 19.5 | 22 |
| Pierre Garcon | 14 | 13.7 | 16.7 | 19.7 | 22 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 12 | 13.5 | 16.2 | 18.9 | 19 |
| Josh Gordon | 13 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 22 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 12 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 17.7 | 19 |
| Marques Colston | 11 | 12.8 | 16.2 | 19.6 | 22 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 12.5 | 16.1 | 19.7 | 20 |
| Kendall Wright | 10 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 19.9 | 22 |
| Antonio Brown | 12 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 17.5 | 20 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 9 | 11.4 | 13.9 | 16.4 | 17 |
| Rueben Randle | 11 | 11.2 | 13 | 14.8 | 16 |
| Michael Floyd | 10 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 16 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 9 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 13.9 | 14 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 11 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 16.1 | 19 |
| Anquan Boldin | 10 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 13 | 15 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 9.7 | 13.8 | 17.9 | 19 |
| Steve Smith | 9 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 15 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 8 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 14 | 15 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 15.7 | 17 |
| Brian Hartline | 7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11 | 11 |
| Terrance Williams | 7 | 7.8 | 11 | 14.2 | 18 |
| Chris Givens | 7 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 13 |
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 13.8 | 15 |
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 14 |
| Rod Streater | 8 | 7.2 | 10 | 12.8 | 15 |
| Tavon Austin | 7 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 14 |
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 11 |
| Denarius Moore | 5 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 11 |
| James Jones | 4 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 14 | 16 |
| Nate Washington | 5 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 12 | 13 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 11 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 6.2 | 9 | 11.8 | 12 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 14 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 11 |
| Ace Sanders | 4 | 5.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 4 | 5.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 18 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 11 |
| Donnie Avery | 4 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 12 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 8 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 9 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 4 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 10 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 8 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 7 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 14 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 8 |
Added 2 new sources Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks, Picking Pros, Fox Sports.
