Fantasy Playoff Blueprint

The fantasy football playoffs are upon us, and it’s time to focus on matchups and player situations that could make or break your championship hopes. This article highlights key players and teams with strong playoff potential, while also identifying cautionary starts. Including favorable schedules, situation outlooks, and our projections, FFA provides what you need to dominate your league in the final weeks of the season.

Strong Situations

Panthers (3-10):

The Panthers are 2-4 in their last six games, with each decided by an average of 4.5 points. Heading into the fantasy playoffs, they are coming off three close losses to the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bucs. They now face a more favorable schedule going forward.

Bryce Young delivered one of his best NFL performances in the last second loss to the Bucs. He completed 26/46 passes for 298 yards, adding 29 yards and a TD on the ground finishing QB8 with 25 fantasy points. The Bucs are allowing the most fantasy points to QBs this season and are on the Panthers’ schedule again in Week 17. Looking at the rest of the schedule, Dallas allows the fifth most fantasy points to QBs, while the Cardinals are middle of the pack at 18th.

The Panthers’ defense is also allowing the second most yards per game and the most points per game this season. If Bryce Young can continue his strong showings against weaker defenses, these matchups could turn into high-scoring affairs with plenty of fantasy value.

Adam Thielen has bounced back since returning with 57 yards against the Chiefs. In his last two games, the 34 year old has posted 201 yards, catching 17/21 targets and a TD. He finished as the WR9 in Week 13 with 23 PPR points against the Bucs, and added 19 points against the stout Eagles defense with no TD.

Chuba Hubbard has been a pleasant surprise for both Carolina and fantasy managers. With Jonathan Brooks suffering another season-ending injury last week, it is now Chuba’s backfield once again. He currently ranks sixth in the league in rushing yards and is PPR RB12 on the season.

Eagles (11-2):

Entering the fantasy playoffs on a nine-game win streak, the Eagles are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Jalen Hurts is the fantasy QB4 and leading his team toward another deep playoff run with a very strong supporting cast.

Looking at the schedule, they face a strong Steelers defense in the battle of PA, followed by two divisional opponents. The Commanders’ defense is much improved from 2023, now giving up the fifth least passing yards per game. Hurts will look to have a better game passing against them in Washington, only managing 221 yards on 18/28 attempts at home. The star of this game was Saquon Barkley, rushing for 146 yards, 2 TDs, and 52 receiving yards.

The Eagles’ success has primarily come on the ground, Saquon Barkley is 482 rushing yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season record with four games remaining. Barkley is the PPR RB1 this season, with 13 total TDs. Hurts, isn’t far behind with 13 rushing TDs of his own.

It is interesting to note that this team ranks above only the Patriots in passing yards per game, but compensate by leading the league in rushing yards. This dynamic has led to inconsistent production from Eagles’ pass catchers, but their offense maintains high ceilings ranking eighth in points per game.

AJ Brown has felt the ups and downs of this system. Despite only seeing double-digit targets in Week 1, he has still managed to rank 15th among WRs in PPR points per game this season. Devonta Smith has also been affected, by week 14 last year he had 834 receiving yards. This year he enters the playoffs with only 553, missing three games. These WRs feel like strong starts, but the passing volume will be something to watch.

Must Starts

Brian Robinson:

Brian Robinson is shaping up to be a potential league winner heading into the fantasy playoffs. With Austin Ekeler sidelined, Robinson is poised to take on a larger role in the Commanders’ offense and is a high-upside play for managers chasing a championship.

Despite dealing with minor injuries of his own, coming off a bye week Robinson should be closer to full strength than before. Before the bye week, he broke off a 40 yard TD run on his first carry of the game and totaled 103 on the day in 47% of the snaps. Finishing RB12 on the week with 18 PPR points.

The schedule also looks advantageous, the Saints are allowing the third most yards per game with the Falcons not far behind at ten. It will be interesting to see how Robinson performs in the week 16 divisional matchup against the Eagles who are allowing the second least points and least yards per game. When they played in week 11, Robinson handled 16/21 carries for 63 yards, a touchdown and 14 PPR points. Ekeler was able to find success in the passing game with 8 receptions for 89 yards, scoring 17 PPR points of his own.

Caleb Williams:

Strength of schedule is extremely prevalent here, with two high scoring divisional opponents remaining on the schedule. In weeks 12 and 13 against the Lions and Vikings, Caleb is 52/66 passing for 596 yards, 5 TDs, and 72 rushing yards finishing as a top 5 fantasy QB in each. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen finished both of these weeks as top seven PPR WRs.

These divisional defenses have similar traits, both are allowing 18 points per game, but are also top ten in passing yards allowed per game. The Vikings in particular are allowing the 4th most passing yards per game. Caleb fed his supporting cast against the Vikings, Moore reached over 100 yards, Allen secured 9/15 targets for 86 yards, and Rome Odunze also caught 5/10 targets for 39 yards.

There was a similar outcome against the Lions, before a hiccup against the 49ers. Caleb completed 17/23 passes for 134 yards and 2 TDs to Rome Odunze. It was a rough outing until the two late scores, from weeks 8-11 Caleb failed to throw or rush for a touchdown. Despite this, the talent, strong supporting cast and remaining schedule gives Caleb a weekly QB1 ceiling.

Start With Caution

Brian Thomas:

Heading into Week 15, Brian Thomas’ fantasy value has diminished despite his early-season breakout with top end weekly finishes of WR2, WR8, and WR9. With Christian Kirk sidelined, Thomas was initially viewed as a potential league winner.

More recent injury developments with Trevor Lawrence now leave Mac Jones as the starting quarterback. Jones has thrown five INTs in four games and Jaguars options should be downgraded. Thomas has been a boom or bust all year, but over the past two weeks he did get on track with the new QB with double digit targets in both games.

This receiving depth chart is very slim, missing Kirk and Davis there are not many notable names behind Thomas at WR. Evan Engram has been battling injury this season, with only 47 catches in nine games he has also been placed on the IR. Jones will continue to look for Thomas, but teams will be game planning specifically around him with the lack of playmakers. Success for Thomas will rely on Jones’ ability to make good decisions and protect the ball.

Alvin Kamara:

The Saints activated Kendre Miller off the IR who found the endzone on 10 carries for 32 yards and picked up a 14-11 win over the Giants in week 14. The victory came at a cost as Derek Carr suffered a fractured hand and concussion in the win, with Jake Haener only needing to take the final kneel down.

Sitting at 5-8 and a long shot for the playoffs with the injury to Carr, Kamara’s snaps may take a reduction. They will likely face the improved Commanders defense without Carr, then will hope he can make an unlikely return for a December game in Lambeau.

Expect a heavy workload for Kamara this week, without Carr and needing to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive. If Kamara’s efficiency is not there and they add another loss the outlook will be gloomy going into the Packers matchup who are the ninth best team against the rush and points allowed per game.