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Fantasy Football Analytics

Mid-Season Storyline Report 2025

0
  • by Chris Russo
  • in Projections · Weekly
  • — 30 Oct, 2025

Eight weeks into the 2025 NFL season, fantasy managers have already witnessed surprises and resurgences. Week 8 alone had multiple huge performances, but also several disappointing efforts from the league’s top fantasy options.

Rookie Round-Up

QBs:

To start, lets take a quick look at the top two rookie QBs so far Cam Ward (QB31) and Jaxson Dart (QB20). The beginning of Ward’s career has been extremely lackluster, he has been held to under 15 FPTS and to 1 passing TD or less in each of his eight starts. For Week 9, FFA projects Ward 14.8 FPTS and a QB28 finish in a week with 4 teams on bye. Unless a major breakout happens quick, Ward can be left off the fantasy radar until 2026 until his decision making sharpens and the Titans add sufficient talent around him.

Dart, on the other hand, has been more of a bright spot. Taking over as the starter for Russell Wilson in Week 4 against the Chargers, he immediately led the Giants to a win and hasn’t looked back since. Unfortunately the team lost Malik Nabers in the win, but that hasn’t halted Dart’s fantasy production, averaging 24.5 FPTS in his first five starts. There’s a clear spark with Dart at the helm, highlighted by another statement win in Week 6 against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. The loss of rookie RB Cam Skattebo, who had already piled up 410 rushing yards before his gruesome injury, will definitely impact the offense’s efficiency moving forward. Nonetheless, Dart’s poise and mobility have helped energize a unit that looked stagnant early in the year. With two QB3 finishes, he’s projected 21.7 FPTS in Week 9 (QB16) and firmly on the weekly QB1 watch headed into the second half of the fantasy season.

WRs:

Following the quarterbacks, several rookie pass catchers have also made early impacts on both their teams and fantasy lineups. Emeka Egbuka has been the most reliable of the group, stepping into a starting role out of the gate for Tampa Bay and producing like a veteran. Through eight weeks, he’s been nothing but consistent, commanding targets and moving the chains as the current WR7. However, his early emergence has slowed, Egbuka hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last three games and has been held under 10 fantasy points in each. Despite this, his route running and early chemistry with Mayfield keep him locked in as the Buccaneers’ top receiving option following the Week 9 bye. With Mike Evans sidelined due to a broken collarbone likely to keep him out until the playoffs, Egbuka is in prime position to bounce back and re-establish himself as a weekly fantasy difference maker.

Tetairoa McMillan has arrived in Carolina and is already making his presence felt. The Panthers selected him 8th overall in the 2025 draft and through eight games he’s recorded 37 catches for 512 yards (ranking 10th among all WRs), but only two TDs. The lack of redzone opportunities has limited his fantasy production, but his steady target share and lengthy 6’5″ frame have still propelled him to WR18 (100.2 FPTS) through eight weeks. With the starting QB in question, McMillan is projected 12.2 FPTS in Week 9 (WR26) and remains a solid WR2/flex play regardless of matchup.

The all-around Travis Hunter has offered flashes of upside that fantasy managers want to see, but his first eight weeks has left mixed feelings. Drafted 2nd overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2025, Hunter has posted 28 catches for 298 yards and 1 touchdown through seven games. This puts him at WR43 on the year in PPR formats. Hunter went into the Week 8 bye following the best performance of his young career, catching 8/14 targets for 101 yards and a TD in Week 7 (24.1 FPTS / WR9). Playing 67/77 of the offensive snaps in a 35-7 blowout loss and only 14/70 defensive snaps. The Jaguars will need to figure out how to translate this production into wins, but there is hope for steadier fantasy value. For Week 9, FFA projects 10 FPTS (WR41), keeping him in deep flex territory while he works toward consistent lineup-value.

TEs:

Finally, tight ends have played a quietly important role through the first half of the season, with several rookies stepping up as reliable options in their offenses. Tyler Warren has emerged as a key weapon for Daniel Jones and the 7-1 Colts, catching 37 passes for 492 yards (15th in the NFL) and 3 TDs through 8 weeks. This has him as the fantasy TE4 halfway through the season, totaling 110.8 FPTS and averaging 13.9 per game (TE5). Lining up next to Jonathan Taylor, this offense rarely punts and scores often, ranking first in yards and points per game. FFA projects Warren 12.8 FPTS in Week 9 (TE3), slating him as an easy TE1 rest of season.

Browns tight end Harold Fannin has also had an impressive start, sitting as the current fantasy TE7 and averaging 10.7 FPTS (TE12). The third round pick currently leads the Browns in receiving yards (352) and receptions (38), being one of the few bright spots in an offense that ranks 31st in yards per game (YPG). In Week 8, he out-targeted (8-5) and out-snapped (74%-59%) David Njoku for 6 receptions, 62 yards, and hauled in Dillon Gabriel’s first passing TD. Heading into their bye week, the Browns have plenty of questions to answer, but should be encouraged by their young TEs performance. Keeping the offense’s struggles in mind, Fannin should still be held in high regard as a fringe TE1 rest of season.

Orande Gadsden has quickly emerged as one of the most intriguing rookies in 2025 over the past three weeks. He’s already totaled 27 receptions for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns through eight games, catching fire for 309 yards of those yards in weeks 6-8. Since Week 6, he’s seen 75% or more of the snaps and 22 targets from Justin Herbert. His finishes in recent weeks, TE12 followed by TE2 and TE3, have turned heads and placed him firmly in the fantasy TE conversation. Projected 11 FPTS (TE8) in Week 9, Gadsden’s profile and increasing role in the explosive Chargers offensive makes him an intriguing piece for your fantasy team.

Colston Loveland has yet to make a major fantasy splash, but the rookie tight end is building a foundation for future upside. Through 8 weeks he’s been held to just 11 catches for 116 yards and 0 touchdowns. Despite the modest production, his frame and route running has helped open the perimeter for the Chicago Bears to allow Rome Odunze his PPR WR14 start. Cole Kmet missed Week 8 and Loveland saw his largest snap share of the year (81%), only bringing in 3/5 targets for 38 yards. Being projected 5.67 FPTS (TE27) for Week 9, the disappointing start makes it tough to even keep him on a season long roster.

A Peek at RB Scoring

Last year, Saquon and Henry lead RB fantasy scoring, but this year has been all Jonathan Taylor. His 214 PPR points through 8 weeks is the most since Melvin Gordon in 2018 (240 FPTS) and his 191 standard FPTS is the most since Priest Holmes in 2002. FFA projects Taylor 21 FPTS as the RB2 in Week 9 and is well on the way to smashing his season long projection of 258 PPR FPTS.

Another interesting backfield headed into the 2025 season was the Chicago Bears with D’Andre Swift, 7th round draft pick Kyle Monangai and a revamped offensive line. Through the first 4 weeks Swift averaged 12.55 PPR FPTS, dominating the touches with a weak yards per carry (YPC) of 3.4. With a few efficient games and 2 RB6 finishes, those numbers have rose to 4.64 YPC and 15.94 PPR FPTS per game. FFA projects Swift 15.7 FPTS in Week 9 and sits at RB11 on the season, but Monangai’s snaps have continued to increase. Seeing 46% of the snaps in the past 2 weeks, Monangai produced 17.4 FPTS in Week 7 with 13 carries, 81 yards, and a TD. FFA only projects Monangai 5.94 FPTS in Week 9 vs Cincinnati, but this is a backfield to monitor. With tough fantasy playoff matchups on the horizon against the Browns and Packers, two defenses ranking top 6 in yards allowed per game, it may be time to pivot off of Swift at RB11 value.

Two backs who have emerged as major fantasy factors this season are Javonte Williams and Rico Dowdle, each doing so in different ways. Williams has found his stride in Dallas, sitting as the PPR RB5, carrying the ball 124 times for 633 yards and 9 total TDs (5.1 YPC) through eight games. His improved efficiency from four years of under 4.5 YPC and increased volume have made him a late round steal. Playing with the second highest scoring and YPG offense, along with the defense allowing the second most points and YPG, Williams will continue to have plenty of opportunity. FFA projects 16 PPR FPTS (RB10) in Week 9.

Rico Dowdle burst onto the scene in Week 5, becoming one of 2025’s biggest fantasy surprises after taking over as Carolina’s lead back following limited opportunities in Dallas. Performances of 23 carries for 206 rushing yards (32.4 FPTS) and 30 carries for 183 rushing yards (33.9 FPTS), left fantasy managers stunned. However, Chuba Hubbard’s return in Week 7 cut Dowdle’s snaps from 88% vs Dallas to 46% and 36% in Week 8. Hubbard out-snapped him in both games since his return, and with Bryce Young returning from a concussion it remains to be seen whether the Panthers commit to a true lead back. Dowdle’s explosiveness keeps him fantasy-relevant, but his weekly floor depends heavily on usage and game script. FFA projects Dowdle 10 FPTS (RB26) in Week 9 and Hubbard 8 FPTS (RB32).

Producing Veterans:

Christian McCaffrey continues to do what he always does, dominate. Through eight weeks, he’s totaled 490 rushing yards, 559 receiving yards, and 6 total TDs, sitting as the PPR RB2. His dual-threat usage and league leading 74 targets among running backs (3rd in the NFL) keep him locked in as a weekly top option. FFA projects McCaffrey as the PPR RB1 in Week 9 with 26 FPTS.

Keenan Allen has been a machine in 2025, currently the WR8 with 15 FPTS per game. At 33 years old, he has reclaimed his role as Justin Herbert’s most trusted option, leading the Chargers in targets (70), receptions (48), and receiving yards (479). Allen has averaged 62% of the snaps through 8 weeks, outside of the blowout 37-10 win vs Minnesota where he played only 25%. His elite route running and chemistry with Herbert continues to generate volume, making him one of the safest WR plays in fantasy. FFA projects the veteran 16 FPTS in Week 9 (WR11).

Davante Adams has found renewed purpose with the 5-2 Rams, currently ranking WR12 through eight weeks with 431 receiving yards and 6 TDs. His target share remains elite at 26.5% and the early connection shown with Matthew Stafford gives him clear upside. In an offense ranking 11th in points and 6th in YPG, FFA projects Adams 16 FPTS in Week 9 (WR8).

Patrick Mahomes is once again atop of the fantasy leaderboard as the QB1, averaging 25 FPTS. The Chiefs are 5-3 behind Mahomes tied for the league lead in passing TDs (17) and second in passing yards (2,099). With the return of Rashee Rice and the 3 time champions ability to spread the ball, FFA projects Mahomes 26 FPTS in Week 9 (QB3).

Travis Kelce continues to show that age is just a number at tight end. Through eight games in 2025, he’s the TE5 with 37 receptions for 474 yards (2nd among TEs) and 3 TDs, averaging 12.8 FPTS. After passing Priest Holmes to become the Chiefs all-time TD leader, FFA projects Kelce 10 FPTS in Week 9 (TE9).

Jake Ferguson has taken a major step forward in Dallas, emerging as the TE1 through eight weeks. He leads the TE position in receptions (50), translating to 334 yards and 6 TDs. The efficiency with Dak Prescott on only 59 targets is impressive, and consistent red-zone usage make him a strong weekly starter. FFA projects one of 2025’s best tight end values 11 FPTS in Week 9 (TE7).

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