2019 Projections Now Live!
83We have updated our Shiny App and API with 2019 fantasy football projections. The projections incorporate our balanced “wisdom of the crowd” approach and have been the most accurate projections over the last several years. The data from 2018 is also available to compare the accuracy of our sources.
Our gold mining chart can be used during a draft to compare ADP to projections to find undervalued and high upside players as well as in season to pick a winning lineup. You can access the Projections tool via the app here:
http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net
For instructions on how to use the app, see here. We also have a Draft Optimizer tool (see here). See our articles on how to win your Snake Draft and Auction Draft. We will be updating the projections as the season approaches with more sources of projections.
In order to access the most advanced features of the app, you will need a subscription to FFA Insider. A FFA Insider subscription will allow you to save unlimited custom settings, download historical projections, examine the accuracy of historical projections, and more.
We also have an API that you can use to access our projections. You can find more information about our API here.
Hello Val-
Where do we see the projections for 2018 when I click accurate projections it only goes up to 2016
Hi! You can examine the accuracy of all projections (including 2018 projections) in the app:
https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2015/07/accuracy-of-fantasy-football-projections-interactive-scatterplot-in-r.html
When I click on the link in chrome, it loads a blank screen. When I click in safari, it loads a screen that says “disconnected from server” Is this because I’m not a paying subscriber?
Hi! Try these steps: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#appNotLoading
Same issue here. Tried from multiple computers and browsers. I put in an error ticket, hopefully I can get it to work soon.
a lot of times it takes a long time to load for me but it eventually does. sometimes you have to referesh a few times
I’m signing up for the subscription, so this bug isn’t gonna block any functionality for me, but it appears that unpaid users cannot save over their current settings, or delete any old settings.
Turns out it’s simply a problem with deleting custom settings in general.
Hi! Please try these steps: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors
Hi Isaac,
Awesome site! Just wondering if the Bye Week column will be fixed before pre-season starts. Right now it’s blank for everyone. Thanks!
Should be fixed!
The projections do not change when I select an average of different projection sources. For ex, if i select 1) average of nfl+yahoo and 2) average of yahoo+espn, the two data sets are the same. Additionally, the projections do not change when I modify the weights for various sources.
Hi! Please try these steps: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors
Looks like Mike Williams is listed twice. Once under LAC and again as a FA.
Hi! To report data issues, see here:
https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#incorrectProjection
We got your error report, and this should be fixed. Thanks!
Hey there. My page loads just fine and will let me look at the site for a short time, but after a bit every time I click on a tab or anything I get a message saying “Disconnected from server: reload” I hit reload and it will bring the main page back again and the same thing continues to happen. I tried all the steps to fix errors but still can’t do anything on the site. Anyone have any ideas on how to fix?
Hi Isaac,
When I take the floor and ceiling of Saquon Barkley as 10th and 90th percentile of distribution of projections, and assume normal distribution (and therefore assume z = +/- 1.282) deriving the standard deviation from (floor – average)/(-1.282) and (ceiling-average)/(+1.282) does not give the sdPts in your data table (and in fact give two different answers)…..—> is it improper to assume a normal distribution of projections, or am I making some other foolish mistake? Thanks.
Hi! The distribution of players’ projections is not necessarily normally distributed. That’s why we take the percentile (rather than +/- SD) to determine the floor and ceiling.
Thanks! Can you critique how bad of an assumption normality is? I had in mind to predict the expected value of the max of two players (for a bestball auction format) so as to be able to compare rostering 1 elite qb versus 2 top 15 qbs (as an example). I would not know how to perform such an analysis if the assumption of normality is a bad idea.
Can the ADP of the players be changed to reflect the scoring settings (e.g. half ppr)?
Hi! We try to provide the ADP that matches closest to the league setting. However most sources for ADP are either ppr or non ppr. So ADP in the app is most likely a mix. Also keep in mind that the emergence of superflex leagues have skewed the ADP values (especially for QBs) and in general it is my observation that the scoring settings for different leagues are getting more diverse (including points for 1st downs, deductions for sacks, negative points for pix sixes etc) so it may not be an apples to apples comparison when you look at ADP values versus your own customized rankings.
When should I deviate strictly from the VOR in comparison to the ADP? Hard for me to imagine myself placing some of the lower tier rb’s (e.g. Mixon/Cook) above Hopkins/Adams in some variations of the baseline.
Hi! How you compare players across positions with VOR is sensitive to the VOR baseline you use. Use the VOR baseline that is most sensible for your league. Then draft starters based on VOR and draft bench players based on ceiling: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2013/09/win-your-fantasy-football-snake-draft.html
Thanks for the response Isaac. One last question for you. I’ve read a few articles about determining the VOR baseline (e.g. top 100 players, last starter to be used.) What would you recommend as the “best” baseline?
When I try to visit projections the page refuses to load in Chrome and Firefox. It just sits as a white page and stops loading.
Hi! Try these steps: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#appNotLoading. Please try waiting a minute while loading the app again. The app can take a while to initiate upon first load.
When will the ffanalytics R package work correctly? None of the projections match the projections on the site. It also only works for week = 0.
Hi! The package is working. You can only scrape seasonal projections from the web (week = 0) because websites don’t have weekly projections up already. If you see an incorrect projection, see here: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#incorrectProjection
Hi Isaac! I like the app very much. Are you planning to include adp from the Sleeper app? thx
Hi! You can access ADP in the “Table” tab of the Projections tool: https://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/
Thx for the quick reply! I know you have included sources of ADP (like NFL, ESPN or Yahoo) but do you have the data for the ADP of Sleeper?
I am seeing IDP players show up in my traditional-roster projections. No IDP positions are selected under General settings, and all IDP starting positions are set to 0 under League settings. Any ideas how I can fix this?
Hi! See here: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors
Hi, the Projections page is always loading as blank for me. any suggestions? thanks
https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#appNotLoading
sorry if you’re getting this post twice. I can’t load the Projections page. it’s blank in Safari, and returns a security notice on Firefox (SEC_ERROR_UNKNOWN_ISSUER). thanks
Hi! See here: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#errors
Hi Isaac! How did you manage to scrape the projections from ESPN with their new web page? The data does not seem to be accessible with HTML functions in R. Thanks!
Hey Issac!
Long time user and I love this website. I’m here in Austin and I’ve been sweeping my leagues ever since I got ahold of your projections.
That being said, I was wondering if I’m in a PPR Snake Draft, non-auction, is there a way to use the app? I would love to use the Snake Draft optimizer but I’m afraid I can’t unless there is a cost involved. Have you had others use this app in the past without involving cost or had somebody figure out a way around it?
Background:
10 man league
PPR
ESPN
Again, thanks for all of your help!
Are you going to update the projections?
Hi! Projections are updated daily!
Hi Isaac, this is the exact type of fantasy website I’ve been looking for. Thank you so much for doing this! Also, are you going to be updating the projections anytime soon? I just have a draft in two days 😬
Hi! Projections are updated daily!
When i try to click on Snake Optimizer App i get a blank screen. Did all the bullet points for errors and still a blank screen
Hi! See here: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#appNotLoading
I like to put a weighted average for you guys and PFF, but what would your prediction be with weights? I know your ranking already has a weighted average.
Hi,
Does this system account at all for potential injuries/suspensions/holdouts leading to role changes? Like for example if Ezekiel Elliott does not report to the Cowboys this season, Tony Pollard would step into his role could be the workhorse RB for a very potent running game. In my custom settings, he has a rank of 262, but his ADP is 149.47. Wouldn’t it be a good idea to invest a late pick into a guy who could potentially inherit a huge workload on a good offense rather than in a boring option with a higher ceiling VOR?
It seems like this isn’t accounted for in your recommended draft strategy, however guys who experienced this last season like Conner and Chubb were league winners despite probably having lower ceiling VORs than guys they were drafted around. It seems like this midseason workload spike potential is baked into the ADP for these type of circumstantial breakout players but the projections largely ignore this, making them appear incredibly overvalued. Ultimately in the later rounds, the goal is to take players with high ceilings, so what could be more high-ceiling than inheriting a large volume role on a good offense if injury were to happen? These types of situations seem to play out every year.
What’s your take on this, Isaac?
Hi Isaac,
How do you address situations such as last year when James Conner inherited a massive workload when Bell’s holdout extended throughout the season. It seems like the potential for walking into a large volume role on a good offense due to the starter being injured/suspended/holdout is not at all accounted for in your system even though it has resulted in the emergence of potential league winners.
For example, Ezekiel Elliott could possibly holdout/get injured, which seems to be baked into his ADP at 149.47, but his VOR rank at 262 indicates that he is “overvalued”. A guy who’s ADP is around that neighborhood, John Brown, is almost certain to flounder in the Buffalo offense, however his VOR is nearly TWICE as much as Pollards. Aren’t you better off selecting a lottery ticket like Pollard who could walk into a large volume role on a good offense at any point over the season over a guy like John Brown who is almost certain to have a forgettable season. Brown’s Ceiling VOR is way higher than of Pollards with Standard PPR settings. How can this be?
I’m not Isaac but here’s my opinion. I think this is due to the fact that most analysts are still expecting Zeke to be back week 1 and their projections reflect this. I’ve heard it stated that “Until he’s holding out week 3 of the preseason I’m not worried”. I would expect most projections to start reflecting his absence in the next week or two.
HI Isaac,
Is the auction tool that I can use during my draft going to be up? Do I need to become a subscriber to access it?
Thanks so much.
Hi Isaac,
since today I get different RB tiers when I run my R Script than you have, which makes visualization difficult. E.g. Duke Johnson at pos_rank 50 has a tier of 17 instead of 10. What could be the possible reason be?
Best
Alex
Isaac,
When do you expect ESPN ADP info to be available? My league plays on ESPN and while its informative to look at ADP across all sites the guys in my league mostly go off ESPN rankings so it’s best for me to look at those to get an idea of who’s under/over valued on that particular site. Thanks!
When will the projections be updated again, it still says August 15th is the last update, my draft is coming up soon and I would really appreciate if they were updated…
app is not opening on chrome or explorer (just me?)
Works for me, just shows the last updated time only as 08/15/2019 11:24 AM UTC
I can’t access any pages after the first page. Any tips?
No AAV for ESPN. I believe others are experiencing the same issue. Is this due to a change in ESPN data extraction?
Isaac,
Is there any difference between running my league’s custom scoring through your app versus doing it via R?
I’m getting a msg that says not connected to server and draft is tonight!
Plz help. Use this every year!
How often are the rankings from each site updated? I still see Josh Gordon as WR41, when most sites have him mid-20s so that was just worrying me.
I am having trouble scraping projections from ESPN using the R package. I also wrote some of my own coding using rvest to scrape league specific ESPN pages and I cannot seem to get this code to work either. The issue clearly arises from ESPN redoing their fantasy website, but I have tried to change my code and can’t seem to scrape any info from them with their new format. Have you had any luck or do you know if they are somehow blocking scraping?
Hi! See here:
https://github.com/FantasyFootballAnalytics/ffanalytics/issues/30
When do you anticipate week 1 projections coming out?
I would also like to know this
same here. Thanks.
I am interested in the timeline of week 1 projections as well
The time is now.
I check several times a day hoping they’ll drop before tomorrow’s kick-off
The wait is over!
Is the projections app down? I can’t seem to access it, nothing loads :/
Hi! Please see the FAQ.
Can we expect week 1 projections and the DFS Optimizer?
Hi, when will the 2019 week 1 projections be posted? Thanks!
Hi Isaac. Thanks to your app I have won my league 2 years in a row and now going for a 3 peat. In excitement of the new season I wanted to enter some DFS games but unfortunatelly the only source for predictions I trust is yours. Will you be doing weekly gold mining for 2019 like in the past? If so, when can we expect week 1. Thanks again!
Its Up.
Can you double check the Yahoo DFS tool for week 1. The others work (Fanduel, DK, FantasyScore), but yahoo does not give an output in the table of the optimal lineup. Thanks, in advance!
I’m having some trouble getting the Yahoo DFS prices to load in the week 1 Lineup Optimizer. I have used your optimizer with a lot of success in cash games in the past years. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!
Looks like the App isn’t up and running yet for week two.
Anyone having trouble with the “Disconnected from the server” message? I tried every step previously listed to fix the issue and have had no luck. This just started for me today.
Is there an option to see playoff projections in its entirety, not just week 18?
Is this still being updated for 2020?
They’re up!