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Fantasy Football Analytics

Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 6

2
  • by Michael Griebe
  • in Gold Mining · Projections · R · Weekly
  • — 15 Oct, 2015

Welcome to week 6. The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, FOX Sports, NumberFire, FantasySharks, ESPN, FFToday and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article was collected on 10/14/15. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Justin Forsett, Dion Lewis, Ronnie Hillman, Shane Vereen and Thomas Rawls are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Arian Foster, Shane Vereen, Duke Johnson, Matt Jones and Alfred Blue are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Justin Forsett, Karlos Williams, Antonio Andrews, Dan Herron and Anthony Dixon are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

    plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Ronnie Hillman, Shane Vereen, Dan Herron, Ahmad Bradshaw and Thomas Rawls are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Adrian Peterson, Shane Vereen, Darren Sproles, Matt Jones and Alfred Blue are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Justin Forsett, Karlos Williams, Antonio Andrews, Anthony Dixon and Dan Herron are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-3

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Allen Hurns, Mike Wallace and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin and Marvin Jones are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson, Davante Adams, Nate Washington and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-4

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Allen Hurns, Mike Wallace and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
    • Jeremy Maclin, Pierre Garcon, Percy Harvin, Cecil Shorts and Jermaine Kearse are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
    • On the other hand, Leonard Hankerson, DeSean Jackson, Nate Washington, Eddie Royal and Davante Adams are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-5

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— Michael Griebe

I'm an Economist, R Coder, Entrepreneur, Web-Dabbler, and Fantasy Football Enthusiast.

2 Comments

  1. Arash says:
    October 19, 2015 at 12:42 pm

    Good stuff but upon review of last week not many of the guys in this breakdown panned out.

    I’m wondering where the disconnect is on something so well done and thought out? Not trying to be a troll. I see a lot of value in this. I could be reading it the wrong way as well.

    I stumbled on this blog about a yr ago and forgot. Glad I found it and will keep comparing the data to how things play out.

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      October 19, 2015 at 9:38 pm

      This is a problem of predicting weekly performance, which involves lots of random variability (chance). Seasonal projections are likely more accurate than weekly projections. For more info, see here:
      https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2015/02/stats-help-fantasy-football.html

      Reply

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