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Fantasy Football Analytics

Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 11

16
  • by Michael Griebe
  • in Gold Mining · Projections · R · Weekly
  • — 18 Nov, 2015

Welcome to week 11. The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, FOX Sports, NumberFire, FantasySharks, ESPN and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article were collected on 11/17/15. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs below, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Charcandrick West, Jeremy Langford, Ronnie Hillman, Eddie Lacy and Andre Ellington are the five players with the largest upside (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles, Mike Tolbert and Thomas Rawls are the players with the smallest downside (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Jeremy Langford, Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Knile Davis and Taiwan Jones are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

    plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Jeremy Langford, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Ameer Abdullah and Roy Helu are the five players with the largest upside (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, Javorius Allen and Mike Tolbert are the players with the smallest downside (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Charcandrick West, Jeremy Langford, Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte and Knile Davis are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-3

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Emmanuel Sanders, Anquan Boldin, Doug Baldwin, Mike Wallace and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest upside (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, Allen Hurns, Donte Moncrief and Mike Wallace are the players with the smallest downside (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Vincent Jackson, Kamar Aiken, Steve Johnson, Malcom Floyd and Kendall Wright are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-4

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Michael Crabtree, Emmanuel Sanders, Malcom Floyd, Mike Wallace and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest upside (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
    • T.Y. Hilton, Allen Hurns, Rishard Matthews, Terrance Williams and Mike Wallace are the players with the smallest downside (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
    • On the other hand, Danny Amendola, Kamar Aiken, Vincent Jackson, Kendall Wright and Malcom Floyd are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-5

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— Michael Griebe

I'm an Economist, R Coder, Entrepreneur, Web-Dabbler, and Fantasy Football Enthusiast.

16 Comments

  1. Adam says:
    November 18, 2015 at 7:38 pm

    Any chance of filtering out players projected for fewer than X points from the low downside list and replacing it with high-floor plays? Perhaps something like “of the top 20 players these 5 have the smallest downside” would be more useful.

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      November 18, 2015 at 9:57 pm

      “Smallest downside” players (2nd bullet point in each section) is the same as “high-floor plays”.

      Reply
      • Adam says:
        November 22, 2015 at 8:05 am

        My point is that there are shitty players on that list, like Buck Allen, who have low downside because they have a low floor. If someone’s highest projection is 3, and his lowest projection is 1, you’re calling that “small downside” but that’s completely useless for making line up decisions. Sorry if I was unclear the first time.

        Reply
        • Isaac Petersen says:
          November 22, 2015 at 10:27 am

          Yea, that appears to be a mistake because Javorius Allen isn’t among the players with the highest floor. We’ll look into it. Thanks.

          Reply
  2. Mark Sherrod says:
    November 19, 2015 at 4:56 pm

    How is Eddie Lacy ranked so high on your app? He hasn’t put up good numbers hardly at all this year? Im not complaining but I just want to know so I can truly base everything off your app??

    Thanks

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      November 19, 2015 at 8:31 pm

      Not sure what you mean. We have him projected to score 7.10 points this week, which is a rank of 159. Our projections are averages of other sources of projections.

      Reply
  3. Desire says:
    November 22, 2015 at 11:50 am

    Chris Givens?

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      November 22, 2015 at 12:03 pm

      You can find him in our weekly projections here:
      http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/projections

      Reply
  4. derek says:
    November 24, 2015 at 8:23 am

    Will everything be ran prior to the Thanksgiving day games?

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      November 24, 2015 at 1:03 pm

      Yes, the data are always updated prior to the Thursday games.

      Reply
      • derek says:
        November 25, 2015 at 9:32 am

        thank you

        Reply
  5. derek says:
    November 25, 2015 at 9:32 am

    i tried running it for draftkings and its not giving the highest points, highest ceiling, and highest floor.

    Reply
    • Scott says:
      November 25, 2015 at 5:16 pm

      Yes, The lineup optimizer is broken for Week 12. Highest Points, Highest Ceiling and Highest Floor are all empty.

      Reply
      • Isaac Petersen says:
        November 25, 2015 at 5:24 pm

        It’s not broken we just haven’t updated salaries yet for this week. Hope to have them up soon.

        Reply
        • Scott says:
          November 25, 2015 at 6:53 pm

          Thanks for the quick response!

          Reply
          • Scott says:
            November 26, 2015 at 9:28 am

            Salaries are missing from the Thursday early games…

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