2024 Rookie WR Accuracy

With the 2024 NFL season in the books and a new rookie class on the way, it is time to examine how our projections fared vs last year’s rookie WRs. Three of these players finished as top 15 scoring fantasy WRs, with two in the top 10. These players entered ideal situations with vacated targets from 2023 departures and clear opportunity to fill the roles left behind. These breakouts should have been more obvious and we must learn from the past to dominate drafts in the future.

Elite Talent Breakout

Brian Thomas Jr:

Our PPR Projection: 168 Fantasy Points (FPTS)/WR51
Actual PPR Finish: 284 FPTS/WR4

Coming out of LSU and drafted 23rd to the Jaguars, Thomas boasted a freak athletic profile and 9.84 RAS score. The question was whether he could be a true number one receiver at the NFL level after playing with Malik Nabers at LSU. He proved this in his first year and the projection turned out to be a lowball, off by 116 FPTS. Thomas became the offense’s target hog regardless of who was under center and running routes next to him, posting a season statline of 87/1282/10.

Ridley walking to the Titans opened up a massive opportunity and left little target competition for Thomas’ role. This competition only got thinner as the year went on with injuries to multiple pass catchers, but the Jaguars have made splashes so far in the 2025 offseason. Adding Travis Hunter at #2 overall and a new HC in Liam Cohen (Tampa’s OC in 24′) should only help Thomas’ fantasy performance next year. With Trevor Lawrence now supported by two dynamic weapons, Thomas projects confidently as a high end fantasy WR1 heading into 2025.

Malik Nabers:

Our PPR Projection: 215 FPTS/WR30
Actual PPR Finish: 274 FPTS/WR6

Malik Nabers enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign with the Giants in 2024 and calling his production impressive would be an understatement. In a season where the Giants finished 3-14 with 4 different QBs lined up under center, he immediately emerged as the team’s top receiving threat and led the league in target share with 32% of his team’s total. The 6th overall pick out of LSU exceeded the expectations of many, delivering 109 receptions, 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns in only 15 games. This broke Puka Nacua’s rookie WR record of 105 catches from the season prior, leaving him second all-time to only Brock Bowers.

Looking to build on his massive rookie season, Nabers will now have a completely revamped QB room. The Giants signed Russell Wilson to a one year deal, Jameis Winston to a two year deal, and traded up to draft Jaxson Dart at #25. Regardless of who wins the job, any change under center bodes well for Nabers’ efficiency and scoring opportunities after ranking last in redzone TD% in 2024. The team is yet to add receiving competition, but bolstered its supporting cast by drafting RB Cameron Skattebo to compliment Tyrone Tracy. With an improved offense and another offseason to refine his game, Nabers projects firmly as a top tier fantasy WR1 entering 2025.

Second Tier Breakouts

Ladd McConkey:

Our PPR Projection: 168 FPTS/WR50
Actual PPR Finish: 241 FPTS/WR13

McConkey entered 2024 with modest expectations as the 33rd pick, but quickly became the most reliable piece in the Chargers’ offense and easily surpassed the projection by 73 FPTS. He led all 2024 rookies in yards per route run (2.6 YPRR) with 82 receptions and 1149 yards on 424 routes. After averaging just 10.44 PPG through the first 7 weeks, McConkey broke out for his first 100 yard game in week 8 and finished the rest of the season averaging 18 PPG.

The 2025 outlook for McConkey should look similar to his 2024 finish. There is still weak target competition for McConkey in LA, all they have added to the pass catching room is 55th pick WR Tre Harris and a couple of 5th rounders. They did add Omarion Hampton with the 22nd pick and Najee Harris, emphasizing this team wants to run the ball. Staying ahead of the chains with an improved run game can completely open up the offense for Justin Herbert and lead to more redzone scoring opportunities. McConkey projects as a strong weekly start in 2025 with top 15 WR upside once again.

Vacated Targets = Fantasy Gold

One clear takeaway from the top standout rookie WRs is the significant fantasy value that was derived from vacated targets. Each of these receivers entered offenses with massive holes left by departing veterans. Nabers inherited 79 targets from Darren Waller, as well as Saquon Barkley leaving them without an offensive focal point. Thomas transcended Ridley’s role (136 targets in 23′), taking advantage of injuries and an additional 85 vacated targets from Zay Jones/Jamal Agnew. McConkey capitalized on the 317 target void created by the departures of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett. Fantasy managers must emphasize these open opportunities when projecting rookie success, particularly when highly touted prospects enter the situation. The formula is straightforward: substantial vacated targets and high draft capital frequently leads to immediate fantasy production. Leveraging this concept yearly can enhance your own draft strategies and help secure league winning talent at discounted prices.

Marvin Harrison Jr:

Our PPR Projection: 245 FPTS/WR12
Actual PPR Finish: 197 FPTS/WR30

Harrison Jr. entered 2024 as one of the most hyped rookie WRs in recent memory and the Cardinals made him the 4th overall NFL pick. In fantasy, he was regularly the first rookie WR off the board with an ADP of 21.6. This was too high and a tough expectation for a rookie, Harrison finished behind a plethora of WRs being drafted much later (ADPs: Mclaurin- 75, Njigba- 107, and Sutton- 112). McBride was not looked at as enough target competition headed into the season, garnering 41 more targets in 2024 (147 total, 1146 yards) and Kyler Murray’s clear top option.

While the season was disappointing for fantasy managers who invested early in Harrison after falling short of the steep projection, his rookie year wasn’t without bright spots. His statline of 62/885/8 ranks second all-time among Cardinals rookie receivers in yards and tied for first in touchdowns. 116 targets on 495 routes for 1.68 YPRR in 2024 highlights the need for increased efficiency to reach elite fantasy production. With HC Jonathan Gannon entering his third season, unlocking an efficient side in Harrison’s game will be key to making him a better value in 2025.

Xavier Worthy:

Our PPR Projection: 176 FPTS/WR46
Actual PPR Finish: 187/WR33

Setting the combine 40 yard dash record and being drafted in the first round by the Chiefs, there was plenty of speculation centered around Worthy headed into 2024. With a season ending injury to Rashee Rice in week 4, someone had to step up for Patrick Mahomes. His role grew significantly down the stretch, seeing his first 80% snap share in Week 14 and averaging 83% for the rest of the regular season and playoffs. He finished the regular season with 59/628/9, adding 3 rushing TDs, and averaging 21 points in weeks 15-17. In the NFL playoffs, he led the Chiefs in receptions (19), receiving yards (287) and total TDs (3). Andy Reed showed his willingness to rely on Worthy throughout the playoffs and he delivered.

Even with Kelce and Rice returning, the arrow is pointing up for Worthy in 2025 after surpassing his projection and a strong finish to the season. They added two intriguing rookies late in the 2025 draft, Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith, but neither is likely to threaten Worthy’s role moving forward. With his elite speed and growing comfort in the offense, Worthy has a clear path to a full time role in 2025 with plenty of fantasy upside as a strong WR2/3.

Room For Improvement

Rome Odunze:

Our PPR Projection: 163 FPTS/WR53
Actual PPR Finish: 149 FPTS/WR49

Odunze had a relatively quiet rookie year for fantasy purposes, posting just 54/734/3 on 103 targets. Chicago has quickly become a hot topic this off season, hiring former Lions OC Ben Johnson as their HC to lead the franchise into a new era with Caleb Williams. They also fired OC Shane Waldron after just one season (previously fired in Seattle after 2023) and invested high draft capital in pass catchers, selecting TE Colston Loveland at 10th overall and WR Luther Burden at 39th. All these moves signal a clear desire to revamp their offensive philosophy, one important thing to note is that GM Ryan Poles has been there since 2022 and selected Odunze 9th overall in last years draft.

The Bears ran 11 personnel for 71% of their offensive snaps (3WRs, 1RB, 1TE) and gave Odzune plenty of opportunity, but he fell short of his projection by 14 FPTS. He ran the second most routes on the team (511), compared to current free agent Keenan Allen (453). Allen was more efficient and finished the season as WR34, producing 70/744/7 on 121 targets. While Allen’s departure might suggest a clear path to more volume for Odunze, it’s worth being aware he already had significant opportunity in 2024. Potential for growth may come from improved personal/team efficiency and increased redzone opportunities in a revamped offense. Odunze’s value should be lower in 2025 drafts, but he is now set up to bounce back and deliver better WR2/3 fantasy numbers.

Keon Coleman:

Our PPR Projection: 179 FPTS/WR44
Actual PPR Finish: 112 FPTS/WR79

Coleman’s rookie year in Buffalo was a bit of a rollercoaster. Drafted in the second round to fill big shoes and battling a wrist injury that kept him out from weeks 10-14, Coleman failed to reach his projection by 67 FPTS. The Bills lost their top two targets (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) going into 2024, who accounted for 45% of the team’s target share in 2023. Missing time hurt his final stats, posting only 29/556/4 on 57 targets and 287 routes. Coleman still posted a respectable 1.94 YPRR, ranking fourth among rookie WRs (min 150 routes), outperforming teammate Amari Cooper (1.62 YPRR) but behind Khalil Shakir (2.33 YPRR).

There was no clear top receiver in the Bills’ offense last year and the WR room remains unsettled heading into 2025. With Amari Cooper still a current free agent and the only notable additions being Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore, Coleman will have another shot to emerge as a primary target for Josh Allen. Coleman boasts an 8.18 RAS score, reflecting his excellent size (6’3, 213 lbs) and explosiveness. His 4.61 40 yard dash was evident in 2024. A lack of top end speed was highlighted, potentially forcing him into more of a contested catch and jump ball role at the NFL level. If Coleman can use his size and physicality to win at the catch point while refining his route tree to offset his lack of speed, he has the potential to be a dangerous downfield and red zone weapon for the Bills. He projects similarly for 2025, as a WR4/5 with upside for more in a high powered offense led by Josh Allen.

Final Thoughts and What it Means for 2025

As this class of rookie wide receivers showed, fantasy production is often a product of both talent and situation. Opportunity metrics like routes run are helpful for identifying breakouts, but efficiency numbers like YPRR separate true stars from volume dependent stat lines. The graph below visualizes this relationship, showcasing who overperformed, who underwhelmed, and how usage factored into their production. On the Y axis is yards per route run, higher YPRR is better. The X axis is routes run, high YPRR on a high route count is more impressive than a high YPRR on a low route count.

Looking ahead to the 2025 rookie pass catchers, it’s clear that few are stepping into ideal situations with wide-open target shares or minimal competition. That doesn’t mean they won’t produce, but history tells us that most projection sources tend to cautiously project rookies. They’re usually close on the average, but miss big on the few players who truly break out. For fantasy managers, the key is identifying which prospects have the talent and situation to defy those expectations and become outliers.

We’ll break down those landing spots and expected roles in our upcoming rookie positional previews, diving into which players are best set up to deliver immediate fantasy value.