Week 9 Preview
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Understanding regression to the mean will make you a smarter fantasy owner. Whether it’s players, teams, or fantasy standings, regression to the mean is the force that pulls activity into its natural bell curve. If you have ever wondered how to best estimate your league’s (matchup-based) standings at seasons end, this can be done through regression to the mean. This does not necessarily help to predict next week’s action, rather the long-term. The key is to look at the distribution of Points For and Points Against within your league.
A team with Low Points Against (compared to league average) is a “lucky owner.” We expect this person to drop in the rankings upon facing opponents that score more toward the average, pulling the Points Against total up.
A team with High Points Against (compared to league average) is an “unlucky owner.” We expect this person’s schedule to ease up, as the Points Against total is pulled closer towards the average.
The end standings should be representative of Points For. This ideal result removes the bias of luck in Head-to-Head competition over time. The difference between the Points For standings and the actual standings can be seen as the statistical standard error of the estimate. Represented by the formula
σm=(σ/√N)
Where the error decreases when σ, the standard deviation also decreases (occurs with regression to the mean of increased number of matchups) and also when N (number of owners) increases.
My Favorite Value Plays this week are:
WR T.Y. Hilton (IND) (vs. Packers)
Hilton is the 4th highest projected WR on fantasyfootballanalytics.net this week. He is truly a boom or bust play each week. With a sure to be high scoring passing matchup against the Packers, I think that this week will be a “boom.”
WR Michael Thomas (NO) (vs. 49ers)
Thomas comes in with extreme value on daily fantasy websites despite being one of the most consistent Wide Receivers this season (Ranked 9th among WRs on ESPN’s Consistency Rankings). He also has one of the lowest risk values this week on our website helping to confirm the “safe play.”
RB Charcandrick West (KC) (vs. Jaguars)
Spencer Ware is OUT, as is Jamaal Charles. This is West’s first chance at the lead back role this season, but he has had tremendous success in the past under this role. The matchup is great too as the Jaguars have allowed a rushing touchdown each of the previous 4 weeks.
Thank you!
Amazing information! Thank you very much!
Hello, I’ve been a monthly subscriber and I just renewed my subscription, and the projection app isnt allowing me to compare players. Its all just referring to me as “free user” so I wanted to know if I’m missing all the perks of being a member?
Your account shows up as active on my end. Have you tried clearing your cache and logging in again? We have more trouble shooting tips here: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/about-the-site/faq#appNotLoading.
I’ve tried logging out and logging back in numerous times. I’ve cleared all my cache as well. I’ve even tried re-entering my credit card information, nothing seems to work. When I first get to the projection app, it just shows the top of the table, no players. I have to manually go to load (which i always do in the first place) and then the players will show up. When I get to this point, I like to compare players but it wont let me.
it also continues to say that I’m a “free account”….I’ve been paying for this since the beginning of the season and I would love to keep that going! This app helps me so much!
We are working to resolve this issue right now and it should be fixed shortly.