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Fantasy Football Analytics

Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 7

8
  • by Michael Griebe
  • in Gold Mining · Projections · R · Weekly
  • — 21 Oct, 2015

Welcome to week 7. The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, FOX Sports, NumberFire, FantasySharks, ESPN and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article was collected on 10/20/15. For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

Standard Scoring League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Todd Gurley, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, Joseph Randle and Knile Davis are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Chris Ivory, Justin Forsett, Mark Ingram, Bishop Sankey and Knile Davis are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Todd Gurley, Dion Lewis, Antonio Andrews, Darren McFadden and Ahmad Bradshaw are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

    plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • LeVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, Charcandrick West and Joseph Randle are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Devonta Freeman, Justin Forsett, Dexter McCluster, David Johnson and Bishop Sankey are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Dion Lewis, Antonio Andrews, Darren McFadden, Bilal Powell and Ryan Mathews are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-3

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Mike Evans, Anquan Boldin and Sammy Watkins are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Steve Smith, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Rishard Matthews and Andrew Hawkins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston, Kamar Aiken, Sammy Watkins and Chris Hogan are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-4

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

  • Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Terrance Williams, Anquan Boldin and Robert Woods are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
    • T.Y. Hilton, John Brown, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans and Andrew Hawkins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
    • On the other hand, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston and Nate Washington are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.


plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-5

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— Michael Griebe

I'm an Economist, R Coder, Entrepreneur, Web-Dabbler, and Fantasy Football Enthusiast.

8 Comments

  1. Julian Strom says:
    October 22, 2015 at 1:09 pm

    For players with large upside – that is determined solely through statistics correct? Like Danny Woodhead has large upside but that depends on Melvin Gordon correct?
    Awesome website btw!

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      October 23, 2015 at 12:48 pm

      For more info how floor and ceiling are calculated, see here:
      https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2014/06/custom-rankings-and-projections-for-your-league.html

      Reply
  2. Jeremy says:
    October 24, 2015 at 4:55 am

    What is this based on and how often is it updated?
    I was looking for partners with some basic site and tool ‘ just to give it that feel. That however is way off!!!!!
    I’ve rapidly been gaining followers and plan on launching the sale of individual players instead of lineups. Hope to hear back from you

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      October 25, 2015 at 5:02 pm

      See our projections tool, which is updated regularly here:
      http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/projections

      Reply
  3. Justin Schneider says:
    October 24, 2015 at 2:42 pm

    Is there any way to export the projection round up in an excel or csv format? I know the plots are there as images above now. I was wondering and figured I would ask.

    Thank you!

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      October 25, 2015 at 5:04 pm

      Yes, click “Download” in the top right: http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/projections

      Reply
  4. Sherry E says:
    October 29, 2015 at 6:29 pm

    Do you ever go back and evaluate the amalgamated projections vs. the actuals? I think that could be very interesting to see, week to week!

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      October 31, 2015 at 2:56 pm

      We have examined accuracy of historical seasonal projections: https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2015/02/best-fantasy-football-projections-2015.html. Examining the historical accuracy of weekly projections is on our to-do list.

      Reply

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