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Fantasy Football Analytics

Week 8 WR Uncertainty Projections

0
  • by Chad Wittman
  • in Projections · Risk
  • — 23 Oct, 2013

Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for WRs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.

The data below conveys the degree to which experts disagree about WR’s value (PPR) for Week 8. This week, I decided to only include Floor, Avg, & Ceiling. You can get an idea of the standard deviation by examining the difference across these 3 metrics.

Name Floor Avg Ceiling
Calvin Johnson 20.5 25.3 30.1
Dez Bryant 20.2 22.6 25.0
DeSean Jackson 18.8 21.4 24.0
Jordy Nelson 18.7 21.3 23.9
Victor Cruz 18.5 21.3 24.1
A.J. Green 18.2 21.6 25.0
Demaryius Thomas 17.9 20.4 22.9
Pierre Garcon 16.9 19.7 22.5
Wes Welker 16.0 18.7 21.4
Eric Decker 15.4 18.4 21.4
Antonio Brown 15.1 18.1 21.1
Vincent Jackson 14.8 18.7 22.6
Jarrett Boykin 14.1 17.9 21.7
Justin Blackmon 13.7 17.6 21.5
Marques Colston 13.4 15.7 18.0
Larry Fitzgerald 12.8 16.1 19.4
Steve Smith 12.6 15.1 17.6
Cecil Shorts 12.1 14.7 17.3
Terrance Williams 11.9 15.3 18.7
Denarius Moore 11.9 14.1 16.3
Anquan Boldin 11.3 14.7 18.1
Golden Tate 11.2 13.4 15.6
Mike Wallace 10.9 12.1 13.3
Rueben Randle 10.8 13.7 16.6
Harry Douglas 10.4 14.0 17.6
Steve Johnson 10.4 13.7 17.0
Jeremy Kerley 10.4 13.0 15.6
Josh Gordon 9.8 13.1 16.4
Hakeem Nicks 9.8 13.7 17.6
Michael Floyd 9.7 11.6 13.5
Kris Durham 9.4 10.9 12.4
Brian Hartline 9.2 10.9 12.6
Julian Edelman 8.6 11.0 13.4
Greg Jennings 8.5 11.4 14.3
Brandon LaFell 7.9 10.4 12.9
Brandon Gibson 7.7 9.9 12.1
Emmanuel Sanders 7.6 10.0 12.4
Riley Cooper 7.5 9.4 11.3
Dwayne Bowe 6.9 9.9 12.9
Sidney Rice 6.9 9.7 12.5
Leonard Hankerson 6.6 7.7 8.8
Donnie Avery 6.3 7.9 9.5
Jerome Simpson 6.2 9.4 12.6
Mike Williams 6.2 8.1 10.0
Marvin Jones 6.1 8.7 11.3
Doug Baldwin 6.0 7.4 8.8
Rod Streater 5.9 7.6 9.3
Robert Woods 5.8 7.0 8.2
Kenbrell Thompkins 5.7 9.3 12.9
Mike Brown 5.3 8.3 11.3
Jerricho Cotchery 5.1 6.4 7.7
Kenny Stills 5.1 6.7 8.3
Santana Moss 5.0 6.1 7.2
Greg Little 4.9 6.3 7.7
Jason Avant 4.9 7.1 9.3
Aaron Dobson 4.6 6.6 8.6
Dexter McCluster 4.6 5.6 6.6
Austin Pettis 4.4 8.3 12.2
Andre Roberts 4.1 5.6 7.1
Tavon Austin 4.0 6.3 8.6
Davone Bess 4.0 5.4 6.8
Chris Givens 3.8 5.6 7.4
T.J. Graham 3.6 4.7 5.8
Cordarrelle Patterson 3.3 4.6 5.9
Mohamed Sanu 3.2 5.1 7.0

Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.

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Tags: uncertainty

— Chad Wittman

Chad has played fantasy football for 10 years. Finding himself knee deep in statistics at his job, he has been compelled to apply statistical learning to one of his favorite pastimes. Chad is a Redskins fan living in a Seahawks city.

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