Week 11 RBs Uncertainty Projections
0Each week, I take 7 different fantasy football projections (PPR) for RBs and take a look at the uncertainty in their projections.
What Is This?
The data below conveys the degree to which projection experts & algorithms disagree about RB’s value (PPR) for Week 11. I provided two tables, the first looks at who the experts disagree about the most, the second provides more detailed information and organizes the chart by the “Floor” projection.
How Is This Useful?
This table is best used when you’re between two players of same general skill & expected output. If you’re in need of a “safer” pick this week, go with the less +/- uncertainty. If you need a “go big or go home” type of week — go with the guy with the high +/-. You can also use this when looking over the waiver wire.
I’ve highlighted a few interesting names, feel free to comment and I can add some bolded players. We post this and more at https://fantasyfootballanalytics.net[1]
| Name | FPTS | +/- FPTS ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 21.9 | 3.9 |
| Rashad Jennings | 14.0 | 3.7 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 8.6 | 3.5 |
| Pierre Thomas | 14.9 | 3.5 |
| Shane Vereen | 10.0 | 3.5 |
| Trent Richardson | 10.3 | 3.5 |
| Frank Gore | 19.3 | 3.4 |
| Shonn Greene | 6.4 | 3.4 |
| Adrian Peterson | 20.3 | 3.3 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 9.4 | 3.2 |
| Eddie Lacy | 16.9 | 3.1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 17.0 | 3.1 |
| Mark Ingram | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Andre Ellington | 15.4 | 3.0 |
| Donald Brown | 10.7 | 3.0 |
| Reggie Bush | 18.3 | 3.0 |
| Chris Johnson | 16.6 | 2.9 |
| Matt Forte | 18.3 | 2.9 |
| Mike Tolbert | 8.3 | 2.8 |
| Danny Woodhead | 16.7 | 2.7 |
| Darren Sproles | 14.6 | 2.7 |
| LeSean McCoy | 19.3 | 2.7 |
| Andre Brown | 15.6 | 2.6 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11.3 | 2.6 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 6.9 | 2.6 |
| Ryan Mathews | 10.4 | 2.6 |
| Ben Tate | 15.3 | 2.4 |
| Joique Bell | 6.9 | 2.4 |
| Lamar Miller | 10.9 | 2.4 |
| Bilal Powell | 7.0 | 2.3 |
| Chris Ivory | 10.7 | 2.3 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 19.1 | 2.3 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6.0 | 2.2 |
| Fred Jackson | 11.6 | 2.1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 11.3 | 2.1 |
| Brian Leonard | 11.0 | 1.9 |
| Daniel Thomas | 4.6 | 1.9 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7.0 | 1.9 |
| Giovani Bernard | 16.0 | 1.9 |
| Alfred Morris | 15.0 | 1.8 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 15.0 | 1.8 |
| Marcel Reece | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| Steven Jackson | 9.6 | 1.8 |
| James Starks | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| Ray Rice | 10.9 | 1.6 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9.1 | 1.5 |
| Dennis Johnson | 4.7 | 1.3 |
| Montee Ball | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Willis McGahee | 3.1 | 1.1 |
Additional Details:
| Name | Min | Floor ↓ | Avg | Ceiling | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 15.0 | 18.0 | 21.9 | 25.8 | 28.0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 17.0 | 17.0 | 20.3 | 23.6 | 27.0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 17.0 | 16.8 | 19.1 | 21.4 | 23.0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 15.0 | 16.6 | 19.3 | 22.0 | 23.0 |
| Frank Gore | 16.0 | 15.9 | 19.3 | 22.7 | 26.0 |
| Matt Forte | 14.0 | 15.4 | 18.3 | 21.2 | 22.0 |
| Reggie Bush | 15.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 21.3 | 23.0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 14.0 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 17.9 | 19.0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 14.0 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 19.4 | 21.0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 13.0 | 13.9 | 17.0 | 20.1 | 22.0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 13.0 | 13.8 | 16.9 | 20.0 | 21.0 |
| Chris Johnson | 14.0 | 13.7 | 16.6 | 19.5 | 21.0 |
| Alfred Morris | 13.0 | 13.2 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 18.0 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 12.0 | 13.2 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 18.0 |
| Andre Brown | 13.0 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 18.2 | 20.0 |
| Ben Tate | 12.0 | 12.9 | 15.3 | 17.7 | 18.0 |
| Andre Ellington | 12.0 | 12.4 | 15.4 | 18.4 | 19.0 |
| Darren Sproles | 10.0 | 11.9 | 14.6 | 17.3 | 18.0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 11.0 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 18.4 | 20.0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 10.0 | 10.3 | 14.0 | 17.7 | 20.0 |
| Fred Jackson | 10.0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 16.0 |
| Ray Rice | 9.0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 7.0 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| Brian Leonard | 9.0 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8.0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 13.9 | 16.0 |
| Lamar Miller | 8.0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 14.0 |
| Chris Ivory | 8.0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 15.0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 6.0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| Steven Jackson | 7.0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 12.0 |
| Donald Brown | 8.0 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 17.0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7.0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| Trent Richardson | 7.0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 17.0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5.0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 14.0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6.0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 16.0 |
| Mike Tolbert | 4.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 13.0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5.0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 15.0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5.0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4.0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| Joique Bell | 2.0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3.0 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3.0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 10.0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Marcel Reece | 2.0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 8.0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| James Starks | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Montee Ball | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Sources: CBS Sports (3 Analysts), ESPN, FFToday, Bloomberg Sports, FantasySharks.
