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Fantasy Football Analytics

Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 13

4
  • by Michael Griebe
  • in Gold Mining · Projections · Theory · Weekly
  • — 26 Nov, 2014
The graph below summarizes the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS’s Dave Richard, Fantasy Football Sharks, CBS’s Jamey Eisenberg, Fantasy Football Today, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Picking Pros and Fox Sports.

Standard Scoring Leagues

Week 13 Wide Receivers

From this graph be sure to notice:

  • Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, John Brown, Eric Decker and Eddie Royal are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Denard Robinson, Julian Edelman, Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle and Andrew Hawkins are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, T.Y. Hilton, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon and Larry Fitzgerald are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-2

PPR Leagues

Week 13 Wide Receivers

From this graph be sure to notice:

  • Demaryius Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon LaFell, John Brown and Pierre Garcon are the five players with the largest upside (as measured from their (pseudo)medians). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.
  • Denard Robinson, Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Rueben Randle and Cecil Shorts are the players with the smallest downside, which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.
  • On the other hand, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon, Percy Harvin and Larry Fitzgerald are the five players with the largest downside this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-4
For more details on WR gold mining and how to interpret the graphs above, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining.

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— Michael Griebe

I'm an Economist, R Coder, Entrepreneur, Web-Dabbler, and Fantasy Football Enthusiast.

4 Comments

  1. Derek says:
    December 1, 2014 at 2:44 pm

    This is great! Any chance of gold mining articles for the other positions?

    Reply
    • Isaac Petersen says:
      December 2, 2014 at 7:13 pm

      Hey Derek,

      We’re working on the other positions. Hope to have them included soon.

      Thanks for the nudge 🙂
      -Isaac

      Reply
      • Derek says:
        December 3, 2014 at 3:44 am

        No problem.

        Reply
  2. Derek says:
    December 3, 2014 at 3:46 am

    I hadn’t noticed the posts requesting the very same thing when I wrote that. These articles are very much appreciated. Again, great work!

    Reply

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