Under/Over Whelming Wide Receivers
0As of the conclusion of Week 4 2013, we’ve been able to collect 4 weeks of targeting information for wideouts. In a PPR league, it’s imperative to understand wide receivers and their stats.
You should be keeping a close tally on targets week in and week out. You should also be paying close attention to how many of those targets were hauled in.
Below is a table of players data from 2010-2012 and their performance thus far in 2013. This historical data serves as our baseline for the WRs typical ability to haul in targets. We use their baseline against this years performance to see how they may trend the rest of the season.
Players with a high positive differential are marked in red, they are outside the standard deviation and therefore likely to decrease in Rec % in 2013. These players you’ll want to sell high.
Players with a negative differential and highlighted in green are likely to start improving.
| Player | Rec % All | Rec % 2013 | Difference |
| Eddie Royal | 52.2 | 79 | 51.34% |
| A.J. Jenkins | 33.3 | 50 | 50.15% |
| Jacoby Ford | 54.8 | 80 | 45.99% |
| DeVier Posey | 52.2 | 75 | 43.68% |
| Rishard Matthews | 61.5 | 83.3 | 35.45% |
| Jacoby Jones | 56.1 | 75 | 33.69% |
| Mike Brown | 25 | 33.3 | 33.2% |
| Doug Baldwin | 60.1 | 80 | 33.11% |
| Tandon Doss | 34.4 | 44.4 | 29.07% |
| Andre Caldwell | 58.5 | 75 | 28.21% |
| Jermaine Kearse | 58.95 | 75 | 27.23% |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 51.4 | 65 | 26.46% |
| Denarius Moore | 45.8 | 57.7 | 25.98% |
| Brandon Gibson | 59 | 74.1 | 25.59% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 60.9 | 76.3 | 25.29% |
| Brian Hartline | 57.9 | 72.4 | 25.04% |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 40 | 50 | 25% |
| Reggie Wayne | 58.8 | 73.3 | 24.66% |
| Nate Burleson | 66.7 | 82.6 | 23.84% |
| Dwayne Harris | 57.9 | 71.4 | 23.32% |
| Miles Austin | 58.1 | 71.4 | 22.89% |
| Rod Streater | 55.9 | 68.4 | 22.36% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 50.7 | 61.8 | 21.89% |
| Vincent Brown | 54 | 65.2 | 20.74% |
| Antonio Brown | 63.9 | 76.2 | 19.25% |
| Keshawn Martin | 38.5 | 45.5 | 18.18% |
| Julian Edelman | 67 | 79.1 | 18.06% |
| Earl Bennett | 60.7 | 71.4 | 17.63% |
| Nate Washington | 54 | 63.3 | 17.22% |
| Damian Williams | 55.1 | 63.6 | 15.43% |
| Anquan Boldin | 58.1 | 66.7 | 14.8% |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | 47.2 | 53.9 | 14.19% |
| Pierre Garcon | 58.1 | 65.9 | 13.43% |
| Stephen Hill | 47.9 | 54.2 | 13.15% |
| Brandon LaFell | 56.6 | 63.6 | 12.37% |
| Jordy Nelson | 69.7 | 78.3 | 12.34% |
| Eric Decker | 61.1 | 68.6 | 12.27% |
| Jerome Simpson | 53.3 | 59.4 | 11.44% |
| Andre Johnson | 66.1 | 72.3 | 9.38% |
| Julio Jones | 63.1 | 68.8 | 9.03% |
| Brandon Marshall | 59.1 | 64.3 | 8.8% |
| Donnie Avery | 46.2 | 50 | 8.23% |
| Ryan Broyles | 69.4 | 75 | 8.07% |
| DeSean Jackson | 52.7 | 56.8 | 7.78% |
| Jeremy Kerley | 59.9 | 64.3 | 7.35% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 52.5 | 56.3 | 7.24% |
| Danny Amendola | 66.8 | 71.4 | 6.89% |
| Stephen Burton | 54.6 | 58.3 | 6.78% |
| Marques Colston | 67.9 | 72.4 | 6.63% |
| Kendall Wright | 62.7 | 66.7 | 6.38% |
| Andre Roberts | 53.5 | 56.5 | 5.61% |
| Josh Morgan | 60.9 | 64.3 | 5.58% |
| James Jones | 64.7 | 68.2 | 5.41% |
| Harry Douglas | 58.3 | 60.9 | 4.46% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 56.9 | 59.3 | 4.22% |
| Torrey Smith | 48 | 50 | 4.17% |
| Michael Floyd | 53 | 55.2 | 4.15% |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 55.7 | 57.7 | 3.59% |
| Wes Welker | 69.9 | 72.2 | 3.29% |
| Mike Wallace | 58.5 | 60 | 2.56% |
| Kris Durham | 44.4 | 45.5 | 2.48% |
| Travis Benjamin | 48.9 | 50 | 2.25% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 65.3 | 66.7 | 2.14% |
| Cecil Shorts | 49.1 | 50 | 1.83% |
| Clyde Gates | 38.1 | 37.5 | -1.57% |
| Austin Pettis | 59.1 | 58.1 | -1.69% |
| Dwayne Bowe | 55.2 | 54.2 | -1.81% |
| Mike Williams | 52.7 | 51.7 | -1.9% |
| Victor Cruz | 61.8 | 60.5 | -2.1% |
| Deonte Thompson | 81.8 | 80 | -2.2% |
| Greg Jennings | 62.4 | 60.9 | -2.4% |
| Dexter McCluster | 62.9 | 61.1 | -2.86% |
| Santana Moss | 59.5 | 57.7 | -3.03% |
| Riley Cooper | 45.9 | 44.4 | -3.27% |
| Leonard Hankerson | 64.8 | 62.5 | -3.55% |
| Josh Gordon | 52 | 50 | -3.85% |
| Golden Tate | 62.1 | 59.1 | -4.83% |
| Jarius Wright | 59.2 | 55.6 | -6.08% |
| Chris Givens | 51.4 | 48.2 | -6.23% |
| Malcom Floyd | 58.4 | 54.6 | -6.51% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 56.4 | 52.6 | -6.74% |
| Steve Smith | 57.8 | 53.9 | -6.75% |
| Davone Bess | 60.1 | 55.9 | -6.99% |
| A.J. Green | 56.3 | 52 | -7.64% |
| Roddy White | 60.2 | 55.6 | -7.64% |
| Stevie Johnson | 55.7 | 51.4 | -7.72% |
| Marvin Jones | 54.9 | 50 | -8.93% |
| Calvin Johnson | 59.2 | 52.5 | -11.32% |
| Rueben Randle | 54.6 | 47.8 | -12.45% |
| Kyle Williams | 55.4 | 47.4 | -14.44% |
| Sidney Rice | 53.1 | 45 | -15.25% |
| Marlon Moore | 39.4 | 33.3 | -15.48% |
| Randall Cobb | 75.4 | 63.6 | -15.65% |
| Vincent Jackson | 49.9 | 41.5 | -16.83% |
| Hakeem Nicks | 59.3 | 48 | -19.06% |
| Robert Meachem | 61.8 | 50 | -19.09% |
| Jason Avant | 67.5 | 54.6 | -19.11% |
| Santonio Holmes | 51.6 | 41.7 | -19.19% |
| Brandon Stokley | 71.6 | 56.3 | -21.37% |
| Kevin Ogletree | 54.2 | 40 | -26.2% |
| Greg Little | 51.2 | 34.4 | -32.81% |
| T.J. Graham | 50 | 33.3 | -33.4% |
| Kenny Britt | 53.2 | 31.3 | -41.17% |
| Lance Moore | 65.6 | 36.4 | -44.51% |
| Aldrick Robinson | 48 | 16.7 | -65.21% |
A few key players to keep your eye on:
Stock Falling
Eddie Royal
Doug Baldwin
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Demaryius Thomas
Stock Rising
Lance Moore
Santonio Holmes
Hakeem Nicks
Vincent Jackson
Randall Cobb
It should be noted this graph does not include Rookies, nor players with 100% Rec %. Feel free to look through the graph for individual players to see how they may trend.
